Santosh Sinha Portfolio

Hi All,

I need some really valuable comments guidance from you all and esp seniors of vp, Hitesh/donald/Rudra/Raj and many others.

I have a simple portfolio of 5 stocks, hdfc bank, page, gruh, inusind and Repco, all close to 29 % each, I am 36, salaried, i m 80 % equity, 20 % debt. The only debt portfolio I have is also v simple PF + VPF ( 20% extra), which is also a monthly compounding machine @9 % tax free. Since it is dedcuted from sal, it is also forced savings, most secure and long term as well. VPF is less liquid, so it works for me as well from savings perspective.

Rest is all equity, no mf etc. My direct equity is a combination of all high quality large cap, mid cap and small cap names. All are long term compunding bets.

I was new to vp, since few months back I am researching all vp scorecard business like mayur, astral, kaveri, ajanta, shilpa, pi, poly med,kitex, atul auto etc. I am really impressed by these pics, Planning to buy these quaity smLL CAPS on increamental capital esp I like mayur, astral, ajanta to beging with. These busineeses are really good long term bets. The problem is they have all run up v fast recently, valuations also look ahead of fundamentals, but prof bakshi blog reminds of buying quality even at higher PEs, so I am ok with these names even now.

Will wait for June/july update by Donald on vp scorecard and some great discussion after that, I also wish to contribute in my small way.

Till then looking for some quality discussion on my portfolio, all comments are welcome !



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Any comment/criticism/suggestion is welcome by all.

Hi Santosh,

The stock picks u put up are good companies. Only problem is that it seems financials heavy.

4 of the 5 stocks are financials.

I would add Shilpa in place of Indusind since the latter is a replica of HDFC bank and doesnt offer anything new.

You can go through the thread on Shilpa, indianivesh research reports etc and decide. Ajanta is a good company too but has run up a lot recently so u can wait for it to cool off or consolidate and then contemplate buying. Same applies to Mayur, Astral etc.



Just thought to update my recent portfolio which has gone some changes in last 6 months. I am thankful to Hitesh bhai for his comments above and all VP friends for so much of value addition in my investing journey in other threads.

I have a v simple portfolio like earlier, now I am tring to practice, fewer bets, bigger bets and infrequent bets, The idea is to develop v high conviction before taking bigger bets. This is helping me. Recent exits are Avanti, Hatsun Agro, Kesar, Gruh, Indusind, yes bank, page, hdfc bank, Alembic pharma

Ajanta Pharma 15 %

Can fin Homes 19 %

Capital first 18 %

Kitex Garments 14 %

Shilpa medicare 11 %

Repco Home 11 %

Kaveri seeds 11 %

Once again Big thanks to Hitesh Bhai for allhis help.

Now PF is open for scrutiny/value addition by others as well !

PF seems good and you can now stick to it like the proverbial limpet. :slight_smile:

Kitex seems to be on steroids. :slight_smile:

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Thanks Sirji for your valuable guidance time & again !


Any reason on exit of Hatsun Agro which i was trying to learn more and making investments?


@ Muthukumar, Although I like the business and space, the valuation lookedstreched, preferred stock placement of 30 crwas also velow market price, to me it is a 20-25 % compunder for sure, but no undervaluation, or PE rerating expected, eturns will be proportionate to earnings growth, fy 15 is not expected to be that good as per management guidance, q1 was alsopoor.Also didn’t had that high conviction to put bigget bets, so shifted to high conviction, bigger bets !

@ Hitesh bhai, Sticking like proverbial limpet is easier said than done for many of me/us, any thought/idea on how to develop this valuable value investing skill over a period of time, which we need to work upon to master it ? Me reading alot on this to improve this aspect, Thanks

I read somewehre that if you can’t hold to your conviction ideas for 5-6 years to be multibagger, you shouldn’t look for next multibagger, as it is never ending process. Most of us are always looking for the next big idea, but not willing to hold the existing high conviction bets of the past !


I am very thankful to VP community for turning around my investment approach, all the learnings from @Donald, @hitesh2710 @ayushmit and many others and results henceforth. As we know if the process is right results will follow automatically.

Just wanted to share my PF update for your valuable comments/guidance if any.
I joined VP in Jan 14 and since then PF has risen 4 fold.
What is even more heartening is that I am slowly learning the art of patience, but right sit tight, buy and hold, fewer bets bigger bets and adding on to winners on corrections, rather than looking for new ideas.

The biggest improvement has been bigger bets on high conviction ideas and capital allocation to high conviction and most undervalued bets… During last one year I have reduced by PF from 12 to only 5 stocks, with allocation from 10 % to 25 % and it has helped me a lot in many ways, it makes life simple. I dont invest in any idea now if I cant invest min 10 %, it takes lots of time, energy and could derail your long term goals.

