Hi Vikas Ji,
Many thanks for sharing here. Just join this awesome community.
The one that caught my eye from your portfolio is RBM Infra, any specific reason for this stock in the portfolio?
I need your view on Tinna Rubber as well.
Thanks,
Amar P
@AmarP welcome! RBM is very simplistic minded view of the refineries at Jamnagar needing periodic maintenance, also expansion to meet the demands from diversion of Russian crude via Indian shores. Also they seem capable and interested in more general infrastructure works. Valuations though are going to be expensive till order book gets implemented for the next one year or so.
Tinna is also expensive now but the EPR theme plus general market growth will be playing out stronger than expected for many years.
Hi @vikas_sinha What do you think about All E Technologies. Their revenue projections are looking very good to me.
Thanks Vikas Ji, for the insigts. I know the company’s management as I have worked in RIL Jamnagar and awarded them many contracts. In terms of financial stability and project execution, my experience was not top-class. They always struggled to make even the labour payments on time and were very keen to grab business, even at a loss.
Disc: My own opinion, Not the thoughts to influence
Yes Mr Vikas, though I’m also trying to get more insights on how the CPaaS can scale up the growth rate owing to privacy concerns related to messaging service. However, the opportunity for tickets booking etc thru these services and reminders like Refilling grocery, insurance premiums etc are also gaining traction. Need to see with Proximus in driving seat, how this shapes out. It also seems Mr Gupta was running out of ideas to give a scale-up to Route.
Thanks
Latest folio status:
CAGR approx 36% since inception, 6.75 years ago. Currently 2% up from previous peak (considering the withdrawn amount too in calculating). 115% up in past year.
Total 26 stocks.
2 stocks sold off completely are Beta drugs and Satin credit, just taking out money for buying a house, need to sell 14% of total folio, so trimmed 10% proportionately equally from all the rest.
Money is just a number, you have to stop counting and start spending to enjoy. I am just buying out my house owner to avoid shifting from my rental place. Was liking it so much to think of buying at the time of moving in 3 years ago. But chose to invest in the market.
Pharma weight is already quite good in folio, with Caplin, Natco, Gujarat Themis, Anuh, plus 3b black bio too and Indraprastha medical, if healthcare sector is considered.
NBFCs need to be weighed by their overall quality and now only two survive in folio, Ugro and Arman, but barely.
Overall market is bit over heated, but best to stay put, volatile times of course but likely good year(s) ahead.
Yellow line is the zero line in the graphic.
Company name | Last price | Cost per share | % of Total | Return % pa | Total Return % | Current Return % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinna Rubber And Infrastructure Ltd. | 1788 | 57 | 11.0 | 315 | 3661 | 3022 |
KPI Green Energy Ltd. | 1065 | 30 | 10.6 | 188 | 5430 | 3442 |
E2E Networks Ltd. | 1696 | 614 | 7.0 | 416 | 202 | 176 |
Shilchar Technologies Ltd. | 6321 | 2378 | 6.6 | 377 | 187 | 166 |
Ceinsys Tech Ltd. | 648 | 355 | 5.1 | 152 | 88 | 82 |
Zen Technologies Ltd. | 1735 | 857 | 4.7 | 274 | 109 | 103 |
Exicom Tele-Systems Ltd. | 424 | 241 | 4.2 | 303 | 89 | 76 |
Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd. | 364 | 83 | 4.0 | 83 | 545 | 340 |
Sharda Motor Industries Ltd. | 2477 | 1231 | 4.0 | 81 | 124 | 101 |
3B BlackBio Dx Ltd | 1181 | 359 | 3.7 | 59 | 441 | 229 |
Indraprastha Medical Corporation Ltd. | 319 | 188 | 3.5 | 165 | 74 | 70 |
Azad Engineering Ltd. | 1640 | 1162 | 3.4 | 126 | 52 | 41 |
Interglobe Aviation Ltd. | 4290 | 3197 | 3.3 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
Time Technoplast Ltd. | 327 | 220 | 3.0 | 42 | 47 | 48 |
Natco Pharma Ltd. | 1440 | 1091 | 2.9 | 79 | 33 | 32 |
Ugro Capital Ltd. | 252 | 197 | 2.7 | 18 | 69 | 28 |
Godawari Power And Ispat Ltd. | 1103 | 764 | 2.7 | 14 | 55 | 44 |
Anuh Pharma Ltd. | 243 | 204 | 2.6 | 43 | 21 | 19 |
HBL Power Systems Ltd. | 611 | 580 | 2.5 | 10 | 5 | 5 |
Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. | 1501 | 806 | 2.1 | 71 | 158 | 86 |
Permanent Magnets Ltd. | 1035 | 1058 | 2.0 | -2 | -1 | -2 |
Arman Financial Services Ltd. | 1756 | 2234 | 2.0 | -17 | -23 | -21 |
Kotyark Industries Ltd. | 886 | 1249 | 2.0 | -49 | -31 | -29 |
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd. | 547 | 134 | 1.8 | 52 | 437 | 307 |
Sanghvi Movers Ltd. | 835 | 1037 | 1.7 | -30 | -18 | -19 |
RBM Infracon Ltd. | 644 | 667 | 1.2 | -9 | -5 | -3 |
TOTAL (weighted average) | 100 | 36 | 219 | 104 |
Hi Vikas,
Thanks for sharing this. On a lighter note, what has been the appreciation in house value in percentage terms? I’m sure you are better off having invested in the market than buying a house 3 years ago
Appreciation in house value is 90%, and in folio value is 200%, pretty good margin, over past 3 years.
