TD Power Systems

US gas-fired turbine wait times stretch up to 7 years; costs jump sharply: A tailwind for TD Power?

The US gas turbine market is seeing a massive demand spike driven by data center growth (AI, cloud), manufacturing expansion and broader electrification. Some key takeaways from S&P Gloabl 500 report:

  • Wait times are stretching to 5–7 years for certain models, as global OEM order books hit record highs. Even the shorter lead times are now 1–2 years depending on the turbine frame.

  • Costs have risen sharply. Building a new GE H-class combined cycle facility is now ~2.5x more expensive than just a few years ago, with EPC, equipment, and materials all inflating.

  • OEM backlogs are at historic highs i.e Siemens, Mitsubishi, GE Vernova all reporting strong bookings. Siemens’ gas services just recorded its highest ever quarterly orders.

  • Data centers are a key demand driver. A single hyperscale campus can need 1 GW+ of capacity, which gas-fired turbines can efficiently deliver.

  • Mitsubishi and Siemens confirm demand will stay very high for at least the next 3–5 years.

Why this matters for TD Power Systems (TDPS):

TDPS manufactures and supplies generators for large turbines. With global OEMs like Siemens, GE, Mitsubishi facing swelling backlogs, they need reliable supply chain partners.

Long-term, the “gas + renewables” mix remains critical for stable grids, meaning steady, structural demand for turbine-generator sets.

Rising costs and bottlenecks for OEMs can actually strengthen TDPS’s positioning; if they can execute on deliveries efficiently, they become an even more valuable supplier.

This demand cycle is not a short-term spike but tied to secular themes like AI/data center power demand, grid stability and industrial growth.

In short: Global gas turbine demand is entering a multi-year upcycle. For TDPS, which is closely tied to this ecosystem, it represents a strong structural tailwind.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/052025-us-gas-fired-turbine-wait-times-as-much-as-seven-years-costs-up-sharply

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Amazing Export performance by TD Power so far in Q2FY26. The first two months have shown good performance YOY. July and August months’ export values are up more than 75% compared to last year. If this trend continues in September, the Q2FY26, should see a good YOY uptick in terms of topline. QoQ export values are mostly on the same level, if not slightly down compared to Q1FY26. US was the second largest importer for the first two months of Q2FY26 so far. It would be interesting to see the data for September, since that is when the double tariffs came into the picture. Domestic traction needs to be tracked as well, in order to properly estimate their topline for Q2FY26.

P.S. : The numbers shared are only for information purposes, and are in no way an indication to transact, DYOR before any transaction.

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Hey !!

Does anyone have update on the export data for TD Power Systems (for September 25)

Do we have any insights on the promoter’s consistent stake sale over the last two years, including recent quarters? Is there any background or past history that might explain these actions or raise governance concerns?

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As far, I know , there is family dispute going on, divorce case, not sure whether it’s related to this.

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The numbers were down YoY as well MoM for September 2025, but that is true for most of the Indian exporters. It could primarily be due to the US tariffs, because the product is still in huge demand as per various international business news articles. Q2 exports as whole are still a tad bit higher than Q1, so on quarterly basis the picture still looks good.

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How good is FY26 Q2 results
Bumper Results by TD Power

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With environmental regulations in Europe becoming increasingly stringent—particularly regarding CO₂ emissions; I have a few queries related to TD Power’s gas turbine technology and its adaptability to alternative fuels.

  1. Given the growing concerns around methane slip and CO₂ emissions from natural gas, are there gas turbines that can operate on alternative fuels such as Ammonia ( gas) or Hydrogen, possibly with minor modifications?
  2. Is TD Power currently undertaking any R&D initiatives focused on developing or adapting turbines to operate with alternative gases such as ammonia or hydrogen?

As I understand, while the basic working principle of these gases in a turbine remains similar, parameters such as fuel mixing ratio and gas compression would vary according to the specific characteristics of each fuel.

