Found the latest EC (filed in Oct) and some supporting docs. Posting the interesting findings here.
- Bilastine which I was worried about would decline is actually marginally going up in volume
- Benzidine Triol (Treprostinil - Tyvaso) as well is up in volume. High value, low vol
- BCX-2477 is intermediate for forodesine (orphan drug). High value, low vol
- BOC - Ketone happens to be the high-value simparica intermediate mentioned in last post. As I was guessing, the capacity for this proposed to be 15 TPA (~250 Cr value)
- No change in #9 and #10 which are Bluejepa intermediates. Current volume indicates revenue potential of ~500 Cr from Blujepa alone
- Tosylate Stage E appears to be intermediate for Bilastine. Nothing to be excited about
- ACT-674509B is Ponvory (for multiple sclerosis) - Currently owned by Vanda. Realisation ~$400/kg
- NBI - 77810 big reduction. This is Orilissa. No shipments since June ‘20. So no likely impact
- OH-THF is S-3-Hydroxytetrahydrofuran likely used in Empagliflozin. Nothing exciting. Not very high value (~190/kg)
- MLS-101 is Lorundrostat - Pretty big molecule (Company filed NDA earlier this month). Could be ~$20m for Sai (~$1100/kg drug)
- S-L Compound is likely spiro-lactam and is Atogepant/Ubrogepant (Qulipta/Ubrelvy). This is $3500/kg molecule. Likely potential here is $87m (~750-800 Cr)
- CF3 Ketone is Simparica earlier intermediate which stopped in FY23. Even this is back and big. 50 TPA is 3x their FY23 volume of ~17T. Could be ~$20m
- Idorsia ACT374274 is Quviviq for migraines. This is big potential drug. ~$13m potential (~120 Cr). This drug is scaling up very well as per public data
- BCX-6494 and BCX-7611 is Orladeyo. Latter is ~$7150/kg. So even 2.5 TPA is $18m (~160 Cr)
Rest are mostly much smaller so ignoring them. Overall capacity is going up from 213 TPA to 394 TPA. There is pretty good visibility from this capex of ~3000 Cr+ in revenue. Current CDMO revenue is only ~1350 Cr so the expansion I think can help them double revenue in the next 2-3 yrs.
Disc: Invested. No recent transactions. I am a novice and just putting out info I am finding with my own interpritations. I am likely to be wrong. These are complex businesses where lot of things can go wrong and these capacities are just notional indicators of where the company is heading