Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

Interesting times. Although there’s a reduction in Brazilian production, India is expected to produce 31 million tonnes in 21-22 sugar season and there’s already an opening stock(inventory) of ~9 million tonnes (sufficient for around 4 months of domestic consumption).The acreage is also increasing especially in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to consecutive good monsoons.

So despite the production shortage in Brazil, and recovery of sugar demand due to the revival of global economy, recovery of hospitality sector following removal of pandemic induced lockdowns; the upside seems limited to me.
In best case scenario, Indian exporters will get an even higher price without need for government export subsidy. But from the perspective of a cyclical turnaround, I think this is a wait and watch how things evolve next sugar season.

Regards,
Murali Podile

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Higher International prices brings Indian exports at parity that govt will not provide export subsidies, but will it lead to higher local price also? Local sale volume is 4+ x of exports, even marginal gain in sale price locally will lead to good profit.

Presentation To “Task Force On Sugarcane & Sugar Industry ISMA


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As of September 6, 2021, about another 2.29 lakh tons of sugar is at the ports, either loaded on to vessels or in godowns waiting for more vessels to arrive. This would mean that considering the 20 days left in the current season, total exports in the current season could cross 70 lakh tons.

Source: India sugar sector set to have bumper export season - The Hindu BusinessLine

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Good news following firming up of International sugar #11 futures

Centre doubles incentive on sugar sacrificed for producing ethanol from October 2021

With a view to encourage sugar mills to divert excess sugar cane/sugar to ethanol & to achieve targets of blending ethanol with petrol in line with Ethanol Blended with Petrol program, incentive on sugar sacrificed for producing ethanol from B-heavy molasses/sugarcane juice/sugar syrup/sugar has been doubled from October 2021, onwards in their monthly release quota.

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ISMA released 1st advance estimates for SS 2021-22.
Press_release-_28th_october_2021 (1).docx (17.1 KB)

sugar season 2021-22
sugar production(MT)
UP 11.3
MH 12.2
KA 4.9
other states 5.3
Diversion to ethanol(MT) -3.4
Net production(MT) 30.5
Opening stock in MT 8.3

After accounting for the reduction in sugar production due to diversion for ethanol, estimated sugar production is around 30.5MT.
Opening stock 8.3MT ( last year opening stock: 10.7MT)

Estimated domestic consumption 26.5MT and estimated exports at 6MT( without Govt subsidy for current SS).
Closing stock would be 7MT.

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sugar sector likely to have another year of decent earning due to domestic and global factors:

  1. Domestic prices around Rs.35-36 per kg
  2. Diversion of sugar to ethanol production and recent revision in ethanol prices by
    Govt of India.
  3. Exporting around 6MT of sugar with present international sugar prices (Daily Sugar Prices | International Sugar Organization)
  4. Brazil production for 2022/23 season( April- march) expected to be around
    34.17million tons vs 33.06 for last season 21-22.
    Sugar exports from Brazil expected to 25 millions tons compared to 23.9 million
    tons in 21-22.
  5. Another major exporter Thailand expected to produce around 9.4 million tons for
    21-22 compared to 6.9 million tons in season 20-21. Even though Thailand
    production is rebounding it is much less than around 15 million tons of production 2
    years back.
    (Figures are taken from various sources, may not be very accurate)
    Discl: presently not invested in sugar stocks. tracking.
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As Donald mentioned Sugars Mills generally starts making losses when wholesale sugar prices hit below 36Rs. It might be helpful to take another parameter into consideration for tracking the cycle given this time with extra cushion from ethanol production and government help. Also, since the cycle was shorter this time from 2017-2022/2023.

PE ratio - This might be another indicator to look for since the wholesale sugar prices are already around 37Rs they had dropped below 33Rs in 2020. Looks like the cycle has gone down when PE ratio has crossed 40(For Balrampur Chini, Dhampur Sugar Mills, EID Parry, Triveni Engineering) , which is probably going to be lower. Currently, the PE ratio for these are around 22. While for Bannari Amman Sugars Ltd it has already crossed 40 mark.

