Sorry to say that our count is very different.
(Quartely chart also looks very different at our end …don;t know which chart has been used in the picture above)
From 2023 lows.
Weekly Chart
Disclaimer : Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. The projection is based on our technical -probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors.
Can you please share chart for HCL Tech
Sir, I’ve mentioned and posted Garware Tech Fibres and you’ve post Garware Hi tech chart
Oops …you’re right. Garware Tech fibres chart is not showing any strength , hence it is not in our focus as of now,whereas Garware Hi Tech is showing momentum.
Hi ,
Please can provide your feedback on CARYSIL and CMS Info. Does this stock have strength for short and mid term? Below are my observation
i) CMS Info : Stock doesn’t move much. Slow and Steady upwards. How to identify low beta stock? Please share which tool to use to see the high and low beta stock. What parameters decided the stock will be low or high beta in future?
ii) CARYSIL: Waiting for the Fed rate cut to happen for next big trigger. Stock is fluctuating between 780 to 1100.
Disclaimer : Views are biased as I have the stock from lower level.
Thanks in advance
Thanks,
Satish
Please look at Sudarshan Chemicals. Looks like stage 2!
@Ankurv Obviously its in stage 2, but it has been in stage 2 from April 2024, so if you are a pure momentum investor, you can take entry now also…but if you are a breakout based safe entry momentum investor, then the time for entry was in April 2024…Depends on your view.
Hi @StageInvesting can you please see the charts of SEPC Ltd and Jyoti Structures Ltd and give your opinion…
Thank you in advance…
Best Regards
Sir, Could you please provide your views on Hindustan zinc chart. Highly appreciate if you can share your recent additions to the Portfolio as well.
Market Situation
As per our assesment, we’re currently in a Bear -market rally . This bear market has started somewhere in Oct 24.
Current counter-trend bounce can last for few more weeks .
It is not a buy-on-dip market rather it is a sell-on-rise market.
Let’s look at the past .
Focus on the bottom and you would realize that whenever yellow -line crossed down the red-line , we got into long -lasting bear market.
(Time mentioned in the charts tells about the time-taken to form the bottom)
Small Cap Monthly Chart
Mid Cap Monthly Chart
And let’s keep in consideration that no movements are straight - you get counter-trend bounces in a bear market and you get corrections in a bull-market.
True on every Budget Day.
Great to hear from you after a long time. 
Big fan of your posts—they’ve been incredibly helpful. In fact, your insights kept me afloat when my boat was already sinking back in March 2022. I was on the verge of quitting, but your posts gave me the perspective to stay the course.
Fast forward to today, I’ve learned a few things and feel like a better participant. Thanks to your insights, I managed to navigate through and stay in the game. After the recent correction, I’m sitting on a 2X return (1X gain), fully invested. This will be my first real experience with a bear market.
Couldn’t agree more. I’ve also attempted to draw some channel trends based on my understanding. Small-caps and micro-caps have managed to stay above the 8-bar channel, whereas in previous instances, they broke down within the same time frame. Not sure if my interpretation is correct, though… 
A couple of questions for you:
1.With the recently released RBI manufacturing data, do you think February should be strong?
2.How do you approach a bear market?
What’s your current strategy? Any recent exits?
Looking forward to your thoughts !
Market structure is somewhat weak as a result of weakning economy. We might get some temporary rally but overall trend is down . And a correction of 4 years bull-market generally does not end so quickly , so we think that it is time to be patient and let the storm pass.
Well it depends upon individual -to-individual (no 2 persons are same) and his conviction on his chosen stocks + levels of % profit in specific stocks.
As far as we’re conscerned (we’re medium term investor i.e we enter a stock with 3-5 years prespective),but once we identify that overall trend has become bearish,we tend to exit wherever
a) profit % is small
b) where we’re in loss
c) where the stock-price breaks 40 week moving average.
We’re currently 80% in cash and only keeping the following :
Narayana
Wockhardt
Zentech (ready for further drawdown)
ITC Hotel ,Credit Access (. recent entries)
These are no buy/sell recommendations . We can exit anyday any of these or all of these without informing.
How is it a 4 year bull market ? What happened to the bear market in 2022 ? It’s there in your own chart as well .
Hello @StageInvesting ,
Could you share your rationale in brief for investing in Credit Access Grameen?
I have the same question why everyone says 4 year bull markets… 2022 was such a painful year as well
Well , there are few reasons for us to believe that it has been a bull run since April 2020 and we don’t consider that 2022 was a real bear market.
As per our understanding, 2022 was just a correction with-in a larger bull market ,the reasons are as follwoing 
a) It lasted for a short period as compared to previous bear market - only 3 quarters ( whereas bear markets of the past lasted very long)
Quarterly Chart -Small Cap
Top to bottom formation - Number quarters(bars) /Days (d)
b) Valuations had not gone too high in 2022 , the small cap index (as shown in above chart) moved from 9500 (2017 peak ) to 12000 ( 2022 peak ) -just 26% in 5 years .
Whereas index moved from 12000 (2022 peak) to 19000 (2024 peak) - a rise of 58% in 2 years .That has been too fast and too much rise in a short period.
Due to this fast movement , it seems that we’ve lot of built in froth in certain pockets of the market. And many a times ,it has been observed that taking away this much of froth takes some time.
Also we’d like add here that we’re still in a mega-bull run but current pause may last little longer.
We would also like to say that this is our understanding as of now and we’ve a right to be wrong as we don’t claim to be experts. We’re just sharing our opinion. Everyone needs to use their own discretion.
Thanks for replying . I am no chart expert but it seems to me the definitions are a bit random . You gave example of Smallcap index from 2017 but as far as I saw it, it rose from 4000 to 12000 between 2020 march and 2022 Feb and then corrected by 33% to around 8000 .So two years of bull market and 3X rise and then 9 months of bear market and 1/3rd drop, before another 2 years bull market and now we are probably in 4th or 5th month of bear market . By definition bear market is 20% correction and it’s better to stick to it .
Going by your method, if we recover in next 3 or 4 months, you will not consider this a bear market 2 years down the line and if it does not recover and drags for a year ,you would consider it a bear market .
While on paper looking backward it seems that it was 9 month long, It was a period of extreme pessimism till November 22 . In fact very few people thought bear market is over until it had been over for 6 months already.
I frankly have no idea when the markets will recover but I have an aversion to shifting goalposts to fit the narrative which seemed to be the case here .
However, I totally agree that it’s a time to be cautious and not be hasty .
Because inflation is expected to go high because of tariffs and markets are worried it will cause a response from policy makers where interest rates might be increased again like what they did in 2022
Gold, oil and stocks related to commodities might be a good buy.