Can Fin Homes 25 %
Kitex Garments 20 %
Ajanta Pharma 20 %
Capital First 20 %
Repco Home 10 %
Shilpa Medicare 3 %

I am increasing allocation/researching in Granueles and KDDL gradually. With time I am increasing exposure to Shilpa after booking profit at 1000 levels few months back as the super growth phase for shilpa is coming nearer month by month and not have high opportunity cost in FY 16.

I am thankful to all esp @hitesh2710 for his comments for stocking to my PF as proverbial limpet.
Now I am a big fan of fewer bets and bigger bets. The trick is if one get his bets rights, it can do wonders to ones portfolio. To get bets rights needs lots of research and build own strong conviction ( not borrowed).

This working for me, with Nifty 2 % return in Fy 15, PF is up 46 % YTD.

Thanks to all again and looking forward to your valuable suggestions/inputs/comments for further learning.

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Whats been the performance of your PF ever since further reduction to 5 scrips.

What about loss of omission and opp loss?

Looking for any small scrips which cud be a multibagger which gives boost to your pf in addition to your existing compounder stocks?

Your take on textiles stocks in view of Low PE,Good ROCE and good opp size?

what else r u liking at cmp only from tracking POV?

Hi @Vivek_6954

  • Since 5 scrips PF is up 46 % YTD in 5 months.
  • Omission and opp loss is very difficult to answer, as these things look good in hindsight only. I am always open to add new stocks, but only if conviction is so high that it can take 10 % of my PF
  • Adding 2 % of multi bagger small caps to boost pf return actually doesn’t boost the pf always, I have tried these but didnt work for me. In fact if I am sure that it will be multi bagger, one can add 10 % else it may not even do well and lead to opportunity loss.
  • Textile stocks seems to be in sweet spot esp micro caps I like Nitin and Premco, without any positions, still tracking but had run up a lot in recent times. But one cant deploy large sums to these.
  • From tracking POV and I also like Poddar, KDDL, Anuh, Nitin, Premco, Aarti drugs, Ashiana, Granueles… etc

Thanks for your probing questions.
Cheers !

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Hi Santosh,

You are doing fabulously well, Congrats. Great to see Capital First finding space in your concentrated PF.

Could you post your thoughts on the capital first thread on the concerns that are being raised on the LAP’s in general.


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Great to see your portfolio performing wonderfully.

And even more happier to see you emerge as a much more savvier investor.

All the best and rgds


Thanks Hitesh bhai @hitesh2710 for your kind words and continuous encouragement.
These are still early days ( despite being my 14th yr in market), long way to go, many things still to learn and practice from this forum.

In this recent correction in market, made some minor changes to my PF, just thought to update for more learning and comments

Bought Torrent pharma after bumper Q1 and expected bumper Q2, stock corrected to below Q1 level price due to this correction and valuations are very compelling for FY16 estimate, its only 15 forward PE, for such a great mid cap pharma company/stock, ripe for rerating and very limited downside in this volatile market,a good defensive bet, can rise up to 40 % in 1 yr on a conservative basis.

Bought Avanti feeds, again after superb Q1, and trusting the mgmnt guidance, stock corrected to lower level after bumper Q1 due to mkt fall, stock split etc will keep it high, I think along with Q2 numbers is expected to be again good.

Reduced Capital first due to LAP concerns and no pick up in Indian economy as expected, higher NPAs, found better opportunities due to mkt correction

Can Fin Homes 25 %
Kitex Garments 20 %
Ajanta Pharma 20 %
Torrent pharma 13 %
Avanti feeds 10 %
Repco Home 10 %
Arman Financial 2 %

Jan to Sept YTD return is down to 40 %
Looking forward to Q2 results for some zing in PF :smile:


Dear All,

As the year comes to end, it is time to reflect on many aspects of life including the journey of investing ( value ? not sure). One way to look at this is evaluate PF return in numbers ( x %), the other indicator would be the quality of these returns ( how less stressful was the journey). The other qualitative aspect is as an investor how one has progressed over the last several years. This is where VP comes into picture and the community here has been of great help and asset. I have been in market for last 15 years ( with x % CAGR) but last few years at VP has helped me improve the journey as an investor mostly on qualitative part. Although this coincided with bull run in mid cap and small cap stocks, I think there is method in madness and this will be tested again in the next big bear market.

Coming to PF, the year has been good for me, with PF return of 56 % ( Jan to Dec) in 2015. I am sure 2014 was an excellent year for many of us here, with market being up 30 %. But this year with - 6 % index, PF return is more satisfying at personal level.

