SWELECT ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD - some information from Annual report

[nandan_ganatra]

Swelect Energy Systems Limited is a solar power systems company with presence in solar PV module manufacturing, EPC
services for solar power plants and solar power generation. The subsidiaries of SESL have been incorporated to develop and
operate certain solar power plants of the Group

Some useful information from its Annual report.

● New 500 MW production capacity of solar PV module manufacturing plant at Coimbatore…
( Earlier capacity was 110 MW )
Trial production for this 500 MW plant started in February 2023

● Topline was lackluster from 2015 ( 222 Cr.) to 2021 ( 253 Cr. )
However in 2022, there was a big jump of about 40% - 354 Cr.

• In my view new production plant of 500 MW could be a game changer in accelerating its topline growth…

● Net CFO ( Consolidated )
Fy 22 = 97 Cr.
fy23 = 131.46 Cr.

Current Mcap: 675 Cr.

● Company stopped it’s production of it’s plant in Bangluru ( 110 MW ) in 2022 - due to “unavailability of specific types of Solar cells”
The plant was operational since 2014.

Side effects & risk of change in technology

● Its subsidiary - Amex Alloy pvt. ltd.

Three division - Alloys, Iron Foundry Investmenr casting

“India’s first foundry group offering all the above under one roof & one stop shop solution”
80 Cr. Revenue in export from this subsidiary…

● Consolidated Financial instruments by catagory.

Debt - 549 Cr.
Investments - 280 Cr.
Deposits & cash balance - 250 Cr.

● Also on technical charts, stock price is consolidating since last 15 years, finding resistsnce at around 450 levels. Currently at the resistance level.

Disc: I have invested in this stock recently. About 2% of portfolio.My views are biased.
This is not an investment advise. Do your own research.

Note: There was another thread on this company on VPFORUM, however, I found that it was closed long ago and there was no option of reply on that thread, so I have created a new one.

[Crishna]

I see that Swelect is recognised as tier1 solar pv manufacturers by Boolmberg. Not sure if there are any other manufacturers from India. With India’s solar pv module exports increasing significantly in recent times, could it help in boosting the revenues even further?

[nandan_ganatra]

There are bigger players than Swelect Energy systems in this sector in india. Its not the only player in india.

The reason for my investment is

1. Sunrise sector, huge growth ahead.

2. Production capacity increased from 110 MW to 500 MW.

3. Top line was up about 40% in 2022. So some triggers are already visible, in my view. And with exports rising for the sector , it could be a trigger. However as per annual report, solar revenues were mostly from india (most of the exports reveune were from foundry devision, as per Annual report )

4. Good valuations and good balancesheet.

Disc: No recommendation. Do your study well.

[rupeshtatiya]

Swelect uploads the AGM recordings on the website. FY23 AGM Video link is below -

28th AGM Video Recording - 26.07.2023

They also do a good presentation in AGM about the business. AGM recordings of previous years are also present.

Some of the interesting points -

• The nameplate solar module capacity at new manufacturing location is 700 MW with 500 MW of production possible. The company expects capacity utilisation of 50% or roughly 250-300MW of sales. My understanding is per MW sales can result in revenue of 2.5-3cr. In AGM22, management had said that EBITDA margins of 5-10% are possible in modules. Chinese module prices have been falling - we need to track what kind of margins can module manufacturers make.
• There is 40% duty on solar modules and 25% duty on solar cells imported into India.
• The company is also looking to go one step backward and manufacture solar cells. More details on these plans and capex plan will be shared after current module manufacturing line is stabilized.
• The company also has 200 MW balance of systems (BoS) capacity.
• Currently new module plant is operating in 2 shifts. From August, they expect to operate 3 shifts. From Oct, they are looking to manufacture bifacial modules. Anyways, the presentation made at AGM gives detailed quarter wise plan.
• In AGM22, they have said that Amex Alloys is a sub scale casting/forging/foundry business and hence company makes losses or very less margins. At some revenue, operating leverage will play out and margins should inch towards industry average.

Following is a video recording available on YouTube made by ValueQuest - that explains Solar Industry, Developments in India and Positioning of Waaree Energies. I thought it was a good video.

VQ S.C.A.L.E. - Waaree Energies

[nandan_ganatra]

Good result from Swelect Energy

Topline Growth in solar segment is very much visible

56 Cr. Vs 34 Cr. YoY

As management have highlighted in AGM that they expect new module plant to operate in 3 shifts ( from 2 shifts in Q1) from August, So one should expect some uptick in revenue going forward as well.

Disc: Invested. Views are biased.

[Mukul_Jain]

Hi, Thanks for this thread!! I am interested in this company since it is starting it’s new Module PV plant which is much higher than the closed one.

Since you have done a bit of work on this company and also gone through the AGM Video, can you just on the back of the paper estimate the Capacity Utilization Levels from this new plant? And what could be the potential revenue coming out of this plant for FY24?

Also, with all segments the company has viz. Casting, EPC, IPP, and this new manufacturing, how much do you think the revenue will flow in for FY24 and a rough-margin range? I am asking this because if there is some good uptick in Profit then valuation might look cheaper and encourage us to put more time into evaluating further in detail.

Regards,
Mukul Jain

[nandan_ganatra]

Divestment of 100% stake in Amex Alloy Pvt. Ltd. for 110 Cr. ( In order to focus and strengthen its core business activity of the company - Solar segment )

FY23 Revenue : 121 Cr.
Operating profit: 26 Lakh

Disc: Invested. Added more recently as well. Hold about 4% of portfolio.

[Thomas_Philip]

Divestment will help them to focus more on core business. I think its a good move.

