SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers

infobeans tech
innovana thinkslab
ksolves india Ltd

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Company with strong moat.

InfoBean Technologies fits in the framework of under earnings.
Although recovery is taking more time then i thought.

Hi guys, anybody tracking King Infra Venture?

HEY @NeelaC @Investorscientist
have you got any new goat thing about ideaforge ?
Recently started tracking
in last fews day volume has increased
Looking woth to have in our porfolio
Do this stock have any separate stock where we can post our analysis?

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anyone tracking - Rox hi-tech? They are serving Leading Wind Power and Chip Technology (Micron Tech) like companies.

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Anyone tracking pennar industries and capacite infra? They have given multi year breakouts and reasonable valuation still intact

Hi Kamal, just started looking at this company post the recent quarterly results. Not sure why the stock reacted so negatively, results were not so bad, apart from some slight build up of inventory.
If you are still holding, kindly share your reading. Thanks!

@Mayank.mail
The Q3 resukts were not bad, the revenues stood at ~ 117cr up 2% YoY and down 1% QoQ
EBITDA margins for 9m FY24 at 22.1% vs 22.3% 9m FY23
PAT margins for 9m FY24 at 14.9% vs 14.6% 9m FY23
According to the object of IPO the company has paid 500cr debt obligation, the cash and bank is also healthy which has brought the debt to equity down to 0.09
RV sales are rising steadily, company is supplying to the largest player of RV in US namely Forest River which has 27% market share
The factors that negatively affected are
• Muted demand for LED lights affected sales and thus increased inventories
• The delay in the Block 1 is a major reason i feel that has had impact, the backward integration is absolutely critical as it will lower/end dependency on imports and lower the costs and boost exports snd earnings. The commencement is now expected by end of Q4FY24 for 2lakh sq feet Block 1 and for Block 2 is Q4FY25.
I too felt that the share price fall after this result was an over reaction, hopefully things should be better in next couple of quarters

Disc : Not SEBI registered
Not a buy or sell recommendation

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The ongoing beating since last 3 days, so far has beaten overvalued small caps, few names are already beaten by -30%.
how strong does smallcap space look now ?
I am sure it isnt at ~100. So, is it just an intermittent beating or they are driving them small caps out of party ? how hot does it look, still touchable ?
I tried touching few yesterday, it still hurts ! yet trying to touch some (couldnt hold my itch to do something all the time) :crazy_face: :grin:

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Long term chart shows that whenever the divergence between BSE Small cap index and nifty 50 doubles, bse small cap index corrected to the level of nifty 50. It will be interesting to watch what will happen this time.

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PE of the small-cap index is still comfortable at 31.5, even slightly lower than 32 (at 2023 end)

Let’s also look at the Yearly returns of the small-cap index:

Unless we are in a global boom cycle like 2003-2007, there is a high chance that this year might be a year of consolidation.

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lets hope this is the case.
since last 2 year i observed many such blimps in between…other than consolidation during January & Octorber 23…in all cases smallcaps didnt budge and the draw down at PF level was recovered most of the time within week…this time it has to go +15% (based on blimp/consolidation pattern which is only naive pattern i understand)
ongoing beating seems to have subsided and most of them r up and running ( people will flag this post but ill name few names anyway…in a hope that it may give some ideas to others for study)
NBCC,HUDCO,MSTC,KCPsugar,NEWGEN,OIL india - up and running, these r the names i knew took most beating.
IREDA,JPPOWER,NFL,BCCfuba,USHAmart - still seem to be at the recieving end of the stick.

EOD edit: IREDA too changed its course & is up.

As a general comment - where ‘you’ would mean ‘reader’

Perform a thought experiment :
What would you do at the black arrow? Imagine the current time was that time! Will you get out? Will you stay? If it is almost double then, at the black arrow, how confident are you based on the statement ‘bse small cap corrected to the level of nifty 50’ :slight_smile: . Cover the picture, to the right of the black arrow and try predicting confidently.

Chart reading and prediction is easier to accept in hindsight. Acting upon every signal is difficult, and if not acted upon, then the heuristic of action is weak. We can always say it will be interesting to watch what will happen in the future, but our actions of today are not commiserate of the events of the future.

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Indirect Real-Estate Play

Following are the small and micro-cap companies, which are indirect real estate companies with deep valuations:

  1. Elpro
  2. Elnet
  3. Alembic Ltd
  4. Raymond
  5. Nirlon
  6. NESCO
  7. Century Textiles
  8. Accel Ltd
  9. Texmaco Infra
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may be smallcap can go 3x returns of nifty50

Unlike the future, the present is knowable. What is not knowable is when the trend will turn. In stock market it is impossible to do right thing at right time. But The benefit of recognizing where we stand in the trend is that it enables us to take appropriate action. Rich returns make the investors less afraid of losing money than missing out of fat gains. In these conditions we should lower our expectations and proceed with caution. What does that entail in practical terms? I am not saying to exit but it might involve shifting from highly overvalued stock to less aggressive stock or making sure that we won’t need liquidity in the event of trend reversal. We can’t control the market but we can control our response.

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Above mentioned Companies, do any company has niche mote. ? Please explain.

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what is the CAGR or rolling return of small cap index against sensex for the same time duration?

Any stocks in the space of Busbar or Busduct manufacturing? I’ve heard from people in this Industry have a huge tailwing. Now high rise towers are using these over cables for electrical transmission and even in Datacenter there’s a huge demand in this space. C&I electric is a big player in this space but they’ve been acquired by Siemens. Any other such players?

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