I am firmly of the opinion that there are too many variables that make it almost impossible to make any fundamental prediction or analysis of the sugar sectorā¦all the big names in sugar trading keep revising their estimates and projections every 2-3 months. In such a scenario, the best thing that we individual investors can do is to take our cues from the collective wisdom of the market as a whole. For this we need appropriate Technical Analysis toolsā¦I find Andrews Pitchfork to be one such tool ideal for monitoring the progress of sugar rally as well as the sugar stocks price movement.
Without such tools, we will fall prey to our biases ā¦greed and fearā¦and be influence by the daily news flow emanating from diverse and contradictory sources.
I thought Balrampur had the highest. Can you check and confirm?
Moneycontrol inventory numbers:
Bajaj Hindustan - 2179.29
Balrampur Chini - 1669.25
LINK : http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/inventory/bse/sugar.html
So yeah, confirmed, second largest. But, have to double check on the AR of both companies.
As on end of March 2016ā¦
Bajaj hindusthan had a sugar inventory of 100 crore kgs
while Balrampur had a sugar inventory of 57 crore kgs
Triveni Engineering sugar inventory was 43 crore kgs
Dhampur sugar had 34 crore kgs and Oudh sugar had 27 crore kgs
Does the govt price rise check hamper sugar cycle? My first instinct was no because there is nowhere to import from either but the markets have reacted quite negatively. Or is it just profit booking?
I also think the same. Until Brazil starts to produce (and export) itās full quantity, the import scenario will remain bleak at best. Profit booking or/and an overreaction by the markets IMHO. We should use the vagaries of Mr. Market wisely. 
Disc: Invested lightly in sugar.
With this news āSugar turns bitter: govt imposes 20% exprt duty on raw sugar, refined or white sugar to keep domestic prices under checkā, any idea how much Sugar is being exported in total last year ? I saw a figure of 2 Million tonnes.
I feel demand -supply imbalance continue to be there given worldwide situation and in view of the impending UP Poll, govt will not risk allowing to reduce Sugar Import duty too much
Also International Sugar price hovering around 19.85 cent per pound after the India news. It will fire up. So I feel, this has provided a good entry point for patient investors.
which sugar stocks should one be concentrating on ?? the one i feel is balrampur chini , am i on the right track ?
are there others i should be looking at ?
thanks
In the current season
the government had given a target to the sugar industry to export 32
lakh tonne and out of that about 16 lakh tonne has left in the country.
The recent spurt in the global prices because of some problems in the
Brazilian sugar production and exports from Brazil had pushed the global
prices quite steeply in the last few months and that had made Indian
exports viable.
There was not a very big margin. I would believe the margin would be
anywhere around Rs 500 to Rs 1,000 per tonne. However, now with the 20
percent export duty on sugar, the export duty works out to almost about
Rs 7,000 at the current prices. So the export duty makes the export
unviable to the extent of Rs 6,000 per tonne.
Source: Govt imposes 20% duty; likely to make sugar exports unviable
I slightly agree. I think due to the excessive noise that sugar shortage was making, weāre seeing deep profit booking in sugar stocks. If you see monthly charts, the pattern has been similar and provides an entry point for traders. Although Iād also point out that sugar sector has eroded more wealth than it has created and you are certainly at risk of catching a falling knife. If sugar sulks now, youāll be trapped for 3-5 years until next cycle comes.
Guysā¦ why not monitor the sugar cycle through spot price of sugar in domestic marketā¦all else is just conjectures.
Bajaj Hind inspite of the largest sugar company in India is not performing in the market. They have the largest inventory as of 31 st Mar 16. So the company will reap huge profit from carry forward stock.
I want to know from all of you then why is the company not performing in the stock market. Is the Lalitpur Power project drag on the company.The company have reduced Long term borrowings and also working capital.
Please someone through light why is the company not performing.
It may be not of much use for investment prospective as it is a lagging indicator and not a leading indicator for stock prices. Sugar spot prices may remain at elevated level still once expectation about future lower prices set in sugar stocks start to decline.
reason being unbearable debt on BAJAJ HIND & also SHree renukaā¦so market ignoring themā¦!!but if sugar keep rising these 2 may also join the rally little later.Maybe they also start moving with Q1 results comingā¦and hope for blockbuster resultsā¦!!and after that we will enter Festive seasonā¦!!so hope for the best and keep holdingā¦!!Regards
P.S.i m invested in shree renuka & Ugar Sugar.
Hi Mehnaz,
Do you see any reason in the (apparent) fall of the stock. Is it for profit booking?
I have been following the sugar cycle for some time and I think that the rally may last for a while. I also noticed that earlier you had also said that we can expect the rally to last long, around 6-10 months.
While I do not understand the pitchfork model completely, thanks to your posts, I now have a basic idea of support and resistance prices. Hopefully what we are seeing is resistance price.
Thoughts?