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There is no evidence of TD Power Systems (TDPS) actively undertaking dedicated R&D initiatives specifically focused on adapting their gas turbine generators or motors to operate on alternative gases such as ammonia or hydrogen. Their R&D emphasizes custom designs for efficiency, reliability, and integration with existing fuels, including purging systems for hydrogen sulfide in geothermal applications—but not fuel-side adaptations for H₂ or NH₃ combustion.

Having said that, companies will surely explore such options if demand increases in future.

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Does anyone have access to the export data of TD Power Systems from October & Nov 2025

TD Power Systems Limited (TDPS), derives approximately 70-76% of its order inflows from exports and deemed exports as per the recent detailed financial reporting covers Q2 FY26 (July-September 2025), with H1 FY26 (April-September 2025) summaries. October and November 2025 fall into Q3 FY26 (October-December 2025), for which results have not yet been released (expected in late January 2026).

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Yes I have will add excel sheet

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Outlook – TD Power Systems

The company steps into fiscal 2026 with conviction, backed by a healthy order book and a solid balance sheet. The road ahead presents a mix of complexity and promise, shaped by the momentum of the energy transition, expanding global infrastructure, and accelerating digital transformation. These long-term forces are shaping demand across our industry, and TD Power System is strategically positioned to respond. Through focused investments in scale, engineering capabilities, and closer engagement with customers, the company is translating sectoral shifts into meaningful growth, said TD Power Systems in its FY25 annual report.

Data centre-related demand, in particular, is surging and expected to contribute to a 100 GW spike in US power demand by 2030. The management said the company is gearing up to address this with the development of larger generators in the 40–45 MW range, with deliveries scheduled to begin in fiscal 2026. This will position us well for a massive potential scale-up from fiscal 2027 onwards.

The hydro segment has also remained stable and is expected to grow in next coming years. This is primarily supported by the export and domestic market. This reliability highlights hydro’s role as a steady contributor in a dynamic energy sector.

The market for TD Power Systems Generators in North America, Central America, and South America continues to expand greatly. The current outlook for critical markets such as Oil & Gas, onshore pipelines, fracking, and offshore drilling/production are improving under the new US Administration, which is limiting the barriers for new projects. Opportunities in the steam sector are active, particularly in Latin and South America for applications in sugar/ ethanol, pulp, biomass and waste heat markets, the company said.

Overall, the European market grew significantly in FY25 and the trend is expected to continue with a positive growth rate of around 20 per cent in the coming year. Meanwhile, the Turkish market continues to face a significant downturn in local manufacturing projects, primarily due to the ongoing economic slowdown and the Government’s incentive policy favouring locally manufactured power equipment, including generators. This trend remains unchanged, and the outlook remains bleak, the company said.

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TD Power is doubling generator capacity with the new Tumkur plant, unlocking revenue potential amid strong demand.

This expansion would resolve constraints and enable order execution & faster deliveries; it pairs with energy transition/data center tailwinds for sustained growth.

Tariffs don’t stop mission-critical infrastructure. TD Power’s execution edge secures AI tailwind orders. US/European OEMs, turbine-constrained, face 12-24 month backlogs.

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There were some audio and time constraints during today’s concall, and I couldn’t get clarity or an opportunity to ask this question, so posting here to understand better.

One of the company’s key customers, Alstom, has recently received a long-term maintenance contract from Indian Railways worth ₹670 crore. In addition, Alstom already has a Chennai Metro order of ₹1,400 crore and a Vande Bharat traction system order of ₹1,500 crore.

Management has earlier indicated that the railways segment run-rate is ₹8–10 crore per month, which could be mainly from WAG-12B (Alstom), Siemens D9 locomotives, and certain export orders.

My question is: how much incremental revenue can realistically accrue to the company from these recent contracts, and over what time frame?
Also, is the current run-rate already capturing part of this opportunity, or should we expect a gradual step-up over the coming years?

Would appreciate any insights

Disclaimer: Tracking only, not invested.

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I was surprised to observe that FII holding is showing as above 24% and this has gone up from 17% level from Dec, 2024. At the same time promoters holding has come down by almost same numbers. Can any one clarify this? Is it because of recategorisation or genuine FII buying?

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