Sterling & Wilson Solar Ltd. - Will the Sun Keep Shining?

Actually the promoter has gotten risk-free, interest-free money from S&W Solar when they are struggling to raise any money from the market. Having now scraped through approval of related party transactions worth 1200 cr / year for an indefinite period with the SP Group, it is safe to assume they will at a minimum recover any “interest” paid on the outstanding intercorporate loan via this route.

Disc. No position

Topline expansion and bottom line contraction. Higher direct project costs. Any explanation as to why this may be the case?

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Khurshed Yazdi Daruvala has sold another 5% or 80 Lac shares today in the open market. Any clue? Anyone?

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Sw solar after sale of 80 lakh shares today ,the promoters holding will come below 75% .
No more hang over of selling to meet 75% holding

What would be interesting to see is , who bought this Approximately 5 % equity

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Does anyone have an idea what the fare value or intrinsic value of the stock would be? The results are fluctuating quite a lot since listing making it difficult to predict.

http://www.ingovern.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/SWSOLAR-Final-Report-09-Jan-2020.pdf

This is a report from over a year back. Seems irrelevant now with more of the loans paid back

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After repayment of Rs 278 crore worth debt, its total outstanding term debt stood at Rs 94 crore, the filing said

Read more at: Sterling & Wilson Solar’s Stock Jumps 11% On Repaying Debt
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Sterling & Wilson Solar’s Stock Jumps 11% On Repaying Debt

Important update by the company affecting the business.

This is such an untimely and vague update, just as the debt overhang was clearing.
I guess all companies in any form of manufacturing / engineering will be faced with high input costs with the commodities rally. If companies can’t pass it on to customers, margins will be impacted.

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Following is the price movement for the last 12 days. The bad news came yesterday and the price reacted today which is ok. But the price was going down for last 3 days before the news. What do we make of this?

Date Price
05-May-21 310
06-May-21 308
07-May-21 307
10-May-21 305
11-May-21 297
12-May-21 283
14-May-21 270
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Yes, and this is not the first time something like this has hapened either. THis is conjecture, but it seems like someone on the inside leaked out the news. The free float is small anyway, so price collapsed on small volumes, and on large volumes today when the newss came out.

However, the bigger question for me is why will this be a one off margin contraction? its not that commodity prices are dropping anytime in the near future (or at least thats it looks like). Whats to not cause such disruptions again over the next few quarters?

That said, there is no point selling at present valuations anyway as with the debt out of the way, the company is significantly undervalued despite any margin compression.

This is what the company has announced yesterday.

Following the insolvency of one of the Company’s prime sub-contractor in a particular geography, the Company has had to appoint alternate sub-contractor(s) at a higher price due to border restrictions and other impacts arising from the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. This has also led to an increase in project timelines and consequential overheads which are material in this particular geography;
• The global Solar EPC industry has been impacted with several module manufacturers refusing to honour past price contracts given the sharp increase in cost of modules. Some of the Company’s module manufactures have also reneged on honouring their contractual commitments and have sought to substantially increase their module prices in two projects;
• Continued increase in commodity prices and freight costs remaining at their all time high.
The management believes that these recent one-off events would materially impact the costs of the affected projects under execution impacting margins for the year end March 31, 2021. The management is taking all steps to minimize the impact of the aforementioned events.

One wonders why these “recent one-off events” had to be announced now, when the Q4 results are round the corner. This kind of event could have been mentioned along with Q4 results. Or have they become too transparent? :wink:

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Haha well they are new to the capital markets, even though its a 100 year old group. I would have given them the benefit of doubt of overcompensating with the disclosure, but the fall in advance just seems fishy.

Also not if sure if you noticed but almost half of todays total traded volumes (32. million out of 7.3 million) exchanged hands in the last 10 minutes of the day and the LTP was 250. In fact over 2 million shares were traded in two minutes (15:21 and 15:22) and the minor price variation here seems to suggest that there was some big deal on the open market.

Not saying it is the case, but this seems like delebrate panic creation for someone to be able to buy the stock cheap. I guess I will be convinced that this is the case if the stock forms a bottom about here (240-250 range) and rebounds before the results.

Low float companies are naturally prone to price manipulation I guess. But the unnecessary panic creation is not on. Hope this is a case of a making a mountain out out of a molehill. Lets hope that the results have no more major setbacks, worse than what is already priced in.

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Here we go! BNP Paribas Arbitrage fund bought 1.2 million shares in those two minutes.

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Who has sold then ? This is also important

Absolutely. That’s what I was saying - the fact that there was such a large buyer and equally large seller at the same time on a day when the stock had already fallen 10%, and on a day when the company put that strange update out, makes me believe that this was a planned activity to manipulate the stock price and give BNP a buy at a price that they were comfortable with

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Hi @abhimanyu_gupta
SWSL is not an f&o counter though, so not sure if there was any arbitrage opportunity here. Again I’m not sure how an Arbitrage fund works - maybe they do take some positions in stocks independently too. They do own over 1% of SWSL prior to this transaction already

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