Solex Energy - Undervalued Solar PV Manufacturer or Microcap Value Trap?

Stock Opportunities Untested - but worth a good look
43

https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SOLEX_08012025184350_Intimation_to_NSE.pdf

Solex Energy announces the Commercial Production from Jan 25 for their 800 MW production line.

The June 25 target of adding another production line of 2.5 GW is still committed by the management. Seems they are moving with pace.

Key monitorable would be whether they can achieve their target of 800cr consolidated revenue for FY 2025 now .

Revenue from Existing Solar Line : 500 CR
Revenue from New Line ( Assuming only Feb - March at 80% capacity [ (800 / 12 * 2 ) * 0.8 ] ) : 107 MW approx @ 1.5 cr per MW ( based on the order received for topcon ) = 160 Cr

Total Revenue from Solar Modules : Approx 650 cr
Total Revenue from EPC as guided : Approx 150 cr

They could still acheive the target of 800 cr but conservatively atleast 700 CR looks very much achievable now

8 Likes
44

Latest concall in Nov says they dont have any US exports.
What is the reason for solex price to fall by 20% in past 2 days ?

Is solex directly or indirectly affected by Trumpā€™s policy change ? How ?

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Solex might not have direct exposure to US market, but if other companies end up facing challenges for export it will create surplus supply in domestic market as their has been a lot of capacity addition happening in this space.
It really comes down to how management can deliver in such conditions to hold up to given revenue guidance and on governmentā€™s policy shift on renewables after Trumpā€™s victory.
I guess budget will give a better picture

5 Likes
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Solexā€™s margins may be impacted for at least short-medium term, given the oversupply if US demand shrinks. Meeting the revenue guidance should still be possible for this financial year, but next FY onwards, only management can clarify what they think will be the impact.
As for the stock, it seems to move only on triggers, next one could be when they announce technology partner for the cell line.

2 Likes
47

https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SOLEX_24012025182755_Intimation_to_SE.pdf

Solex going to move to the mainboard in the next 90 days . This would mean quarterly reporting will be applicable from Q4 onwards which should increase the information flow.

Also the appointment announcement of Independent Directors on Jan 11 ( https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SOLEX_11012025163048_Intimation_Change_in_Directors.pdf)

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jayesh-gajjar-17974a101/?originalSubdomain=in SVP at Reliance Group

Image N Shape | About Us Mr. Sanjay Bhagvandas Punjabi Group Chairman of The Southern Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry

Sanjay Srivastava - Government of Gujarat, Home Department | LinkedIn Ex-IPS officer Commisionner of Police , Ahmemadad

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48

Hiring spree at Solex

One sample post check similar posts on its linkedin page over the last few days

2 Likes
49

https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SOLEX_03022025164352_Press_Release.pdf

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So far management has delivered as planned.. FY 26 revenue will be 3X of FY 25, at least.

The question to be asked is how fast they can get into the cell development and the long term success depend solely on this factor.

They did mention somewhere that their new plants can give better margins comparing to the existing plants in the market. We need to know if we can expect 20-30% additional yield ?? If anyone planning to attend concall, pls ask this. This can be beneficial as we are into oversupply zone for Modules.

3 Likes
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Concall: https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/SOLEX_31052025192914_Submission_Transcript.pdf

Basic points:
Total 4GW capacity, including the new 2.5GW line expected to be operational from Oct-Nov 2025

FY26 revenue target is 2000cr+ while maintaining margins

Cell line will take 18 months to operationalize (expect sometime in FY27 only)

Mainboard migration not possible in June as well (stock in under ESM)

2 Likes
52

Pretty optimistic revenue target-3000cr

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Seems like solar module manufacturers have PB around 8-15 . Is it comfortable valuation to deal with? Donā€™t you think solar modules are pure commodity and with new tech development like Perovskite cell, existing tech will get devalued! so much premium on book value. Can anyone explain why is the case, even if one considers hypergrowth in revenue; which will ultimately stabilize sometime in future to lower numbers.
Also, there is almost 25% BCD(Basic Custom Duty) on solar cells and 40% on Solar modules. What if it gets reduced like FAME subsidy, does it not affect the entire industry? any thoughts will be helpful.

