Tejas Networks - Product based IT business in a favored sector?

Huawai is unofficially blacklisted.They can bid all they want, they wont get any biz nor will any supplier who uses their product.

Blacklisted by whom? People who I know are still buying them.

I disagree that dark fibre is unused, we seem to be underserved rather than unused.

Have you asked anyone who works in industry before making that assumption? Tons of unused spare capacity on middle mile, lack of fiber is in last mile, which is mostly deployed by LCOs.

Jio, GOI, Railtel is buying a few lakh KM of OFC

Teleco capex cycle is mostly over. GOI Bharatnet/NOFN has tons of completely unused capacity. Why would you put more fiber when it is unused? Like I said you should speak to someone in industry and ask them how much of their fiber capacity is being used.

wont be used in defence projects

I can’t comment on what govt does. Don’t know enough. It might even work out well for Tejas if govt or defence gives them orders.

The biggest challenge for likes of Tejas is that Huawei

Going by the commentary from tejas management I think govt has made a list of approved equipment (whitelist of equip) where the Chinese are being eliminated. This list is applicable for private telecom operators from Jul 15 2021. This is my understanding correct me if I am wrong.
I am quoting tejas management here: (https://www.tejasnetworks.com/main-control/download/tejas-earnings-call-transcript-q4fy21.pdf page 14)

Having said that private is under another law which is again motivating them to look at dversifying their supply chain which is…from June 15th onwards and you would have been reading about the trusted sources norms….they can only buy equipment from trusted sources which basically means equipment from a certain country will not be allowed to be bought by them beyond June 15th. So many of them who have a large exposure to equipment vendors from such countries are saying hey if there is an Indian company why shouldn’t I look at them because it gives me a long-term credibility and long-term assurance of supply. So I think we are seeing that benefit come to us conditional on of course these products being competitive by themselves which I think should start showing up in a positive way. But, that’s more like an indirect effect if I were to put it. But they are definitely looking to see hey why not from Indian sources.

So with this in mind competitive intensity should reduce.

Not true. There is nothing fundamentally different in 5G vs newer 4G tech(other than mmwave, whose use case is limited).

5G wavelength < 4G wavelength → means more power needed to get same coverage → more towers needed (you cant keep cranking up RF power to antenna to increase coverage as there are norms). So more towers needed. Old bankrupt towers may not be located optimally for increasing coverage so not sure how much use they are of.

Rest I agree that ARPU’s have to improve for CAPEx cycle to start. I think it will soon.

Would love to get your feedback.

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If I look at following blog. I see number of Pro’s and Some con’s. The one regarding Chip shortages is can have impact

Looks like turn around story

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Tata sons subsidiary buys controlling stake of 43%(after warrant realization) in Tejas networks at a price of Rs 258 per share with a vision of making Tejas a top-tier global telecom equipment company from India.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/7f11b5d0-b860-4bfa-b278-831d5ca07f62.pdf

P.S What I like about Tejas is their huge investment in R&D and they hire resources from top tier colleges only like IITs, IISc, BITS, DU etc. And Tejas has very low attrition rate. I researched that some of their R & D engineers stay there for more than 8 years which is unheard for an IT/Telecom company.

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Anybody got Today’s concall recording which was conducted to understand the recent strategic investments by Tata Sons? I was unable to attend it.

You can see my notes from the call:
Tata Son’s investment update:
Globally- telecom equipment is a $150+ Bn industry.
What Tata’s can provide to realise the vision: “Create a Top-Tier Global Telecom and Networking company from India”
• Global Branding and relationships
• Balance Sheet Strength
• Leverage synergies with Tata Group with access to wider global relationships
• Confidence of global Tier-1 telco customers for large contracts
• Investments in R&D through organic and inorganic routes
• Global economies-of-scale in hardware manufacturing
Post Tata’s investment:
Expand product portfolio - full end to end wireline and wireless products for 4G & 5G
Partnering with TCS in BSNL-4G tender. Tata Comm and Tata Teleservices were past customers for products. These relationships resulted in the investment
Warrants are issued so that it can be converted into shares whenever funds are needed for inorganic needs or investment
Addressable market based on current products/markets was $10B and this will increase with expansion of products and markets

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Have recently started initial positions in this scrip.

With that said, key competitive advantages can not be better underlined than in this (rather old, circa 2018) interview ‘Software is a sweet spot for our company’ - The Hindu

I quote several excerpts

“You (have to) build deep technology product companies, not services, and use India as a home market, which is a huge sandbox for you to really perfect your product and then go around the world.”

“In 5G standardization, some of the operators and the government played a key role. India standards body threw its weight and enabled India to become the seventh voting member in the world. Now that we have a say in the standards, we have come to know the standards early and we can design the products, protocols and create IP which you can actually monetize when the standards become bigger.”

“If you were to look at 15 years back in a telecom equipment probably 80% of the value came from hardware and 20% value from the software. Any country in the world which had an advantage in electronic manufacturing will win. So China did extremely well in that scenario. The next 10 years, starting from 5G and other technologies are going to be the reverse equation. In software, we are as good as anybody in the world, we do not have a disadvantage.”

"The number one sustainable advantage we have is ….if I can do $100 worth of R & D in the U.S., I can do four times the same R & D for the same dollar if I do it out of India. "

“On the same financials, for example, if you think from a gross profit angle, telecom equipment industry 20 years back, the gross profit of the industry was about 55-60%. Now over the last 20 years because of competition from China, it has become 35-40%. For this profit, you got to spend a lot in R&D and SG&A. Most of the Western world countries are not able to find enough money in R&D and as a result, they spend 30-40% on operating costs and do not have any profitability left.”

“my capex is actually R&D. R&D is manpower. So 75% of our operating cost is people cost. So the scalability of the business is very easy. We may need to hire about 1,500 people a year and hiring a few good men is not that difficult.”

Now, considering the latest developments

  • COVID impact on networks/bandwidth/connectivity requirements
  • Security concerns around Chinese equipment
  • 5G inevitability
  • TATA branding

All the points mentioned in the the old article above, suddenly have become so much more of a competitive advantage. In fact, It is beginning to look like a very strong moat, dependent solely on execution.

Request long term followers/investors of this ticket to provide their thoughts regarding current situation.

Edit: the R&D ratio of 4 times is on 2018 exchange rate. Today its probably around 7 times.

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https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/bharti-airtel-partners-with-tejas-networks-for-optical-network-expansion-11632371419806.html

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Why such low price for offer for sale?? Will anyone tender their shares?

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It’s a as per the requirement to give open offer and the intention of Tata Group is very clear to acquire majority stake.

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There is a good YouTube video on Tejas Network explaining the strategy of Tata group and the role of Tejas network into 5G and also some link to Tata Motors.
The future business Tejas may get from TCS and Tata Motors etc

The link is as below

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Very informative news
Look at the PLI portion Tejas Network got :rocket:
Also they got further PLI through some other company

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Above is the Confirmation on Tata group being the promoter of Tejas network.

Also as per the PLI scheme Tejas network and its its group AKASHASTHA technologies has got highest share in PLI

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Post offer advertisement.pdf (352.3 KB)

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Tejas Network is the only Indian company to receive approval from NCSC

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Q3 Results and call update

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The two key top management appointments from TCS And Tata Communication in Tejas is a positive.
Though the Q3 results are not good the management commented positively and the future plans seems to be bright.

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