Is it really a mental block! Some may call it a guardrail. I myself am invested in techera with 2% and i am not very comfortable with it.
Imho , the price action has such effect on us that we sometimes call it “mental block “ .and sometimes “margin of safety” .
One shouldn’t invest in 300 cr odd valued company with 5-6Y vintage based on PE. Try and see what top line and bottom line could look 5-6Y down the line, and assign an exit multiple commensurate with the business- entry barriers, customer stickiness / switching cost etc.
Can someone suggest suitable mental models for evaluating companies like TechEra? I too have doubts when I look at okayish ROCE & ROE, moderate Debt/Equity, and limited free cashflows over the last 4-5 years — typical of a heavy capex phase. At the same time, revenue and profits are now improving. Is this momentum from the orderbook? Unutilized capacity getting absorbed post-capex? Would love to understand what factors the community weighs most when evaluating early-stage, capex-heavy aerospace plays like this one.
Hey everyone, I’ve been following TechEra Engineering for a while and have recently invested. I’m a college student, and I just want to share some of my insights that I feel haven’t been discussed much on this thread. So the business model and background of the company are pretty accurately portrayed in the other posts on this thread. Advantageous factors such as tailwinds have already been discussed at length. Something I find quite interesting about TechEra Engineering is the amount of smart money holding this stock and the price at which they are holding it.
Ashish Kacholia and his consortium (Suryavanshi Commotrade & Bengal Finance) hold at least 10.53% of the stock as of the latest filings. Interestingly, since almost all of his stake was purchased in bulk deals from MAHARASHTRA DEFENCE AND AEROSPACE VENTURE FUND and the promoter himself, we can actually calculate his average share price to a near-accurate level. Out of the 10.53% stake, only for 2.29% worth of shares, do we not have information regarding the price it was purchased at. For the rest 8.24% of stake, the average share price is calculated at exactly 244.71 (You can verify this yourself by looking at total stake held and the bulk deals of Tech Era Engineering on TrendLyne)
Even if we assume the remaining 2.29% stake to be purchased at a low of 169 per share (The lowest price it was at in the period of the last filing), we get an average share price for the entire stake to be around 224-230. Therefore, you can get an idea as to what an Industry Veteran like Ashish Kacholia values this stock at, especially given the exponential return profile that he usually looks for
Raman Talwar, who is a director associated with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (he appears to be a director/designated partner/associate director of at least 10 investment companies), holds around 3.93% of the stock as of the latest filings
Avarjit Singh Birghi and Sarabpreet Kaur, who are the designated partners of KOLUMBUS FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES, hold at least 3.04% of the stock as of the latest filings
Though not explicitly mentioned in the shareholding of the company, taking a look at the recent bulk buys, we see entries of Bhoovan Soran, Mona Laroia and also specifically the former Goldman Sachs Indian Operations CEO Vijay Mohan Karnani (Current Founder of Vimana Capital whose investment philosophy is stated as a firm that invests in public equities in India using a rigorous research process that focuses on fast-growing, compliant and financially disciplined companies.)
Let’s move on to another indicator that suggests heavy accumulation of the stock. The average delivery percentage of this stock for the following periods is
1Y: 82%
6M: 79%
3M: 71%
1M: 72%
What this essentially means is that over the last 1 year, there has been very little speculative/intraday activity and a significant amount of accumulation (especially by smart money as noted above). A high delivery percentage by itself might not mean much but this combined with the shareholding profile of this stock is worth noting.
Now coming back to the fundamentals of the stock, a few members in the thread rightly noted that it is quite pointless to value this early SME stock with metrics such as P/E or other traditional metrics. The Market Cap to Sales seems to me the only rightful measure of its valuation from an absolute standpoint and at the moment that too is a measure that probably should be used only after the next set of financial results are out, as otherwise it seems to me that you are comparing the current market cap to the sales of last year (or a forecasted measure of the half year sales, even though it is clearly mentioned in the latest concall that the company has a very subdued first half the of year with much of the revenue recognition hitting the books in the second half of the year.)
One thing that I noticed is not touched upon much in this thread is the 6 meter x 3 meter 1.5 meter continuous 5-axis machine that the company has recently acquired. This machine is apparently one of a kind in the Indian SME universe. I would love to hear the specifics about this machine and understand what its achievements are and how rare it actually is in precision tooling. As per what I understand, the machine itself qualifies TechEra to undertake more complex projects in precision tooling and also move into the actual manufacturing of parts as well. This makes sense to me, as the company appears to be positioning itself to enter this vertical, given the longer nature of contracts and the stability it would bring to the revenue, and also, it is mentioned in the concall that the margins of the firm mostly improve based on the complexity of contracts rather than just an increase in sales or order wins. Further in the same concall, the management affirms that in the current Indian market landscape, there are at most 6-7 players that can do what they do. Is this again because of the management’s technical expertise + this rare machine? I really would like to understand from someone more knowledgeable what the actual benefit and advantage the 6 meter x 3 meter 1.5 meter continuous 5-axis machine really provides, as it is mentioned quite a bit across concalls and even in their annual report.
Anyways, I am quite excited to see the future of this company given the smart money behind it, quality of management, and industry tailwinds.
