Sterling & Wilson Solar Ltd. - Will the Sun Keep Shining?

what does that mean??

With reference to the above, please find enclosed herewith disclosure under Regulation 31(2) of SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulation, 2011, w.r.t release of pledge on 20,00,000 equity shares held by me, as a member of the Promoter Group of Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Limited along with the names of the Debenture Holders in whose favor shares were encumbered, in Annexure A.

Pledge for 20 lakh shares released. Now its available for sale hopefully through a bulk deal to a good investor.

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Behind paywall and needs premium access.

I don’t have premium subscription (is it worth though?). Any chance you could provide a brief summary or highlights?

It summarises the details of order book, rating upgrade and how it helps financing, risks, etc.

Key takeaway for me is :

“The stock currently trades at a market-capitalisation-to-sales ratio of 3x. If we assume the revenue touches Rs 8,000 crore by FY24-25, as guided by management, at a market-cap/sales ratio of 3x, the market-capitalisation could be around Rs24,000 crore, implying a significant upside”

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Valuation

The stock currently trades at a market-capitalisation-to-sales ratio of 3x. If we assume the revenue touches Rs8,000 crore by FY24-25, as guided by management, at a market-cap/sales ratio of 3x, the market-capitalisation could be around Rs24,000 crore, implying a significant upside.

Solar EPC stocks have been overstretched and investors have shown low tolerance for recent under-performance. The stock price of Sterling has declined by approximately 37% since May 2024, while its competitor, Waaree Renewable Technologies (WRLT), declined 45% since April 2024. Such high valuations are often accompanied by high growth expectations and the solar EPC sector, known for its cyclical nature, presents challenges that may have contributed to this market correction. The order inflow and execution processes in this space can be irregular, with long timelines and inherent lumps in project realisation which may have contributed to the volatility in stock prices.

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Sub: Press Release – SWREL secures a prestigious domestic order valued at approx. Rs. 1,200 crore

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One can read a detailed blog about the company. Found this on X platform-

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Did nothing to the price, god knows what is it which street expects

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SW Solar has tie up to deliver 2 Solar parks. Newsletter covers Nigerian solar landscape in depth.

I came across this as well so will have to wait for project to kick off on the ground and take it as bonus in their order book.

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I think market is skeptical about ongoing promoter tussle in the company (it is my personal opinion). Let’s wait for execution of guidance given by management.

Disclosure: I am holding a stock (1% allocation scaled down)

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Please advise source of this statement

SW needs a total orderbook of at least 20,000cr INR.

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Also, can anyone clarify this doubt?

is there any connection BW SW Solar and the reliance plan to build solar giga factory?

BCZ reliance is promotor in SW solar ? can we see any benefit of this giga factory

SW Solar has created a separate team for Reliance and we are expecting some updates about this quarter concall.

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At a high level glance, Q3 consolidated revenue was 1842 crores. Adding the 3 qtrs for this fin year, the topline stands at approx 3800 crores. Will they exceed the total of 3 qtrs in the last qtr to match up to the commitment of 8000 crores for this Fin year? That sounds extremely optimistic. Would want to hear from the commentary though on the Order books, plans for Q4, Nigeria etc.

Disc: Invested

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More than meeting revenue guidance targets, am concerned about interim CFO and CEO appointment. Why are they leaving ship when it’s to starting to look good?

Disc : Invested.

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Exited fully. FY25 guidance revised downwards to 6000-6500 crores. No further news on Reliance orders or Nigeria projects.

Way I see it doesn’t make sense to hold. Lot of retailers now trapped at higher levels - will require truly blockbuster results to break through resistances which I don’t think will happen given their lackluster execution

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Please refer pinned YouTube comment for summary

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I am one of the retailers, down 30%, 6% of portfolio. :face_holding_back_tears:
Management in the previous concall said that the project signing will happen very very soon. And I bought that. :slight_smile:

Question from October 15th concall:
Bhavik Shah:
The first question is on the Nigeria project. Like are we seeing any challenges there? Is there any chance of the Nigeria project not going through? Or like is it just delayed due to the bureaucracy?
Amit Jain:
No. Actually, we are – like Nigeria project is on track, and it is definitely coming. So there is
no question of cancellation of Nigerian order. Just to give a background, Sun Africa, our partner, on this model, they have already signed 2 projects in Angola and last week they have – this week, they’re going to sign one very big order in Serbia.
So there were some – like as you know, there are some particular domestic situation in Nigeria on the political front, which has got like – we were expecting it to sign it last month, but somehow it has got delayed but we are expecting it to get concluded very, very soon.
The negotiation has been completed with NDPHC, and their new Board also has approved the project. So, there is no uncertainty about the project. Project has big support from the U.S. government as a part of their various renewable energy and support Africa initiative. So there is no uncertainty about the project, and we are expecting to happen it very, very soon.

Now in today’s concall they said they are waiting for the order to come their way. Resignation of CEO is worrisome. I am in a pickle, not sure whether I should exit too or just hold hoping the Nigeria project would come to fruition. As you can tell from my post, I am a newbie in investing. :slight_smile:

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