Q2 drop in revenue is a red herring as it is still unexplained. Moreover you have referred 2024 rates for modules but should have taken present rate for calculation. Moreover other solar companies like Premier and Vikram have not presented very good figures . So1660 cr in H2 for solex is a herculean task, though their European gameplan is a silverlining. So let us watch and wait for company confirmation.
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Q2 drop in revenue has been explained to be because extended monsoon in Gujarat hampered delivery; H1 in general and Q2 in particular is generally weak for solar/EPC companies because of delivery/execution issues (for eg. Alpex too). Management has said the ~ā¹100cr inventory accumulation is being delivered, in their Dec 2025 concall
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I used 2024 rates since they were management-validated, and because they are 1/2 as that of current market rates. If we use market rate of ā¹18000 per module, then the revenue expectation becomes ~ā¹2900cr. So, to be conservative, I used the confirmed ā¹8700 number.
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Premierās December numbers seem great, and Vikramās seem subdued due to depreciation and debt (idiosyncratic), and possible module price fall; thatās why I used the conservative ā¹8700/module figure.
Like you said, ā¹1600cr H2 is herculean. The short term bet hinges on whether the management will be able to squeeze at least 2-3 months of proper utilisation while maintaining efficiency standards, in the new facilities. Factors supporting this are the managementās expertise, ISC Konstanzās support and the ā¹276cr order.
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