Wow thats an impressive post for a first timer … Welcome to VP forums…
Need to understand more about your background in investing and what interests you in the markets and your views on SME and why you choose to look at Techera.
Haha, thank you. For the last few years, I was mostly a swing trader, basing my analysis fully on technicals. I then had the opportunity last year to learn from an industry veteran, Mr. Sanjay Bakshi, who opened my eyes towards really understanding a business and its drivers, along with other fundamental values. As for my investment philosophy, I really believe a few concentrated bets are the way to go forward, and it is intuitive that SMEs have the most potential to grow (along with the most risk naturally). The reason I gravitated towards SME’s, especially early ones, is because there is only so much information available regarding them. This means it is actually feasible to potentially go through every single thing publicly released about the company, which puts me at par with any other investor. Also, due to the lack of institutional following, I suppose there does exist an amount of inefficiency in these markets (not all factors being priced in), leading there to be a potential to capture some serious alpha with the right analysis. The problem naturally, is that no matter how good your analysis is, you are still exposed to significant execution risk.
In regard to how I found Techera, I was honestly going through the December filings of some ace investors, such as Ashish Kacholia, and I was evaluating his bets with respect to some of his large previous wins, such as KMEW. I saw that Techera and Shree refrigerations specifically matched well with his usual investment thesis and were at a similar position (inflection point setup) to when he invested first in KMEW. Furthermore, TechEra specifically appealed to me because not only could I accurately estimate its average price, but it was also quite higher than the CMP at the time. His accumulation in the next filing only added to the argument for the stock. @Nabendu I saw earlier that in the May 2025 concall, you were able to participate in the TechEra concall. Earlier, somewhere in this thread, you had mentioned that you had connected with a senior official in the firm. I just wanted to inquire about how you went about doing this and if you’ve been in contact with them since.
From where did this curveball come from? The event is more relevant than the amount, that too at 31st March, 2026.
This is really poor working capital management by the company.
Default of 22.5 Lac Rs when their total debt is 24 cr. Their credit rating will be degraded and they will have a tougher time or they will be given a higher interest loan in the future.
If the promoter was ready to dilute the stake and they did sell their own shares (for whatever reasons), they should have been proactive in raising funds via preferential issue/warrants to avoid such a situation.
The share already fell 4% post announcement with more pressure to come unless clarified by the management which will be usually the concall only since they haven’t posted their financial results and might not agree to disclose the reason before results even though asked.
Disc: Invested
What do you all think? @meekinvestor @CA_Hitesh @kdjolly
Well that was a quick turnaround, still concerning on a working capital basis but given the current size of the firm, and the lumpiness of the business (something the management has acknowledged and therefore the pivot to manufacturing actual parts which will be more regular and recurring) one can understand potential reasons for missing this payment. Anyways interested to hear what is actually happening when the concall comes out
Good point. This counter needs some investigative digging around promoter’s unlisted businesses, whether they are cashing out here and investing in the unlisted entities, and whether new orders/ businesses are being diverted.
I don’t have an issue with the business not delivering this year, but I do have strong reservations on promoter’s integrity now. Kathni and Karni Mey bohot fark hai. This stock should head down to double digits in not too distant future, think the market is also sensing issue with promoter integrity. Technically, H&S can be seen on charts.
Disclosure : Invested and biased .
I have avoided posting much about this company as management is yet to prove itself and I have as well felt the management being too confident but judging a company merely on some loose statements does not serve any purpose in my honest opinion .
If you read the post it shows how Nimesh had to lose control of his own company founded over 22 years due to his reducing stake cash out and then went on to build another company focussed on MRO and Automation and survived Covid in the initial years. Maharashtra Defense support in the MSME shows early to support them was they are genuinely doing something .
They could have lived a happy life with the double digit cheque he received from selling his stake to Jendamark but he choose to go all in again in his next phase build a team of 200 plus employees and continue to work is more than enough to justify the man passion towards his profession.
And to answer his unlisted bets , the promoter does not have the financial strength in this capex intensive sector . Stake aquired by AK via his multiple entities is much more strategic in my opinion as this gives Nimesh the backing that someone is behind to write a Cheque and fund him while he focusses on the business ( Unlike a Jendamark who wanted to take controlling stake of the Company themselves and did a hostile takeover ) .
Coming to your question the Techera management , does not have money to increase their own stake how do you think they can fund unlisted entities by these small stake sales
Coming to the results , Techera is transitioning from a domestic heavy MRO business (Lumpy ) to Aerospace Parts manufacturing for Domestic Defense ( Structural & Order book based ) and definitely the results are not in line with the management stated guidance .This year was a miss and market is repricing it and agree the management has missed by not walking the talk in the current year . Investors need to be careful of being in the counter and take managements guidance cautiously however doing work for TASL / Mahindra / Kineco / HAL / NABL / Dassault / Delta / Turkey Aerospace / Jeh Aerospace shows credentials and quality and not just a dreamy wishful promoter .
And in the Tooling business , Techera is still a very reputed name in the Tooling Space known for its quality as per my channel checks.
I know you have been tracking this for quite sometime , so it would be extremely helpful to community that you can perform your own qualitative and investigative assessment of the company and let us know than just trying to speculate where the price heads to .
