Solex Energy announces the Commercial Production from Jan 25 for their 800 MW production line.
The June 25 target of adding another production line of 2.5 GW is still committed by the management. Seems they are moving with pace.
Key monitorable would be whether they can achieve their target of 800cr consolidated revenue for FY 2025 now .
Revenue from Existing Solar Line : 500 CR
Revenue from New Line ( Assuming only Feb - March at 80% capacity [ (800 / 12 * 2 ) * 0.8 ] ) : 107 MW approx @ 1.5 cr per MW ( based on the order received for topcon ) = 160 Cr
Total Revenue from Solar Modules : Approx 650 cr
Total Revenue from EPC as guided : Approx 150 cr
They could still acheive the target of 800 cr but conservatively atleast 700 CR looks very much achievable now
Solex might not have direct exposure to US market, but if other companies end up facing challenges for export it will create surplus supply in domestic market as their has been a lot of capacity addition happening in this space.
It really comes down to how management can deliver in such conditions to hold up to given revenue guidance and on government’s policy shift on renewables after Trump’s victory.
I guess budget will give a better picture
Solex’s margins may be impacted for at least short-medium term, given the oversupply if US demand shrinks. Meeting the revenue guidance should still be possible for this financial year, but next FY onwards, only management can clarify what they think will be the impact.
As for the stock, it seems to move only on triggers, next one could be when they announce technology partner for the cell line.
Solex going to move to the mainboard in the next 90 days . This would mean quarterly reporting will be applicable from Q4 onwards which should increase the information flow.
So far management has delivered as planned.. FY 26 revenue will be 3X of FY 25, at least.
The question to be asked is how fast they can get into the cell development and the long term success depend solely on this factor.
They did mention somewhere that their new plants can give better margins comparing to the existing plants in the market. We need to know if we can expect 20-30% additional yield ?? If anyone planning to attend concall, pls ask this. This can be beneficial as we are into oversupply zone for Modules.
Seems like solar module manufacturers have PB around 8-15 . Is it comfortable valuation to deal with? Don’t you think solar modules are pure commodity and with new tech development like Perovskite cell, existing tech will get devalued! so much premium on book value. Can anyone explain why is the case, even if one considers hypergrowth in revenue; which will ultimately stabilize sometime in future to lower numbers.
Also, there is almost 25% BCD(Basic Custom Duty) on solar cells and 40% on Solar modules. What if it gets reduced like FAME subsidy, does it not affect the entire industry? any thoughts will be helpful.
Agree on the normalisation in growth in coming years part. As far as the technology is concerned, solex management did comment on this in their concall, saying their lines are adaptable and that they are doing capex keeping these changes in mind. If pervoksite cells are significantly expensive than the current technology, than they may not be in high demand.
As far as BCD is concerned, I don’t think any parallels can be drawn with a subsidy scheme. These two are very different things.
