Very good set of numbers again. Shivalik has been showing consistent QoQ growth since 5 quarters in a row now.
Thanks to the co management for putting together maiden Investor Presentation (here), providing a good glimpse of demand and supply.
Key takeaways -
EV / BMS
At least 3 large BMS Automotive Projects are attaining maturity and coming into bulk production stage in Q1 22
3-4 more such projects are expected to reach this stage in next financial year
Capacity Expansion
Construction of Unit IV Factory Building has been completed. Erection of equipment’s is in progress and will be ready for trials runs by end of calendar year 2021
Construction of Factory Building completed on adjoining land and installation of equipment is in final stage. It is expected that the unit will be fully operational by end of calendar year 2021
@ankitgupta Do we have similar data available for break up between Shunt Resistors & Bimetals for FY2021 by any chance, perhaps with the source of this info?
Management during the AGM in September, 2021 had indicated that bimetals and shunt resistors/strips have split of 50:50 currently. So during FY21, shunt resistors/strips would have contributed around 100 - 102 crore.
The company posted its highest ever production, shipments, revenue and EBIDTA during the FY 2017-18. For the
FY2017-18, the company revenue increased by 29% from Rs. 12,556.99 lakhs to Rs. 16,167.97 lakhs. An increase in
realizations and sales volumes are the prime drivers of this performance. The company continues its focus on pruning
costs by improving yields, productivity and optimized the mix and sourcing of key inputs to withstand the volatile pricing
environment.
The company was able to achieve encouraging progress on key strategic initiatives like automation and logistics
optimization. This cost optimization initiatives helped the company report an EBITDA of Rs. 2,977.46 Lakhs for the year,
which grew by 41% y-o-y. The company registered a net profit after tax of Rs. 1,598.69 Lakhs which grew by 85% y-o-y… (ANNUAL REPORT)
Main reason increase in revenue and tax reduced from 38 to 27% due to new tax structure…
Thank you so much for the thorough insight!
The company’s ability to contain the cost seems remarkable…
It would be useful to see the EBITA for FY 21-22, given the rise in input costs this year.
One reason could be demand-supply scenario in 2017-18. We had passive components shortage similar to we have semiconductor shortage now. Some of the components were at 40 weeks lead time then.
Hi,
Since current is a safety critical parameter in EVs especially in the battery, we would need atleast 2 of them for a full electric. For a PHEV we would also require atleast 2 such sensors. For an hybrid system we would need 1 such sensor.
Other than the battery we have the DCDC which would require 2 sensor.The invertor will require 2 sensor and the motor will require 1 sensor.
All the components of the EV power train are modular and hence they have their own controller which runs the logic and computation. The controllers would require parameters such as currents as soon as possible to reach faster to adverse conditions and also be more responsive.
In my opinion in a basic EV like Tata Nexon there are atleast 10-15 shunt sensors.
From my experience of working in Embedded systems development for worldwide OEMS, the application of low ohmic shunt based current sensors are most prevalent compared to the Hall Effect Sensors. The reasons are
Cost of Hall effect sensor is high
Inaccuracy of the Hall effect sensor is high and the impact of electromagnetic interference can create further error in measurement. The inaccuracy rises with change of temperature
Life of the shunt based sensor is larger compared to the hall effect sensor as hysteresis and other factors impact the accuracy as the sensor ages.
Shunt sensor are more compact and easy to mount in an assembly.
In my opinion, it is unlikely that Hall effect sensors will have any disruptive impact on Shunt based sensors. However the concepts of sensor fusion might lead to reduction of current sensors in the overall vehicle. example, for a automotive vehicle, due to safety considerations we need to introduce 2 sensors to read the same parameters. This is called sensor plausibility. We try to ensure that the reading of the sensor is correct and thereby improve the safety of the system. Thus for temperature measurement of a 48V lithium ion battery pack we would keep 2 temperature sensor and check if there are significant deviation between their readings. Similar approach is also used for current sensors. However in many cases we can plausibilize the current by measuring the voltage change and temperature change and generating an equation which will to some degree of accuracy tell us about the current in the circuit.
The above mentioned plausibilisation approach can only reduce some current sensor and not completely eliminate it. I also checked around in my company regarding the number of sensors used in Battery Electric Vehicle, Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Plug in Hybrid Vehicle and conventional IC engine.
Conventional IC vehicles use a minimum 3-4 shunt based sensors. They have a 12 V power source and have an alternator to charge the battery.
For the x-EV, depending on the power train design the number of shunt sensors may increase of decrease. the current sensors are used in BMS (minimum 2), DCDC (minimum 4), Inverter (minimum 8), Brake Recuperation Machine (BRM) (minimum 2), charging circuit (minimum 2) , induction motor (minimum 6) on top of this there are additional monitoring circuits, protection circuits which can increase the number of shunt sensors in the vehicle.
As the industry is migrating from conventional IC based engine to battery based systems, the number of shunt sensors are definitely on the rise as electric power is routed in the entire system and it is split between various sub systems. The increase will also be evident in 2W and 3W segments as they migrate towards electric vehicles.
One of the key growth and focus are called out is Smart Meters, which courtsey covid didn’t take off at all in FY 21, however pace has set in- H1 22 has seen 4500 cr worth tenders coming out and H2 22 to see another 6000 cr worth of tenders work in progress.