Also, Net profits have already started going down in 2021.

Any thoughts how much close are we to the down cycle?

Discl: Not invested in sugar stocks. Tracking.

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Dwarikesh Sugar Q4FY22 Results

In Q4 FY22, PBT isf Rs. 85.74 cr & PAT.59.61 cr registering 35% growth in its PBT and 24% growth in PAT as compared to the corresponding quarter last year.
In FY 22, the company reported PBT of Rs. 218.67 crore and PAT of Rs. 155.22 crore, clocking 83% growth in PBT and 70% growth in PAT as compared to FY 21.
Company’s net worth at 31st March, 2022 stood at Rs.673.29 crore vis-à-vis Rs. 578.91 crore as at 31st March, 2021.

image

Estimated domestic sugar production during the current season 2021-22
is around 35.0 million tons after considering 3.4 million tons
of sugar sacrifice in favor of ethanol. Execution of 175 KLPD distillery
project at DD unit is on schedule.
The plant is likely to be commissioned in June, 2022.

During Q4FY22 Company’s EBIDTA margin is 21.7% as compared to 14.0% during
corresponding quarter last year.
During FY22 Company’s EBIDTA margin is 14.9% as compared to 11.3% during FY 21.
Sugar sold during Q4FY22 is 10.11 lakhs quintals (all domestic) as compared to 15.23 lakh quintals sale of sugar (including export of 7.95 lakh quintals export) during
corresponding quarter last year.
Sugar sold during FY22 is 45.99 lakhs quintals (including export of 2.50 lakh quintals) as compared to 49.49 lakh quintals (including 15.99 lakh quintals of sugar exported during FY 21.
Sugar stock as on 31st March 2022 was 19.63 lakh quintals as compared to stock of 26.02 lakh quintal as on 31st March 2021.
Industrial Alcohol sold during Q4FY22 and FY22 is 16,526 KL and 55,728 KL respectively as compared to 12,833 KL and 31,732 KL industrial alcohol sold during corresponding periods last year.
On 31st March, 2022, the company had outstanding long term loans of Rs.252.40 crore including SEFASU 2018 loan of Rs.60.52 crore. Balance amount of Rs.191.88 crore is the loan availed for the distillery projects including Rs. 104.22 Crore loan for ongoing distillery project at DD unit (under disbursal). All the outstanding long-term loans are at concessional rate of interest.

DD Unit of the company closed its crushing operations of SS 2021-22 on 20th April, 2022, DP & DD units likely to close in mid- May.
The project execution work at DD distillery unit is on schedule and the distillery unit is likely to commence production in June, 2022. The setting up of the distillery will be significant
milestone in the journey of company as the setting up of the
distillery will result in more broad-based & remunerative revenue stream for the future

PS: Though there was decline in rev, PBT and PAT saved the day due to inventory adjustments. Sugar #11 futures are hovering between 18 cents to 19.5 cents . It appears market is not enthused with the result and closed flat. Unless sugar price goes up , market cap will be struck in a range as major part of Rev is derived from sugar business.

Disl: Invested from Lower levels.

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image
Huge windfall awaited

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Sugar production of Maharashtra, the top sugar producing state of the country, is set to decline by about 6-7% in the ongoing 2022-23 sugar season, which may dim chances of more sugar exports from India.

Source - Economic Times

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https://dfpd.gov.in/LwB3AHIAaQB0AGUAcgBlAGEAZABkAGEAdABhAC8AUABvAHIAdABhAGwALwBOAGUAdwBzAC8A528_1_Letter_to_Sugar_Mills.pdf

As per above notification from GOI, Any export of sugar would require Government license and approval. Does this mean that even if international prices increase, Indian mills would not be able to export to take advantage of the situation.

