Sona Comstar BLW - Direct EV Play

Hello Community,

I’d like to share some key insights from the Annual Report 2024, Q1 FY25 Results, and the recent AGM:

Global Presence: The company operates with 10 manufacturing facilities, 4 R&D centers, 3 engineering capability centers, 1 tool & die shop, 8 warehouses, and over 4,600 employees across the USA, Europe (Germany, Mexico, Belgium, Serbia), China, and India.

Product Development: Out of 18 products, 6 are still under development.

Working Capital Lenders: HDFC, SBI, CITI, and Yes Bank are represented as working capital lenders.

IP Achievements: The company filed 11 patents and 10 design applications and was granted registration for 13 patents and 15 designs during the year.

Order Book: The total net order book stands at ₹23,300 crore after consuming ₹400 crore in Q1 FY25 and adding ₹1,100 crore in new orders. This represents 7.3x FY24 revenue.

Revenue Distribution: As of Q1 FY25, 33% of product revenues come from the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment, with 72% of sales directed to international markets. North America accounts for 43% of total sales.

Growth in BEV Revenue: While the company has a diversified revenue base across geographies, products, vehicle segments, and customers, the growing share of BEV revenue remains a dominant theme.

Decline in ICE Revenue: Revenue from internal combustion engine (ICE) products has shrunk to 9%.

Revenue Composition: 33% of revenue comes from BEV, 21% from hybrids, and 37% from power source-agnostic products.

New Business Wins: The company secured its first product order for its Sensors and Software business, which will be executed by NOVELIC. Additionally, more products were added to an existing Driveline order. This quarter, the company added one new customer and one new program in Asia.

EV Programs: Currently, there are 55 EV programs across 31 customers, with 27 in production, 12 fully ramped up, and 15 in various stages of ramp-up. Another 28 programs are slated to start production over the next few years.

New Commercialized Products: In Q1, the company launched two products: In-cabin Sensors (ACAM: a critical safety feature to detect the presence of a child in the vehicle) and Park Gear (enhancing the safety and reliability of commercial EVs).

Future Product Additions: Two new products were added to the technology roadmap: an Integrated HV Motor Controller, which improves thermal management and reduces energy losses, and an Integrated Hub Motor Controller, which combines the controller and motor to reduce weight and wiring complexity, enhancing system reliability for compact and lightweight EVs.

Upcoming Developments: The company plans to introduce low-voltage and high-power-density motor solutions between CY24 and CY25.

PLI Benefits: Four products have been approved for Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) benefits, with revenue recognition starting in the next financial year.

Board Composition: No significant concerns were identified regarding board composition or related party transactions. Meeting attendance is strong, and board member salaries align with industry standards and regulations. The company does not have any material subsidiaries.

Subsidiary Support: The company has provided a letter of undertaking to its subsidiary, Comstar Automotive Hong Kong Limited, to offer financial support as needed from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025.

Legal Matters: Labor cases are pending before the High Court and the Labor Commissioner. Legal advice indicates these cases are unsustainable, and no provisions have been made. No monetary claims are pending.

Contingent Liabilities: The total disputed amount is ₹99.48 million (31st March 2023: ₹85.88 million), with ₹8.63 million already provided for, and the remaining amount disclosed as a contingent liability.

Warranty Provision: At the consolidated level, the warranty provision increased to ₹45.12 million from ₹20.04 million in the previous year. I’m unclear if this increase is due to higher sales or changes in customer contracts, but the amount remains small compared to the company’s overall revenues.

Overall, this is a solid business with capable management. However, the company is facing softened growth in the European market. Rising commodity prices, high interest rates, and increased fuel costs may act as headwinds.

Disclaimer: I am invested with a tracking portion and may accumulate on dips, so biased.

9 Likes

Just small correction in the PLI, they have submitted 7 products PLI application and they have received 6 or 7 certifications out of 7 till now.
These benefits will boost the bottom-line in FY25, if they receive the amount from Govt. Incentives are ranging from 10-18% of the product sales.
This could bring down the valuations little bit and i am expecting going forward they will submit more applications and get approvals.

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Thank you, Murali, for pointing that out :grinning:. I missed the recent notifications regarding the PLI. With revenue recognition starting in the next financial year, I’m optimistic about seeing strong numbers in the company’s bottom line next year.

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I believe the next 3-4 years will be pivotal for the company.

In the next 3-4 years, growth should remain 20-25% or more:

  • They need production growth to avail of PLI benefits. The company hasn’t mentioned the exact quantum of PLI benefits but they have termed them as “Significant”. Further, these benefits are not yet reflected in the P&L. They will be reflected only in Q1 FY26.
  • EVs (In general auto space) should do well in the rate-cut environment; EMIs get cheaper, and people buy cars.
  • The fundamentals should further improve in this duration - Margins should expand as their EV revenue mix will expand compared to ICE revenue. Further, growth will create operating leverage benefits improving RoE and RoCE further.
  • The company will continue to generate free cash flow during this duration.
  • Last point from the price action view → Stock will surpass its Jan 21 high in some days/ months, this will eliminate the past overhang. Because, generally during rebounds, “trapped investors” sell when their price comes, which in turn makes stock price growth difficult.

Risk - PE multiple of 70-75; For such a FCF generating, predictable business, a PE of >50 is easily justified. But, I believe only a few companies can sustain such high PE over the long term.
Hence, if PE correction happens, this is a business to do a downward average in my personal opinion. Because this is a great business to hold forever at right valuations.

Stance - Invested and bullish

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Sona BLW in talks to acquire rail engg biz of Escorts Kubota, likely to launch Rs 2,000-cr QIP: CNBC-TV18 (moneycontrol.com)

*Company has received certification for another Product i.e. *
Hub Wheel Motor for electric two wheelers
Microsoft Word - Intimation - PLI_Corporate_04092024 (bseindia.com)

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