[Mukul_Jain]

Techno-Funda view on Swelect Energy

Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

PML Weekly - Bouncing off the 20 WMA. Hopefully the sideways movement is done. Fundamentals in the PML thread [PML] Swelect Energy, Monthly - Long term breakout in a C&H or Inverted H&S sort of formation and trading above those levels last 3 months. Also has a flag formation on the weekly [image] [Swelect Flag] New module plant of 500 MW has started production from Aug or so and should contributing to numbers in this FY, starting from this quarter. Fundamentally, this year 100 Cr ebitda…

[Nishant_Choudhary]

Swelect Energy Q2FY24 Result

Rev: ₹83Cr Vs ₹149Cr(YoY), ₹84Cr(QoQ)

Net Profit: ₹7.3Cr Vs ₹6Cr(YoY), ₹11.5Cr(QoQ)

PBT: ₹8Cr Vs ₹14.9Cr(YoY)

Does not look good imo

[nandan_ganatra]

“Har Ghar Solar” mission by goverment.

Goverment will launch “Pradhanmantri Suryodaya Yojana” with the target of installing rooftop solar on 1 Cr houses.

एक करोड़ घरों पर रूफटॉप सोलर लगाएगी केंद्र सरकार: ‘प्रधानमंत्री सूर्योदय...

[nandan_ganatra]

Swelct energy chart update

It has moved from 450 to 930 levels.

What I have learned over the years is that When stock moves out of multiyear consolidation zone ( with good fundamentals to backup ), Risk reward in such case does turn in favor of buyer & it generally doesnt stop at 10-20% higher, but rather it has bigger ambition on price performance.

Congratulations to all shareholders. Lets learn together

Disc: Invested. I am just sharing my learnings here. Do your research well before any investment. I am not SEBI registered advisor.

@nandan_ganatra

on technical charts, stock price is consolidating since last 15 years, finding resistsnce at around 450 levels. Currently at the resistance level.

[nandan_ganatra]

Good result by Swelect energy

500 MW plant is slowly but surely showing in the results

With Goverment’s Push on Rooftop solar scheme, I am expecting an uptick in the topline going forward.

Disc: Invested, biased views

[Cshar]

Hi @nandan_ganatra , Any idea about topline and margins from 500 MW plant, seeing Waaree energy getting 45K cr market cap in unlisted market with 12 K MW capacity, this has a long way to grow.

As per my estimation 1500 cr may be on a higher side of revenue, margin may be higher in retailing.

[nandan_ganatra]

Please refer to below details from @rupeshtatiya

@rupeshtatiya

Some of the interesting points -

• The nameplate solar module capacity at new manufacturing location is 700 MW with 500 MW of production possible. The company expects capacity utilisation of 50% or roughly 250-300MW of sales. My understanding is per MW sales can result in revenue of 2.5-3cr. In AGM22, management had said that EBITDA margins of 5-10% are possible in modules. Chinese module prices have been falling - we need to track what

I expect operating leverage to playout from its new plant with higher end of their margin guidance as & when topline moves higher ( 5-10% Ebitda ).

Also management has mentioned in recent AGM that if demand increases, they can increase their future capacity to 1 GW & higher as well.

All depends on how Demand moves up, goverment initiative looks very positive at the moment.

[nandan_ganatra]

Good article on Swelect Energy

● Gearing up for higher capacity ( upto 2 GW ) with an integrated cell line. ( topcon modules )

● Also I do think that “Har Ghar Solar” ( PM SURYA GHAR YOJANA ) scheme could benifit more to smaller players ( like swelect & others )

Bcoz they couldn’t compete with big boys on big goverment orders, PLI etc (for obvious reasons)

However they should get a boost from this theme as some of these small players already have regional reach to tire 2/3 cities/ village & with WIDER AUDIANCE/ DEMAND to cater, they will get their good share in it ( and hence better benifit from it )

● Having said that, it all depends on how goverment keeps up to their positive policy going forward. As of today sun is shining bright

[garg17793]

Hi Nandan,

A few days ago, I saw that they won an order for 100MW from SECI at 2.26 Cr per MW. Do you have any idea about the usual timelines for executing these orders? Are you keeping track of pending order books? I noticed that we are estimating the total revenue for next year. I think it could be more than 300MW if they continue winning new orders. However, understanding the execution timelines would be very helpful.

Edit:
https://solarquarter.com/2024/04/22/seci-auction-result-swelect-grew-energy-and-renew-win-400-mw-solar-pv-module-supply-contract-at-₹22-66-tariff/

[Sampath_Nayak]

“The delivery of these modules, along with the required spares, must be spread over a nine-month period and can be to any location in India as determined by SECI, adhering to the specifications of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and its Approved List of Models and Manufacturers.”

To be deliverable in 9 months

[nandan_ganatra]

There was a recent interview - where company has given number as 450 MW for FY 25 in module plants

Also for some of these orders, company will have their own EPC ( dont know how much part ) + their BOP revenue + Their IPP revenues.

So all in all FY25 looks good.

Also company has guided for new Cell manufacturing facility - followed by 2GW of module plant next year. So if things works out & goverment policies remain intact- then Swelect could well be very interesting story going forward.

Disc: Invested, added more in march corrections…

Link for interview

EQ In Exclusive Conversation With Mr.Manish - AVP - & Mr. S.Narayana - Director BE- Swelect

[pahaaadi]

This whole capacity (current or future plan) is a bit confusing.

As per AR 24, they have:

• Module capacity of 1 GW. Not sure when it increased.
• MMS (Mounting Structures) - 0.5 GW
• No mention of Cell capacity (future)