Many Congratulations @vikas_sinha on the 2 30+ Baggers : Tinna Rubber and KPI Green. Growth like this creates serious differentiated wealth for an individual. Please do share the overall process from indentifying to riding the 30 bagger, starting and current allocations and what incremental actions you undertook as the positions got bigger and bigger.
Both had a stupendous run in earnings and then PE rerating over the last 3 years alone.
Tinna Rubber:
KPI Green Energy:
Congratulations Vikas for your new house and a great run in the market.
A lot of YouTube influencers advocate buying a house on mortgage even if one has the money to buy it outright. This is because mortgage rates are in line with inflation while the same money in market would yield better returns in the long run. Sounds logical to me but in times of downturn can also bite us when paying emi by withdrawing monthly from market. What do you think?
Thank you @Prdnt_investor
I should have restated the above explanation in all subsequent posting also. Apologies for the laziness! My portfolio in value-research and trendlyne.com both just reflect the IT department view on the pricing, which is not correct in my POV. But it takes extra effort to calculate and manually update the folio data.
KPI green was bought in overwhelming majority chunk in August 2022, and last buy was September 2023. So it’s one of the rare stock where the conviction lasted this long. It was easy, heard about it somewhere. Then checked KP Energy, the older listed group company was verified by @prasenjitp04, a pretty famous investor, posting here on valuepickr. Just that wind energy turned low profile and solar kicked up a storm instead in the meanwhile. In all the solar sector hype I found this very cheap also.
Tinna was identified as per running some screens, or somewhere, do not recall exactly. Then a few weeks later, luckily @sahil_vi posted some good research about this here at valuepickr. I began to know and trust more, but rejected it as not a ‘value-able’ enough find, for few weeks more. The entire chunk of the investment was bought in January 2023. Tyre recycling ESR mandate was just starting and supposed to be 100% I think by 2030. Plus they were the largest of the sector, with international reach, though European subsidiary continues to be dormant still.
Generally speaking, if at all you are still interested, since as per me these are only about 12x now. The method of picking is fast growing, bought (relatively) early. Or GARP for short, thanks to Peter Lynch.
Both were ranking about the middle in my 12-14 stock portfolio, bit closer to the top, by initial investment size. I have booked 70% of KPIGREEN because I want to explore more fast growing stocks, valuation wise. I have booked only 30% of Tinna mainly to keep folio a bit balanced, also bit pleasantly surprised by the rerating here, and just kept watching. The churn happened mainly in December 2023 when switched to promising ones like Shilchar, E2E, Ceinsys, Zen tech etc.
Keeping holding till there is enough juice left in the valuation, while minding the forward earnings (‘growth’), compared to at least better than any current ideas being evaluated. Given risk and switching costs too.
Disc: unqualified to advise, hence please do your own research.
Hi Vikas! First of all huge congrats for such great investments and finally buying out the house! Really happy for you…
May I know when and why did you exit Beta Drugs completely? I believe it has great prospects in the times ahead of it.
Thanks @MarketYogi leverage is a big no! I started investing with the great small cap carnage of 2018 seeing a 40% drawdown and stayed invested in 2020 crash seeing a total 70% drawdown!!
Markets can remain irrational longer than you think. Yes, 2020 was a V shaped recovery and macros are vastly different now than in 2018 but history can repeat!!
As you see I am too lazy and not agile enough to buy and sell fast enough to mitigate risky situations. Currently market has favoured me, that’s all. Not too keen on increasing the risk factor here
@HarshVijay thanks! Exactly a month ago I collected all the money required for the property deal, by selling beta drugs and rest.
Yes, its promising but personally speaking my timing was wrong, had miscalculated my math, which I wanted to correct now. Think am too lazy for SME dealing, typically my trades are once every 2 months on average and I run my orders in few minutes, liquidity can be disruptive to prices
Update:
I have sold out both Arman and Sanghvi movers, have added SAMHI hotels, bit of loss booked for taxes and want to diversify into a new sector. Thanks to @shankarnath for the idea
Samhi and other hotel related stocks seem to have a bump in Q1 which is just an anamoly i guess. The hotel sector should pick up nicely in the coming quarters. Q1 was definitely affected by the heat waves and travel to various tourist destinations had taken a backseat for sure.
Samhi on the other hand is turning around really well. I guess EIH, Airlines, IND Hotels, Rategain (SaaS) they all should see a rush in coming months.
After the continuing Firing season there is 0 to single digit hike.
Companies deferring onboarding or not honoring placement offers.
People will shift or wait for buying non necessary items like Car, Trips etc.
Focus will be on savings more.
Only Gov can go on spending spree on Infra, defence . Retailers will be hesitant.
Just My thought might be wrong
Hello Vikas. Do you see any fundamental change/ trigger in Sanghvi Movers?
Yes, since I invested, was very surprised by their guidance of ~15% growth for the next year. Two weak quarters sealed its fate. Moreover the reason is that I wanted to keep samhi hotels with a little bigger weight and so needed to choose more than one loser to sell.
Same change in my portfolio Vikas, Was very bullish on Sanghvi had entered around 800 levels and sold it at 900 to increase Samhi Hotels PF allocation. Good to see 40-50X baggers in your PF.
I am still waiting to find my more than 10X PF stock however combined PF gains in last 4 years are now close to 48X so God is kind enough. my 50-60% capital allocation goes to top 2-3 bets, till now 2 out of 3 have performed creating large alpha:joy: