The Anti-Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
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@vikas_sinha ji just wanted to check your views on latest developments in Exicom. They recently announced acquisition of Tritium (a big global player in EV charging that declared insolvency in Apr-24) for 300 cr and are now raising 125 cr in debt for the same . I personally find this debt funded strategy for international expansion a bit too agressive given that they just raised funds through IPO? Also, since Indian EV market itself is at a nascent stage, wouldn’t they have been better off focusing on domestic market itself first? Further, I’m a bit worried by their Q1 results, especially the QoQ and Yoy decline in EV segment revenues.

Would love to have your thoughts. I am personally invested in this one, but a bit worried with these recent developments.

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48x combined portfolio gain means CAGR of 163%, that’s really very good or my mathematics is poor here :slight_smile:

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677

Actually its a 2.63 annual multiplier for last 4 years. I am also amazed to see. :joy::joy::joy: Some contributors Tata Motors 10X, AGI green 5X, SHIL 5X, Apollo Tyre 4X, Kalyan running 6X with large Capital still holding 25% of PF, Force Motors 8X. Rotating capital was the key with new buy with large base. Also leverage played an important role here. 50% of PF average all the time.

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678

As long as Exicom is pursuing stronger growth by exploring the international more mature ev market I don’t think it’s an issue. They are getting more technical inputs from the experience with their inorganic growth.

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679

Amazing returns there :money_mouth_face: congratulations! :clap: looks like you have great entries and good exit timings, with a high level of churn/rotation as you describe. Suggest that you should start a portfolio thread here at valuepickr to share your ideas. :blush: How long have you been invested?

The best I could manage from the bottom of march 2020 is about 38x return, about 150% cagr, all time is just 37% though with a rocky start in 2017-18. It’s gotten to the point of lesser interest now after this dream run. I don’t care much about portfolio concentration now since I am lazy. Conviction is hard to build up to large position.

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680

Thanks Vikas for kind words, though there is no PF thread i started, i am sharing my strategy on different threads.

I started active investing in 2013 though i was in market before however was active heavily in F&O and holding periods were low.

From 2014 to 2017 my gains were 20X at peak, Nov 17 i sensed euphoria and started selling, cashed out 40% of PF to clear my home loan, car loan, investment property loan, remaining 60% dropped by 80% till March 2020​:joy::joy::joy:

Only solace was i had paid off my loans. Yes bank was a huge setback as i sold yes bank at 10 rupees in Jan 20.

From March 20 till date its 48X returns now.

Rotation has its own pros and cons. I had entered PGEL at 300 and sold around 1100 in a year thinking its overvalued now its 5700,:joy::joy::joy:

No FOMO when i see overall performance. Covid help a lot as i could get time at home to fully track the markets and increase PF by “sam daam dand bhed” strategy. I am leveraged by 50% at all times, till now its working well I know i need to pay back once bear market starts however i keep all hated stocks in leverage so avoid much down fall and wait patiently for customer to buy monkeys at higher rate.:joy::joy:

I like your stock selection strategy and and constantly follow your PF changes.

My current PF is mostly domestic consumer oriented as i feel lot of churning is still pending. Heavy froth has built up in markets where small bike showroom SME gets 4800 cr bids for a mere 12 Cr IPO. Scary times ahead.

Still able to maintain my PF at ATH despite all selling in last month.

I was also investor in Rel power, Infra, Yes Bank and learnt a hard lesson on corporate governance, Banks and Infra are strictly no for me, never invested in last 4 years once tution classes were over after losing heavily in ADAG and Yes bank​:joy::joy::joy:

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681

Kalyan Jeweller, Samhi Hotels, ABFRL, Force Motors, LT Foods, Thomas cook, Arvind Fashions, Amber enterprises, ABCAP, AGi Green and Wockhardt are my current core holdings

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682

This is very interesting. Can you please share more about this? Where do you get the LAS from? And how do you generate cash every month to pay back the monthly interest?

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Hi Aadhar, I am using ICICI direct MTF facility, interest is paid from BTST, Intraday or positional partial sell on open positions. Its a boon in a bull market and curse in a bear market. Have paid price during 2018-19 correction hence i wouldn’t recommand to anyone.

On a positive note, whatever multiplier i have achieved is because of MTF as it has a significant contribution. Stock doesn’t know if you have bought in cash or leverage.:joy::joy:

Disciplined trade keeping aside emotions and not avoiding booking losses can have a consistent additional capital generation.

For example, I had created a 25% of PF position in MTF for Samhi Hotels between 170-184 levels with average 177, converted 50% to delivery and squared off remaining between 200-212 levels. Got 6000 stocks free. ,:joy::joy::joy:

Select only out of favour stocks or buy on a major dip in MTF as once you run in losses in MTF mind stop working.

Current market is not suited for excessive leverage as 99% of pockets look overvalued hence I have concentrated consumption oriented bets only. Govt Capex theme is strict no rightnow for me at least. Govt Finance stock trading at P/B of 7 and HDFC at 6. :joy::joy::joy:

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684

Thats great achievement. As @vikas_sinha ji mentioned it would be great if you start your own portfolio thread to share your views!

