Fell they have expertise into pumps and motors…here also they are going to make motors…so mostly they are playing to their strengths…
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and gov will come and say module/steel prices have down we will cancel and issue new contract…this movie has played before… in AP in 2019 a new gov cancelled old PPAs for solar power citing that panel price have gone down… this is nothing new… gov is fickle… a collapse in BJP gov will reset many of these contracts… if i am a diesel pump owner and market price of this pump is less than gov subsidiesed price that is fixed price why woudl i buy it via gov program? you can alredy see this check the DCR soalr module kits price vas non DCR kits… DCR kits with gov subsidy cost more than non DCR kits… many farmers that get these gov subsidised pumps then sell them off in open market for cash once installed thus creating ample second hand supply for diesel pump owners to buy at throw away price …
I dont have much to add here…
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A collapse in bjp govt will have far reaching impact. So will china invading taiwan or starting war with India.
It is upto each individual to assign probability to such events and take a call according to their risk appetite.
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i do not think that this is a time to be confident on the unknowns. speaking in a way that something is sure to happen is never workable.
lets see the analysis in depth with full nos detailing each n every cost item where running a diesel pump for 25 years is less costly than a solar pump.
also post the number of the farmers who have created and those who have bot these solar pumps.
if both of these are not available, then all the reservations are untrue.
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management is uncertain about
- Manson and its effect on execution of orders
- elections in Maharashtra and uncertainty in future orders with payment cycles(becoz MH is the biggest client)
- in concall Dinesh patidar had mentioned that there was delay in payment from Maharashtra govt, so slowing down.(he was clear about payment terms from early on)
so accounting all this he was under guiding for this FY @1700 cr topline. 30% yoy
So my take away is any change in government will have major impact!! and we are already seeing stock in sideways waiting for some updates regarding ajmeer project or major deal win!!
Disclosure: Invested at bottom levels and will hold. Its very subjective opinion and open to criticism !!
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Incoming Bonus!
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/1e720c01-f349-42ab-8de8-1bd4fdfafbdf.pdf)
As always not sure why the stock will close at UC on news of bonus. 
Many things in the world doesn’t makes sense. But still things happens 
The company is owned by 40% of retailers. I guess most retailers don’t know that there’s no economic benefit. 
As the total number of shares increases without any changes in the profit and loss statement or balance sheet, earnings per share, book value per share, and market price per share immediately decrease
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These corporate events, although don’t add any value to the existing shareholders out right. But if you see these events are actually beneficial for prospective shareholders. First, the counter would become more liquid by decrease in price per share because you would see more participation from retail, and hence manipulation would be a bit difficult. Secondly, these events give the company a short term visibility, the name would pop up on the screens of many retail as well as institutional investors, so the interest of people in the company does increase and it might even lead to some institutions buying from open market which is much needed at this stage to give Shakti the much needed momentum to come out of this long consolidation phase.
All these are just the benefits which might happen, so such corporate events are mostly always a good news for existing shareholders, unless there are some other motives behind a bonus or split, which the management knows but we don’t.
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Isn’t this the whole point of a Bonus issue? Most retail investors feel they are getting something for “free” and also when the price reduces most investors who shy away thinking a 4500 share is an expensive bet come back at 900 considering it cheaper. As the market works on what “Most” of the investors think…bonus always works wonders to bring back the lost charm of a stock.
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Issuing bonus shares definitely increases the liquidity of the stocks but it doesn’t protect stock from manipulation if it’s a small caps counter. I have seen small caps stocks hitting upper circuit after announcement of bonus issues and there is no other possible explanation of that other than the fact that someone wants to create excitement around the stock.
As far as I’m concerned issuing bonus shares is unnecessary use of company’s reserves in the service of feel good optics. A stock will do well whether it’s listed at 50 INR or 50000 INR, or if its free float is 10% of 50%, as long as the company is showing earning growth.
So you are right in stating that motives for bonus issues can be hard to interpret. But when a bonus issue comes right after 6-8x rally in a stock in a very short time, I think it’s time to be careful because this could be the last squeeze management is applying to get whatever juice is left out in the stock.
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Gov beginning to mess with the rules
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It is good initiative by the government and it is going to benefit Shakti Pump as technologically it is the strongest player in this segment. This will create entry barrier for existing and new entrants.
Disclosure: No holding.
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Does anybody here know what is the average revenue per sold pump?
HI Hemant, that is an interesting (level 2 if i may say) perspecitve that bonus share may be one another big hunter to the horse which is tiring.
I have another more interesting question to ask - what do you think is competitive positioning of such kind of companies? Are these companies have any long term growth potential, eg terminal values?
Hi Rajneesh,
I generally don’t like to predict about a company’s stock future as I will be betting on or against collective mood and wisdom of the market that can surprise even the brightest and most seasoned investors (and I am none of them).
But if I were to make a commentary on business model of Shakti Pump, I wont be very enthused and here is why. Again views are personal and won’t rule out any subjectivity in them.
Most of Shakti Pump’s contracts (if I am not wrong) are with government customers and that itself is dealbreaker for me. Although cyclicality and cash flow lumpiness with any government business is a given, what I don’t like is their unpredictability. A business like that should get very low valuations (and not what Shakti Pump is getting today).
Any company (let alone smaller players like Shakti Pump with no bargaining power) doing business with government will always have issues of collections, delays in execution, or policy changes. And if entry barriers or differentiator are not present, they will always have to be the lowest cost bidder to win these tenders which caps their margin. So it’s a double whammy where you have unpredictability in margins and cash flows.
If I were really forced to invest in these companies I will get in when story looks bleak for them (e.g. low margins and valuations) and get out when hype is fully built up (margins and valuations peaking out).
I would worry about terminal values for long term investments and not for short term trading calls. To me a small scale pureplay solar pump business with heavy reliance on government contracts can’t be a long term bet.
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Thanks for your answer. Since I’m new to investing directly, the confidence is usually low and then since all quality companies are at very high valuations we get quite tempted by PEs of 30s or so and then when the stock runs high we do get a sense of validation that we have cracked the value formula which people are ever learning and yet not there.
Btw - isn’t it true that as long as the quarterly results are yoy or qoq company Is showing ever increasing growth the stock could be relied upon, in this case Shakti Pump? Or?
also depend upon govt run policies like anti dumping duty etc,
Looking at the huge demand driven by the Government yojanas, I wonder why only Shakti pumps has run up soo much and not KSB or Kirloskar bros.
I know there are some issues still overhanging in the case of KIRLOSBROS but I don’t see any real difference in execution of the management in either three, unless I am missing something?
Can someone please enlighten?