Someone had asked a very pertinent question at 2023 AGM,
“Given that you have mentioned your Capex is mostly done for Sales till 1600 Cr (forward visibility 6-7 years), and your Product Mix remains mostly unchanged (Shunts/BImetals), SBCL looks to be on course to generate 600-800 Cr Free Cash Flows. Can you confirm that?” And if Yes, Will you be returning more to the shareholders?
CFO did affirm that, and Chairman Sandhuji qualified saying "Barring any big geo-political issues, YES we are on course to achieve that. I did note that down then. Today as I find the time to reflect back, was intrigued enough to bring out my (in-famous) old arsenal of Excel calculations!
Good to see my old excel sheets confirm projection possibilities.
Those intrigued on how-to-exercise of this kind, Please refer Michael Maboussin paper/tutorials on Expectations Investing (there’s the excellent book as well) - a gem of a Paper on how to forecast earnings with great accuracy!! (caveat: ONLY FEASIBLE if Product Mix doesn’t change (read working capital intensity and fixed capital intensity will be similar and can thus be projected with good accuracy), and provided you have a good understanding/grip on the business/competition/industry tailwinds to project Sales growth rate with some confidence)
Here’s my Old Excel (for those who want to play around)
Shivalik Bimetal.xlsm (137.9 KB)
(Use with care, and at your own risk; I don’t take any responsibility for errors in data/formulaic calculations; Excel geeks - feel free to cross-check/modify, and post back error-free version)
For folks new to VP and Screener.in, please note that you can upload this excel (or any excel using Screener base excel) at screener.in and you can download calculated excel like this (in seconds) on any business you like from Screener.in for FREE (yes, its free)! - probably the ONLY such utility you can find globally of such finesse; how cool is our very own @pratyushmittal !!