StageInvesting +Elliot Waves

Nifty IT Index

We called out about this fall at 39446 levels .

Now we’re are at 34757 -about 15% lower.

Are we near the short term bottom?

Well may be by tomorrow , we may make a short term bottom.

There’s a RSI divergence and 40 months moving avergare support is near by.

May be with today’s fall of Nasdaq , we might may see some panic selling tomorrow and a bottom of this leg of fall.

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During Black Swan event like this, do you still believe wave analysis holds?

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Waves are dynamic, count can change if movement changes.

My 2 cents

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Fog is clearing !

What Now ?

Recent actions of US have sown the seeds of distrust .

No industrialist or a company would do capacity - expansion or woudl plan for growth in this kind of scenario as there is a risk of a policy flip-flop as far as export is concerned.

Better to focus on domestic market players .

There may be initial spike in the stock - prices of US exposed businesses - but they might just go back to the old levels in very immediate term .

But don’t see them becoming multibagger as global situation has not changed much - it has just become normal ( pre-tariff announcement days )

In the medium to long term, we should go back to same scenario where we were in Jan/December .

Companies with higher valuations may jump a bit in short term but ultimately they would mean-revert as per their business growth .

What To Do ?

Don’t get trapped by short - term moves .

Do the same what we were doing before this noise around tariff.

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Adding few more to this list :slight_smile:

  1. AB Capital
  2. Ujjivan Small
  3. HUDCO
  4. Nucleus Software

Disclaimer :Biased on technical analysis basis. Invested . No buy/sell recommendations.

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Is Nucleus Software really based on relative strength? It’s barely managing chug along downtrending 20dma

Godreh Properties Super Cycle Analysis

Hi, I just found this forum on Elliot Wave exists in Value Pickr, I also checked that the original author of the forum is currently Tracking Godrej Properties.

I am personally an investor in Godrej Properties and have been tracking its EW counts. Above I have share my chart with the Supercycle counts of EW. Here are the important findings:

  1. Godrej Prop seems to be in the beginning of a new EW Cycle. It seems to have completed the Corrective Waves and is waiting for bearishness in the Nifty to lift to start the upward move.

  2. Stock price has retraced around 61.8% of the previous entire cycle. (1920 Rs = 61.8% Fibonacci Ratio). This is most likely the max fall rang where it is consolidating since a long time.

  3. The new rally of Godrej Properties will coincide with the last leg of Nifty50’s grand cycle ie the 5th wave, after it completes the current bear market correction. As such it is my presumption that Godrej Props will have a very steep 5 wave rally with Nifty’s 1 impulse wave. The history shows it always had a rapid rally and huge downfalls.

These conclusions make me think Godrej prop is a good stock to enter currently as per Eliiot wave analysis. Open to Community views.

Discl: Not buy/sell recommendations. Views are biased as an investor in this stock.

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I think one leg below 1900 is still pending 5th of 5th. After that need to see if impulse is forming or not.

Disc: These are my views only. Still learning. Do your own due diligence. No positions.

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Thanks for your views.

I see what you are suggesting. If its a corrective orthodox triangle, the E wave needs to come down its full length.

However sometimes in market, the orthodox triangles are not made and the 5th wave often cuts off in the middle.

My estimation was that this will be one such unorthodox triangle and will end midway as the broader market is also in the recovery cycle.

Thus, as long as Nifty continues its recovery from 4th wave, i aee Godrej Prop to follow. If it misses and goes back, Godrej prop will come down to finish the E wave.

This was my view on that part.

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My count in impulse, not in wave E.
Cheers
Note: This is my view only and can be wrong. Do you own due diligence.

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Thanks for sharing your markings. @Ashusharma

I see you have 5 wave bear cycle markings. I generally use ABCs or WXYXZs for the correction. But yeah as per that cycle marking, it indeed has a 5th wave pending. And chances of it being truncated one is what you seem to have projected.

I am sharing a close up view of my corrective wave marking.

Open for cross observations from the community.

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Adding two more to this list

  1. Heatlhcare Global
  2. Gravita India

Hope you got ypur answer by the recent price movement in the stock :folded_hands:

Sorry, but current movement doesn’t change that there was no relative strength.. ofcourse it was deep value buy
I have lot of respect for you and don’t want to start an argument in this forum..
I just wanted to learn the basis of your selection :folded_hands:t3:

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Agree with you that there was no visible relative strength. But there are several technical methods for bottom picking.

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Thx.. that’s precisely what i wanted to learn from you if u don’t mind sharing..

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BTW, it’s recent move is also news based mainly.. which maybe also visible in the invisible strength probably :wink:..

Adding one more 17.Shriram Finance

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Whats even the purpose of a list without backing it with any information, analysis or substance? Isnt this against the terms of valuepickr?

Request to give some charts and explanation saying why you like these?

Also ilf initial list playing out as you Envisaged