1 Like
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Agree on the normalisation in growth in coming years part. As far as the technology is concerned, solex management did comment on this in their concall, saying their lines are adaptable and that they are doing capex keeping these changes in mind. If pervoksite cells are significantly expensive than the current technology, than they may not be in high demand.

As far as BCD is concerned, I donā€™t think any parallels can be drawn with a subsidy scheme. These two are very different things.

3 Likes
55

agreed. But what if the BCD goes away eventually or it goes lower than current levies. what are then consequences?

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It appears that the management has walked the talk. June Qtr performance equals to 1st half year performance of last year. With more production coming in Sept/Dec, the company is expected for at least 1500 cr topline. With a very tiny equity capital, I am astonished about the company performance. How does it make it happen? And why they are not going for fund raising/ QIP, like all Tom/ Dick/ Harry are doing?

3 Likes
57

New order worth 183cr.

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SOLEX_06102025154655_Intimation_of_Listing_Approval_received_for_Migration.pdf

It will trade on NSE mainboard from tomorrow.

1 Like
59

A 16cr unknown company is now worth 1800cr+ in just a few years! What a journey

14 Likes
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SOLEX_09102025095042_Press_Release.pdf

Solex H1FY26 Revenue: 415 cr. (52% YoY growth)

Q1 was 260 cr, so Q2 comes at 155cr.

Rare sequential drop, even though YoY figures are good.

Capacity had reached 1.5GW few months ago only, with 2.5GW line commencing from this Diwali, taking total output to 4GW.

Managementā€™s full year guidance was 2k cr., which means they must do H2: 1600cr.

2 Likes
61

SOLEX_13102025124719_Disclosure.pdf

Another big order win, worth INR 500+ crores from a European group company

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Why is Solex 50% down since Nov 2025? Please let me know what I am missing:

Dr Chetan Shah is the MD CEO, who established and scaled up one of the largest module manufacturers (Goldi) prior to starting Solex and also scaled Solex up to 4GW module capacity. So he knows this business. He has said Line 3 and 4 have been operational since October 2025. Assuming only 3 proper months of utilisation of full 4GW capacity for FY26 to discount for inefficiencies in the beginning, it translates to production of 1215000 modules (135000 x 3 x 3 months, since 135000 is module production for 1.5GW capacity at ~85% utilisation).

Module rate for monoPERC in Nov 24 was ~ā‚¹8700 as confirmed by the management, while now since they produce 600Wp TOPCon+, as per market rates, per module rate is ~ā‚¹18000 (not confirmed by management). But still, assuming Nov24 rate (for margin of safety, since it is 1/2 that of market rate), revenue for these 3 months is ~ā‚¹1057cr; adding the ~ā‚¹100cr of inventories they claim to deliver in Q3, their H1 revenue (~ā‚¹400cr) and 3 months of proper utilisation of lines 1 and 2 (~ā‚¹221) we get ~ā‚¹1778cr. At lower PAT margins (~6%) to account for rising silver prices, company has forward P/E of 10, with a ~ā‚¹2750cr order book still left.

And this is a highly, highly conservative calculation, since I assume monoPERC module-level prices, and no price adjustment despite rise in silver prices to use ā‚¹8700.

The only 2 things we need to believe in for these results and continued growth is: 1. Initiation of operation of lines 3 and 4 from October 2025, and 2. Management is not lying about the orderbook.

Both seem plausible to me, given Dr Chetanā€™s pedigree and execution record till now, and the fact that their ā‚¹276cr order is for modules produced by lines 3 and 4. Also, now with EU-India FTA, and Solexā€™s presence in Germany (association with ISC Konstanz, all major European approvals - Dr Chetan in 2024 concall said the company is more ready for exporting to Europe than US), the stock looks promising.

Also, the company is now listed on mainboard, and its credit rating is robust. So, financing for capex should become easier.

1 Like