The Big Picture
Understand the global game.
1st Bonds prices peak , then Equity markets peak and in the last commodities market peak and start going down
Now commodities prices have started going down - along with that everything else will go down
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How do you see the consumer businesses performing at this stage? will they act as a good hedge? Page Industries, ITC, HUL, Colgate, etc. are they good bets to park liquid cash?
Nothing will be spared 
There is a famous saying : WHEN THEY RAID THE BAR , EVEN THE PIANIST GOES TO THE PRISON.
Everything has a froth- froth made over last 2 years bull run…that needs to go away to complete the cycle.
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What is your view on route mobile and dmart - which stage are they in?
Both in STAGE 4 since long-expect more downside.
Very easy to check . Study the picture.
Market Outlook
May 10th
There has been a carnage in US markets as well as in other emerging markets .
Nasdaq down 4% & Dow lost nearly 2% .
All commodities down significantly as well currencies are showing weakness . Bitcoin , the major signal of risk-on trades is also meting down .
US had 3rd 90% down-day with-in a month - historically speaking , it a clear sign of a long correction( price or time wise )
Overall let’s not expect a recovery today in Indian market .
Rather every day would feel like that yesterday was a better day to exit and save the capital.
A bounce back can happen within next two days as we might see some short covering .In Nifty, we’re in wave iii of C (ABC correction ) and it is extending - a small bounce might come in wave iv and then we will again go down in wave v.
There is no respite for any stock in these kind of markets - like they say - when they raid the bar , even the pianist goes to the jail
Major respite can come if US Fed decides to reverse its policies on interest rates .
Be safe , stay away if you don’t know how to short .
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Brain Switch
Sadly we don’t have a switch in our brains - from turning optimistic to pessimistic, from bullish to bearish !
Recency bias plays a significant role - in a bull -market all great stories of recent past play a role on our minds - our eyes get trained to see the breakout stocks & we tend to start believing that corrections last only for short periods and they are good opportunities to buy on the dip .
But keep in consideration- not all corrections are short-term corrections , some corrections happen to be deep and for very long term .
And also remember you make quicker money in bear markets if you are on short side - because pessimism is contagious ( like COVId ) - everyone gets it at the same time 
and market falls faster
.
But for crowd to become optimistic,it takes time , it is gradual , people want proof ( that’s why retailers (masses) buy at the peak of the markets when every proof of upside is already there ). So upward movement is rather slow as cpmpared to dowside -movements.
Market is more of a brain and liquidity game - earlier (in the cycle) you understand it , better you would be .
Don’t go buy media that talks about SIP in falling markets etc etc , that is for average people .
Go with the trend - switching g sides is the key - you are not on a ego trip in this market but you’re on a money - making trip - change your views when the underlying facts change - don’t be rigid , be like water - formless , shapeless ,egoless long-term opinionless - go with the wind my friend .
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Hello, i think KPIT can come to 432 as per the chart and current overall mkt situation as well. 432 is also a 50 week support, channel support, last big support as well and in downtrend it has to complete a-b-c wave so now we are in c … so finger cross till then…
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DayEnd -Tommorow Outlook
So we tried to bounce back but sold off at the end of the day .
Whether this much awaited bounce back was expected wave iv or it was a fractal inside the wave iii itself or may be wave IV bounce may come tomorrow after global sell-off ,there may be a bounce back in global indices and Nifty may follow.- we will come to know in coming days - and that would decide whether we stop at 15500 or go further down .
As mentioned yesterday , new age companies ( Nykaa , Zomato etc ) keep sliding down further & are going in expected direction.
Last standing stalwart ( Power / Energy ) also capitulated today leaving no hope for revival now for the markets .
2 important events to watch -
1st - we might see a good recovery in Nasdaq tonight and in coming days in B wave before that plunges deeper in wave C - that may help Indian IT to recover a bit before it goes down in the dark ages in wave C ( दिया बुझने से पहले की आख़िरी टिमटिमाहट)
2nd - Banking Sector might surrender badly in coming days
Coming few days :- there may be fight between IT and Banking to maintailn the index at a certain level -IT may try to take it up and banking may try to take it up
In short - be safe , we are in headed more dark days - only light in the tunnel is shorting 
Disclaimer: these are probabilities - may or may not work .
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If it cracks 480 —then it would go for toss.
But B wave bounce in Nasdaq may not take this at that level for next few days (as Indian IT would alos bounce alongwith NASDAQ) but after that C wave (after B) downfall may take this to breakdown levels.