As I have shared earlier, I follow a highly concentrated PF with generally 5-7 stocks with very high convictions. Generally I prefer buy and hold strategy for longer terms, but this year dye to range bound market, I had to tweak the strategy in the middle of year for better returns.

I prepared a table listing all my high conviction stocks, valuation levels and my allocation. I continuously evaluated depending upon over/under valuation levels which stocks is expected to give higher return in next year. Some of the stocks were Ajanta Pharma, Can fin homes, Kitex, Kaveri, Cupid, Torrent pharma, Alembic, capital first, Repco Home, Shilpa, Avanti Feeds, PI industries. It is important to note that these are the stocks I had amlost equal, but high level on conviction. The other consideration was to avoid short term capital gains tax, so min holding period had to be 1 year. So when mkt was going no where, I shuffled my PF and sold high valuation stocks with smell of some trouble and moved to low valuation stocks. This worked. I could get out of Avanti, Kaveri, Repco, Shilpa, PI on time, so the opportunity cost was very low. Since one has equally high conviction in the next stock, it didnt matter much if one is not paying STCG taxes. I has misses also, like missed to do the same when Kitex was 1000 +, got carried away the valuation mkt was giving. The other thumb rule was to remain 100 % invested all the time, so that one doesnt miss out on mkt returns.
My Present PF is as below
Can fin homes 28 %
Torrent pharma 25 %
Kitex 19 %
Cupid - 17 %
Omkar Speciality & Capital trust - 10 %
The stock which I have very high conviction at this level are Kitex & Cupid,
Can fin should also be a 25 - 30 % compounder.

To be honest,2016 looks very challenging , I will be happy with a 35 - 40 % return on a higher base.
Wishing the entire community a Very Happy and High Return New Year

I am thankful to many in this community for helping me in this journey and a special thanks to @hitesh2710 bhai, whose has helped (many like me) and I find myself very close to his kind of thought process and mental model, who is anyway 10/15 year ahead (long way) of me in this journey and always look forward to learn from all members from this community and contribute to the best of my abilities.



@sinha124 Hats off…56% return in this market is astonishing…the fact of the matter is I have all these stocks of what u had …be it Ajanta, Avanti, Repco, PI, kitex etc…by the time, I came near the STCG avoidance timeframe, the peaks were long gone plus I did not follow the ultra concentrated PF theme…because of this I am not even at half of ur return…but I am still astonished by the 56%…so, is my biggest sin - not having the concentrated PF…? hard to digest that but it is one of the main reason for sure…more over, I had built mine around Jan-nov14 and by the time they became LTCG…infact, the LTCG business was so hard that I lost the peaks of 21 plus in eicher and 17 plus in Page…and that alone was deadly…
all the peaks were long gone…looking forward to 2016

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Love your portfolio!

I just own 6 stocks (Ajanta, Shilpa, Torrent Pharma, GRUH, Eicher and Symphony) and got returns of 21%. Nice to see and read you and other awesome peers here at VP. Keep posting. :slightly_smiling:

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Thanks @KS16 and @drgrudge

I think it was more of luck than calibre. Thats why I said 2016 seems to be challenging, I am working to reduce my expectations continuously from this market. I am also aware of increasing tendency of investor becoming trader. I am sure mkt will throw many more opportunities as the time passes by, so one needs to be patient and prepared all the time.

I will invite others also to give suggestions/comment of PF stocks, which I am always keen to learn from this community and seniors.


Great going santosh.

Try to enjoy the process rather than focussing too much on returns. Once u start enjoying the process all the ingredients of successful investing come together and returns usually follow.

My learning over the past year has been to try to keep looking for good opportunities and once u find them try comparing them with the existing companies in the PF and if u feel a switch is a wise step then go for it.

What happens is that most of the times market is like a pendulum which swings from over pessimism to over optimism even in individual stocks. e.g Nothing has changed on the ground for companies like ajanta and page in terms of them giving decent growth. But it was the investor sentiment that took page to beyond 16k and ajanta to beyond 1700 levels. Both have given decent corrections and now many who were feeling gung ho about these companies at their peaks are worried about mundane things in these companies. (this is not a recommendation but an attempt to understand the psychology of market participants towards these companies) We can directly read the threads on these companies and try to find out answers bcos here on VP all those sentiments are documented.:relaxed:

I think people need to modify their investment strategies according to market phases. In full blown bull market one can afford to sit tight and ride their winners without bothering too much about their valuations whereas in case of bear markets or range bound markets one can be somewhat opportunistic also.