kindly update on shree renuka sugars .Regards
Mawana looks highly undervalued…they may clock EPS in excess of 35 in Fy 17…Huge upside potential !!
Hello Mehnazfatima,
What is the technical upside level that you see for Dhampur sugars… I feel stock can touch 260 level and peak out by the end of this sugar rally.
Hi Mehnaz
Would be grateful if you could include upper ganges & oudh sugar charts also.
Is it possible to publish these this weekend.
Thanks in advance
good read for sugar investors:
@Donald: How different is it from other cyclicals like shrimp or textile, sugar is rallying for last 8-9 months, is it still a good point to enter? I ignored the initial surge during october thinking this may be a temporary bubble and more importantly I don’t have any understanding of sugar industry but the surge continued making me now take a look on this thread.
CACP report for sugarcane pricing (FRP) for sugar season 2016- 2017 CACP Sugarcane FRP report 2016 17. Analysis of this report reveals that sugar production for year 2016 - 17 due to drought conditions may varies between 20 - 22 million tonne. With expected consumption of about 26 million tn and stock of 7 million tn, india may need to import sugar after few months to control prices within reasonable level. Only joker in pack is SAP announced by UP govt particularly during election year. If past trend is any guide than it is likely between Rs 300 to 325 per quintal. Only question is how much incentives UP govt willing to provide to sugar mills to declare such a high SAP price for 2016 17 as CACP report clearly appear against this kind of practice.
Prakashji: frankly speaking, I don’t have much idea about the price movement of Upper ganges…maybe someone more experienced in technical analysis will be able to help you…it is too volatile for me to read the charts properly…sorry
Hello mehnaz
Shree renuka to break down or breakout…when it will settle in 20s…below 20 it is very weak…after crossing 20 only i belive it will gain some strength.your analysis pl.Regards
Wow !!
Frankly did not expect that i will get this . You made my day. Thanks a Ton.
Was feeling like in a dark alley with all this frenetic price swings!!
Re: Upper Ganges - I am absolutely OK with that . May be in a week;s time , things should be much clearer either way.
Hope you will include these 2 company charts whenever you publish other charts.
Again many thanks & God bless you.
Cheers
Ishandut: in the last bull run… domestic price of sugar doubled …from 19 rupees to 40-45rupees… in the present rally, the sugar price has risen by just 50%…i feel the rally has still a long way to go… maybe till june -july 2017 when sugar shortage and sugar prices will be at their peak…
Sandeepji: in the present financial year Dhampur may declare a profit if around 200 crores (sugar, cogen and ethanol combined)… at a p/e multiple of 15, it may have a market cap of around 3000 crores… that gives you a price target of around 500 rupees for Dhampur.
But by next year, you will be reading about the following argument…
India can produce a maximm of 280-300 million tons of sugarcane(after diversion to jaggery). while the Modi govt sets to implement 10% ethanol blending and as more ethanol is produced from B heavy molases, the maximum sugar produced by India will be around 27 million tons (one litre of additional ethanol reduces sugar production by 1.5 kgs)…in a year or two the domestic demand which is rising at rate of .5 million tons per annum willcatch up with maximum sugar production… thus india is set for a long period of high sugar prices over the next 5-10 years…
At the peak of sugar cycle …i. e around june -auvust 2017, these kind of arguments / projections will drive the sugar sector p/e ratios to absurdly high levels… sometimes i think a p/ e ratio of 15 would be too modest once the real investor frenzy hits sugar stocks… when people will be talking why this time its different… how sugar has come out of cyclicality…
Thats the time to sell… when monthly charts give bearish signal… may be in May 2017…or june or july or Aug2017…
Deepaksingh: the legendary speculator Jesse Livermore has said that when a stock behaves differently from rest of the pack, there is something wrong with it and that we should stay away from it.
For some reason Renuka and Bajaj Hind are not particiating in sugar rally… even TN based stocks which carry very little inventory, which are not allowed to supply ethanol for the blending program and which dont get very lucrative rates from cogen- even these TN based sugar stocks have become multibaggers… BUT NOT BAJAJ AND RENUKA.
As of now, i dont hold these two sugar stocks… dont you think its time to shift from Renuka / Bajaj to something like Dhampur.
thnaks mehnaj ji
thats the only point of worry shrree renuka is not performing at all…!!!already bought Ugar sugar…!!
and looking to switch from renuka sugars before it is too late…!!i am looking @ dhampur.
top 3 sugar stocks according to you which can be 4 to 5 baggers in 6 to 9 months??
1 i believe is UGAR…!!ugar can reach 3 digits very easily…!!
3 sugar stocks from your side pl.
Regards
The big three… Balrampur, Triveni and Dhampur…
Just look at the price to book value of Dhampur… and compare it with Oudh, upper ganges, ugar etc