Point is that while we have a great deal of discussions on BMS front and shunt resistor scaling well, Smart meters is an equally bigger opportunity which is aggressively pushed by govt as a key reform and FY23 will see real execution on ground. Good details on electricitybill2021 The one sector on the cusp of regulatory transformation
There are only 15 Lac smart meters in India, FY23 target is 10 Cr and opportunity size is 25 cr+. Delayed but gaining traction, massive Opportunity.
selective tenders already shared in thread which has shivalik as reference product
There are only few key players in smart meter space - Genus, Schneider, Secure meters. Current installed base of 15L smart meters have majority from Genus.
Tracking Genus and other players clearly gives an idea about tenders award and execution and on ground situations - FY23 per them will see large scale rollout, Genus Q2 concall is a good listen.
Tenders have been standardized being sponsored by Intellismart ( EESL - central govt entity https://intellismartinfra.in ), Shivalik is part of these standard specification and only local manufacturer among 3 quoted for shunts.
Goes without saying that Shivalik has delivered excellent results in FY21 and H2 22 - without good smart meter contributions, Smart meters optionality has solid potential to aid growth in FY 23 ( possibly H2 22 itself as supplier to Meter manufacturers). Exciting times ahead.
Thanks @GourabPaul and @Dev_S for some great posts to help us get a better grip on the unfolding story at Shivalik.
Sharing some scuttlebutt as received from an industry source (EV BMS). Some (new) names cropping up from one of the biggest global Tier1 automotive electronics supplier. They are considering following as 2nd source BMS shunt vendors, to Isabellenhuette.
WIELAND HQ Ulm, Germany
interestingly Wieland has a presence in Bangalore India. Those interested in local scuttlebutt can engage and see if we can get more info.
VISHAY is the other one which we all are aware of as Shivalik’s primary shunt/strips customer. There is an active lookout for 2nd source. There are IP issues with Asian vendors. Feedback is Isabellenhuette (though the major shunts supplier) is found wanting on response issues and pricing issues. Wieland Shunts at 1.2 euro/piece, Isabellanhutte shunts are 2.2 euro/piece. The time to approve a new vendor is almost 3.5 years with respect to shunts with this Tier1 supplier.
Interestingly, I asked a friend of mine about getting us the top customers for Shivalik. And here’s what he shared back (shunts, bimetal combined)
As per the export data Vishay revenue share is some 45%, next two are at 5% levels, another couple at 3-4% levels, and then a very big tail. Vishay remains the needle mover for now - till we see evidence of any of the new relationships (not commercialised, yet) scale up.
Interestingly the last 2 customers are Metering companies and scale-up is fast on a low base. over to @Dev_S /others tracking to explore more and make us better informed on the Metering opportunity. As per some estimates smart metering numbers are much bigger than BMS shunts?
Thanks for the insightful discussion. I have tracked the smart metering segment a little and I can say that the segment is seeing lot of traction as already mentioned above in multiple posts. The biggest impetus has come from MoP approving the revamped distribution scheme in July last year under which almost 50% allocation has been towards grants for discoms to move towards smart meter (MoP is proposing a hybrid annuity model wherein private players will come in and fund the capex to install and maintain the meters). There is a clear mandate from GOI/MOP to convert 10cr static meters to smart meters in next 2-3 years (seems a stretched target but gives directional comfort). https://www.nsgm.gov.in/en/sm-stats-all - this track the status and current ongoing projects but doesnt track the bids/tenders out in the market currently.
While I firmly believe that smart metering as a segment can be huge, specific to Shivalik I had couple of questions:
Cant’s these products/shunts be produced by the meter manufacturers themselves as well?
Is the shunt requirement something specific to only smart meters or is this applicable to dumb/electrostatic meters as well?
Smart pre-paid meters are now compulsory in all of Noida. Earlier societies would distribute power to all houses, but now the distribution company NPCL (RPSG group co) has issued notice of power shut off unless houses apply for a direct NPCL connection.
This has lowered tariff by almost 50% since societies would buy power in bulk at higher rate than that for an ordinary consumer.
Smart, pre-paid or otherwise, meters need to be able to be remotely switched off/regulated, part of the smartness, hence likely they have shunt(s). There is an app to monitor load and consumption and pay for recharges, though not really real-time and UI could be better
Disc: invested, a friends house got converted to use a smart pre-paid meter about a month ago
I searched hard and wide to find reasonable EV plays beyond Sona Comstar in India and found none. This seems like the best bet beyond Sona. Of course Sona is tier 1 supplier to OEMs while this is a tier 3 or 4 supplier but it still looks interesting primarily because valuations are not as exorbitant as Sona Comstar.
Extrapolating 2Q results for 3Q and 4Q conservatively FY22 PAT should be Rs54crs implying FY22 P/E of 33.1x v/s Sona Comstar at 125.7x FY22 P/E
Above are the Prices of copper and nickel during the same time Period.
A considerable rise in Price but no impact on the margin shows the Pricing Power that the company is exhibiting.
If i invert this, if Prices fall very sharply like they have risen we can Predict a bad quarter will come as they have high inventory due to RM being imported and they buy a good amount of stock so their spreads would be low. Would that be logical?