Earlier , when international prices were soaring, I know there were export duties and stock holding limits, but does this type of export limit was implemented ?

this may be precursor, duty will definitely come into play depending on international and comfortable level of domestic sugar price

In general Indian Domestic Sugar prices are de-linked to the global pricing… Because of export controls that come in/go away based on the demand-supply situation. Based on current International prices the Price translates to Rs 46/Kg while the current price is Rs.35-36/kg. It is likely that there is a sentiment effect of global prices on domestic prices but it will be far from a direct co-relation.

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EID Parry - trading at 5.5-6 p/e lower than sector & murugappa group, debt is minimal & mostly short term, have a big stake in coromandel more than market cap, lowest debt/ equity & cmp/sales compared to ppers. Attaching herewith peer comparison & concall notes from screener, & recent management interview with CNBC. Want to understand what am I missing & how is etanol story poised for EID parry if experts can share their view.

Concall Notes - Jun 2023

Financial Performance:

Q4 FY23 revenue was INR 807 crores, down from INR 921 crores in the previous year

EBITDA for Q4 FY23 was INR 327 crore, up from INR 309 crores in the previous year

Standalone profit after tax for Q4 FY23 was INR 83 crores, down from INR 225 crores in the previous year

Standalone revenue for the year ended March 31, 2023, was INR 2,895 crores, up from INR 2,489 crores in the previous year

EBITDA for the year ended March 31, 2023, was INR 527 crores, up from INR 492 crores in the previous year

Standalone profit after tax for the year ended March 31, 2023, was INR 197 crores, down from INR 284 crores in the previous year

Sugar Division:

Better sales realization and increased domestic sale volume

Cost pressure due to higher energy prices

Achieved a sales volume of around 5.19 lakh metric tons of sugar on a year-to-date basis, with an average selling price of INR 35.98 per kg

Closing stock of sugar as of March 2023 was at 2.45 lakh metric tons valued at around INR 33 per kg.

Ethanol Facility:

Completed the sale process of Pettavaithalai plant and commenced 120 KLPD ethanol facility in Sankili from sugar syrup

Nutraceuticals Division:

Registered a marginal increase in profitability despite a 13% reduction in revenue

Consolidated loss due to expenses on Flomentum and product loss from fire accident, but optimistic about insurance claim in subsequent quarter

Cogen and Distillery Operations:

Revenue from Cogen and distillery operations increased in Q4 and on a year-to-date basis

Distillery profitability affected by increased fuel prices and molasses transfer price

Distillery segment expects better margins in subsequent periods due to normalized fuel prices and efficiency improvements

Refinery Business:

Increase in sugar production but a loss in PBT

Lower sales volumes and forex losses contributed to the operating loss in the refinery segment

Refinery spread expected to improve with tightening demand supply in sugar market

INR 106 crore impairment charge for PSRIPL factored in forward possibilities of refinery investment

Refinery business has INR 200 crore long-term borrowings and INR 620 crore short-term borrowings

Expenses:

Employee benefit expenses and other expenses increased due to salary increases, headcount, and expansion

Finance costs reduced due to better working capital management

Outlook:

Energy prices are coming down, leading to lower finance and interest costs

White premiums are strengthening, leading to improved spread atmosphere

Refinery business outlook based on availability of spreads, cost of refining, and cost of money

The company expects to make up for the lower sales volume in the current year and doesn’t expect the forex losses to continue

Intent to run robust standalone EID Parry business and focus on strengthening it before considering dividend payout

Other Points:

The company exported more power in Q4 than the previous year, with a higher average tariff

No capital infusion is projected for other subsidiaries

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The industry is expecting lower sugarcane production in next sugar season (likely impact of El-Nino, higher Temp across India). The production will get impacted at MH & Southern region which are rain fed, whereas UP being irrigated is unlikley to see any dip in production. With lower sugarcane availability,higher production of sugar/ethanol will be a challenge. Moreover the reduced production is unlikely to be compensated by higher price due to govt control on price of ethanol.( Govt may change ethanol price and can make production of sugar attractive to keep sugar prices under control).

May be this is the reason for lower PE assigned to EID

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