Curious after this 48x feat, I assume you have given up on day job amd now into full time investing? How has life and other decisions changed for you after this dream run? Any changes in investment strategy as well?

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Your are right @Investor_No_1 , as a disclosure i accepted severance packege last month as turning from WFH to WFO is paining me now and home to office is 2 hrs one way. It almost 27 years I served in corporate Job however one layoff incidence in 2007 changed my whole perspective towards corporate job. My networth at that time was negative as i was having home loan, car loan, personal loan, 4 credit cards. Though i got multiple Job offers however i decided that day to become financially free and get freed of corporate glut by Age 50.

By God’s grace, I can proudly declare today I have almost achieved target with zero loans and almost 2 M USD networth.

I was offered an year salary as severance pay during exit call and i happily accepted it with out any remorse.:joy::joy:

Just want to travel a lot of places before my knee joints starts paining​:joy::joy:

For all youngsters in this forum, my advice to everyone is to grow yourself financially as money is most important barring few exceptions. For a salaried its a war to buy his own time and stock investing is best by allocating your savings.

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686

@vikas_sinha sorry for too many messages, wouldn’t post further as purpose of thread need to be maintained, please share your views on India glycol, after todays announcement and upcoming expansions, valuations looks lucrative.

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You should start your own thread. Yours looks like a unique journey, and I have read your comments before, so if you can post even just your thoughts, there will be something that can be learnt. I have read threads where members have posted just their thoughts and perspectives, with no talk about stocks, but are helpful, even with the generation of an idea. Yours can be the same, more so when you have been doing for many years, and have experienced many things.

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Medium level churn in PF. Have sold off Shivalik bimetal and Permanent magnet, bought NIBE with the money. Also have sold off Godawari and Ugro, invested in Oriana and Sky gold.

Shivalik was the oldest holding, it was not expected to perform due to the EV sale slowdown. Similar to the story for Permanent magnet. Nibe is growing dramatically and lesser chances of fraud with the increase in the size.

Ugro was the second oldest holding again not performing due to the high level of risk with peak interest rates. Godawari was facing risk of Chinese slowdown and less ore sales. Oriana is growing dramatically and lesser chances of fraud with the increase in the size. Sky gold is due to reading this blog.

Same guy @shankarnath who wrote about Samhi. :+1:

Nibe is likely getting subcontract orders from bigger vendors like LnT likely due to the rules around defence tenders regarding the SME promotion. It’s politically connected maybe.

Oriana is solar power contractors like KPIGREEN, but growing faster, venturing into hydrogen production etc.

Also sold off Anuh and bought BLS International. Anuh was bought for hedge against the more risky ones but it has very low disclosure. Better to buy more popular stocks like BLS, world’s 3rd biggest visa processing company.

The reason behind BLS is this same source as well.

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689

Hello Vikas ji - also check out Zaggle. SaaS play, revenue visibility, unique business.

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691

Many red flags…

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Latest folio status:
CAGR approx 35% since inception, 7 years ago. Currently 2% down from previous peak (considering the withdrawn amount too in calculating). 90% up in past year.
Total 25 stocks.

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Sold out Caplin and added Kaynes, it’s going to be a bit of patience games, can get stuck in losses for few months, very expensive. Kaynes is electronic manufacturing services provider, its setting up a chip testing and assembly plant soon, should grow due to the government subsidy. Caplin had reached a high point and was just a safety bet, pharma seems to be peaking now.

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693

Vikasji, What about valuation of Kaynas, its sitting at roof,

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This one has great expectations backed by good execution, so I don’t think valuation will derate much whilst earning growth happens. Might need to put it in the long-term category though!

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Great Diwali cleaning done!

Sold off Indraprastha medical, Natco, Gujarat themis, Indigo, Kotyark, Sharda motors and Time techno.

Bought Cosmic CRF, Motilal oswal, Waaree energies, EFC, Venus pipes, Macfos and Shakti pump, in order of decreasing weight.

Indraprastha medical had crossed my target, further return is expected to be muted due to lack of expansion plans.
Natco is big pharma which is bit complex for me.
Gujarat themis growth trigger is bit too slow to play out.
Indigo margin pressure doesn’t look good, together with the selling from big promoter exit.
Kotyark seems to be facing delays in government policy regarding biodiesel.
Sharda can face issues with the slowdown in auto industry.
Time techno had increased quite a bit and further growth can be slow.

Cosmic crf is mainly in the railways parts business and seems to be growing fast with takeover of bankrupt businesses.
Motilal oswal fin has a good broking and wealth management business, valuation seems good.
Waaree energies is a bit of a wild card entry, just happened to be listed on the day when I was in the middle of the trades with cash on hand.
Efc seems to have good growth plan for the office space rental, interior fitting and the new furniture businesses.
Venus has added good capacity with sales for industry capex expected to do well.
Macfos is in the retail market for electronics parts, seems business can scale up with more technical products being built in India.
Shakti pumps can perhaps be bigger winner from solar pumps tenders.

Disc: unqualified to advise, hence please do your own research.

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