Tatva Chintan - A catalyst for growth

Compilation of guidance given my management:

Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23) Outlook:

Revenue: The company expected to exceed ₹400 crore for the full year1.
Profitability (PAT & EBITDA Margin): Management expected subdued profitability for the full year FY23 compared to FY22.

Actual: 424 cr with margin 14% (vs 25%)

Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) Outlook:

Revenue: 20-30% for FY24.
Profitability (EBITDA Margin): EBITDA margin was expected to be 20-21%.

Actual: Minus 7% and Margin 17%

Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) Outlook:

Revenue: Initially, 35-40%. Later, there was a downward revision to 20-25% revenue growth for FY25.
Profitability (EBITDA Margin): 20-22%

Actual: Minus 2.74% and Margin 9%

Conclusion: Co seems to overestimate guidance and revise later and finally seems underachieve by great gap.
Not invested, just studying and thought to share my study
Courtesy: Notebook LM

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Here’s why Tatva Chintan Pharma shares surged 20% on Friday in a weak market - CNBC TV18

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SDA business - they are mkt leaders - they are coming up with capacity - they can do well for short term.
Phase transfer catalyst - we are moving away to EV
Contract manu - not moving at all
Elec salt - this will take off 2027 - Bromine flame retardant also has no growth.

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Tatva entering Stage 2 with Catalyst: developed in house for Salt Tech. A Niche play.

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Could you please give more details regarding “salt tech”

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They are not market leaders in SDA. There are 2 players globally, one is Tatva Chintan who has like 10-15% market share and remaining is held by US company called SACHEM. Its illogical to see them as market leaders in India when majority of the customers are global.

Currently they are selling their SDA in US and Europe, the demand in Europe is coming from Euro 7 norms which has stricter anti pollution guidelines compared to euro 6, in large and medium commercial vehicles and SDA is used in forming zeolite, which will help European Auto manufacturers comply with newer norms. Basically driving volume growth.

In the past, they used to sell in China as well however China has shifted to LNG based commercial vehicles due to cheaper discounted gas from Russia, if and when the prices of gas go up after discounting from russia ends, then only you’d see demand in diesel based vehicles which would also see company getting orders from China.

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I think “salt tech” here refers to their newer product line called “electrolyte salts”.

These salts are crucial in manufacturing of super capacitors in BESS (Battery Energy Storage System), although I am not a chemical engineer to comment on exact applications of this product, it is logical to conclude that this product will grow as capex and manufacturing in the BESS industry grows.

In H1 FY26, this product contributed just 1% of the revenue and management has goal to take this to 10-15% of revenue by end of FY27 and drive a more long term growth as SDA’s demand is more of a short term play.

In recent call, they have mentioned that their Electrolyte Salts are not exempt from reciprocal tariffs from US and which is why they are not able to compete with pricing of global peers who might be facing 20-25% tariffs.

Disc.
Not Invested

If it’s indeed stage 2, stock should see its previous high of ~₹2600 tested. Which means an upside of 90% from current levels. Interesting times ahead for this story going purely by what the price action is saying!

Disclosure : views are biased. Please do your own research. This is not investment advice.

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Ok. They call is ES. Thats a defined segment and they have been doing it for some time now. The co. expects this to become meaningful in medium term and hence carved it as a separate segment even though the current contribution from this segment is negligible. Mgmt also gave some commentary around it in the latest concall.

Another segment to look out for is their Semiconductor segment which is still in nascent stage but they have achieved significant progress, again refer to the call for more details.

Feel it will be interesting times ahead for the company.

Disc: Invested