So let’s wait ,watch and learn.
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Day Outlook
Nothing changes except that IT may not fall further as of now as Nasdaq is showing early signs of B wave bounce ( early days , no confirmation)
India
Possibility 1 - It should remain range bound , if it is in wave iv as these waves are time consuming.
Possibility 2- If we consider that yesterday wave iv ended with the little bounce back that we saw , then wave v of C might start , more fall can be expected- bank nifty should be the major contributor .
Metals/ Power sector may continue its fall putting pressure on the index - IT may try to counter - balance it . Let’s see how the day unfolds .
Sharing a chart depicting the mindset of a bottom fisher - chart belongs to a US stock - Robinhood
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IDFC First Bank
And innocent investors thought that free advertising of the bank through CEO’s charity is proof enough for the stock to go up.
Chart speaks for itself , no words required.
If someone does not know anything about charting, at least learn to draw trendlines and channels- you would be doing yourself a favor.
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Have been giving enough warnings of the fall for last 15-20 days.
Every other day you would feel that an exit on yesterday was better !
Hope is not a strategy!
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Achived first target on downside
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First target achived here too.
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The Bear/Bull Markets
Unsustainable things can last years or decades longer than people think - stocks are never traded at fair value - they go to extremes on either side .
becuase about once a decade people forget that bubbles form and burst about once a decade.
In a bear market,expectations move slower than reality on the ground, so a lot of frustration comes from clinging to the trends of past eras.
In bull markets, we tend to forget that we are extrapolating machines in a world where nothing too good or too bad lasts indefinitely.
Optimism and pessimism always overshoot because the only way to know the boundaries of either is to go a little bit past them.
In bull markets, your expectations grow faster than your money but still you’re never happy no matter how much you accumulate so you take more risks -you risk what you need in order to gain something you merely want. And you don’t want to listen to genuine voices because past performance increases confidence ( more than ability).
Bencmarks change in every decade, But for an individual, it is difficult to adjust his expectations to new benchmarks . Past performace leads you to form strong opinions and that gives you comfort.Because uncertainty amid danger feels awful, so it’s comforting to have strong opinions even if you have no idea what you’re talking about.
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Crypto -Index & Risk On/Off Trades
Crypto is seen as an indicator of risk -on trades ( equity,bitcoin etc )
Now it is on the verge of breaking down.
Total market cap of crypto currencies (excluding Bitcoin) reached at US$ 1.7 trillion when it completed 5 waves.
Now already corrected in Wave 2 upto 700 billion. Most conservative estmate tells that it can go to 100 billion.
Sign of the times to come - Risk -Off trade is on (bonds, FDs, gold etc )
Equity -Inflation Hedge?
We have learnt at several places that one should buy equities as an inflation hedge !
But why it is not working this time ?
It seems to be we’re in a risk- off trade globally as of now .
The key reason is US Fed.
FED is fighting inflation not only by using interest rates but alsoby bringing the equity prices down .
Equity market is also being felt responsible for inflation in USA
One example is housing bubble in USA. The employees of the US tech companies and start-ups have seen their ESOPs going multifold and they were buying houses at any price ,not only for living but addtional houses as well as an investment as prices kept going up due to butterfly effect.This has put pressure on demad-supply gap and housing is becoming unaffordable for middle and lower strata of the society.
Lower prices of equity might have direct impact in controlling inflation at least in housing bubble.
Fed Support
Fed is trying to fight the inflation by raising interest rates as well as it wants people to support its bonds -market in wake of tussles with Russia and Chiana . And it is working as we can see in rising bond prices.
Last time when US Fed did not support the equity ,happened in 1929 - when FED never intervened in the falling markets.
But after that for last 70-80 years , Fed always intervened to support the market so people started taking it guaranteed.
There is still hope that FED may support it as lot pensioners invest in equity in USA - but current focus is on inflation- control as US have certain interim elections .
Keep in mind that we are a tiny player ( a fly ) in a global markets - and when a tide comes - a fly has to nowhere to go but to just go with the winds. Controlling inflation is the key driver for US regulators and we all are feeling the heat.
There are several other factors behind why equities as hedge are not working :
a) Inflated markets due to last 2 years bull run
b) RBI is also increasing interest rate to fight currency depereciation ( as they no longer have enough reserves to intervene the currency markets)
c) Worries about presssure on companies margin due to increasing raw-material prices.
d) Fear about decreasing demand due to increasing inflation and lingering COVID impact on lower income classes
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