Subex Ltd. - Possible Turnaround?

Q 2FY20 results highlight:

#     Revenue reported at Rs 857 Million (Rs 880.6 Million in Q2FY19), down 3% YoY
    # EBITDA (ex-forex) reported at Rs 180 Million (Rs 123.6 Million in Q2FY19), up 46% YoY
    # EBITDA margin improved by 700 bps to 21% on YoY basis
    # PAT stood at Rs 63 Million, flat YoY
    # EPS at Rs 0.12 as against Rs 0.11 in Q2FY19

    [Investor Presentation](https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/0292fc91-dcba-4b92-8ed0-63a2bbe17df9.pdf)

Strange stock price behaviour. From Rs. 7 (Feb end) to Rs.3 (March end) and back to Rs.6 (May 21st)!

The price was hammered from ~Rs.7 (Feb 20th '20) to ~Rs.3 ( Mar 20th '20), ie in a months time. A closer look at the stock pattern indicates that Alturist Technologies (holding ~93 lac shares in Dec '19 and rumoured to be taking over Subex) has completely divested it’s holdings in Subex. Likewise, Edelweiss custodial (holders for the last 3 qrtrs or more) have also sold off more than 1crs shares that they were holding. Was this a result of the panic selling, triggered in the entire market post Corona? Interestingly a fair bit of these sales were absorbed by the individual holders (holding more than 2 lac), without the number of shareholders going up - implies consolidation.

1 Like

Look at the other investors

  • UNO Metals
  • Ganpati Dealcom
  • AKG Finvest

These entities have played a massive Pump and Dump operation in Lycos (Brightcom) and Intense shares. See the related thread in this forum. Same is happening in Subex now.

Disc : Not invested. Was never a part of my PF. Just tracking the story.

Interesting…didnt know that… While the pump and dump may hold true in the case of Lycos, not sure if the same applies to Subex as well, as Subex has only been collapsing from Rs.18 levels 5 years back, without seeing any major spike up. So when the stock’s not been pumped up, don’t see how it can be dumped. In the case of Subex, it seems to be more a case of panic selling. Anyways, since we are not sure of the reality, its all our speculations. :slight_smile:

1 Like

Check the price movement over the last 5 years… source: MoneyControl website

Hi Padi,

Just to be clear , i’m a novice investor and still learning, so please correct me if you see any error of judgement on my part. I am intersted in Subex since Mr Menon left and the new management took over and I find their “Horizon” concept pretty simple to understand and achievable with a honest and hardworking management at the helm.

Actually I am not sure at what prices these entities entered into the scrip, but looking at past instances like Lycos and Intense Tech, with most probability they have entered at the lowest price.

Please see the below 3 month price vs volume chart and it definitely shows a pattern. They have reduced a part of their holdings at the higher levels which shows up as a spike in volume


(source screener.in)

Now the case is that Subex is continiously hitting UC without any material change in their business


(Source MoneyControl)


(source screener.in)

This is the scrip today. Pls note the volume too!


(Source MoneyControl)

Compare this to others for example Tata Elxsi and the difference is evident (to me).


(Source MoneyControl)

Hence my personal conclusion that a big Dump operation is just a matter of time.

Disc : Not invested. Was never a part of my PF. Just tracking the story.

2 Likes

Any new updates on subex. Please share insights.

Lot of turnaround happening for subex. Looking forward if anyone has some understanding how it looks forward?

I am bullish on this company going forward. I personally think they can produce an EPS of 1.5-2 for FY21. Promoters walking the talk and it definitely is in the path for better returns.

1 Like

Looks like after so many years company is finally turning around … holding for last 3-4yrs now. It has grown to almost 40% of my PF after the current run in stock price :smiley:

1 Like

Trading Members of the Exchange are hereby informed that effective from Thursday, November 5, 2020, the equity shares of Subex Ltd shall be listed and admitted to dealings on the Exchange in the list of T Group of Securities. Further in terms of SEBI circular No. CIR/MRD/DP/02/2012 dated January 20, 2012; the scrip will be in Trade-for-Trade segment for 10 trading days.

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20201103-5

2 Likes

Any update on this company pls

Company declared a dividend of rs 0.50paise.

1 Like
2 Likes

Is there any specific reason that, promotors are not holding huge amount of shares in subex ?

I think the reason goes back to the history and circumstances that folded in the year 2008. The promoter then was forced to sell all his share and the company was completely restructured.
This is the to the best of my knowledge.
Corrections are welcome.

1 Like

Contour of the Subhash Menon,SUBEX saga…

3 Likes

5_6201717735001424633.pdf (207.4 KB) 5_6091616076569772672.pdf (231.4 KB)

2 Likes

4 Likes

https://autotechreview-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/autotechreview.com/conversations/interactions/subex-providing-cybersecurity-solutions-for-automotive-connectivity-demands/amp?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D&s=09#aoh=16123695565797&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fautotechreview.com%2Fconversations%2Finteractions%2Fsubex-providing-cybersecurity-solutions-for-automotive-connectivity-demands

I think purpose of this channel is not justified…m surprised y investors r not active for Subex ???

1 Like