S.H. Kelkar Ltd

Market Size

The total market size of the Indian fragrance and flavour industry is estimated at 3800 Crores in terms of value and 63.72 thousand tons in terms of volume for the calendar year 2014. Out of this total value, 55.0% was attributable to the Indian fragrance market, and 45.0% to the Indian flavour market.

Disposable incomes are rising in the world’s emerging markets together with consumer spending, especially in the emerging middle class that is increasingly able to afford packaged food and beverages and personal care items. Emerging markets are expected to be the primary growth driver of the global fragrance and flavour industry. As the economy grows, people consume more products. A number of these products are concentrated across half a dozen fastest-growing categories. By providing the largest quantum of fragrances in India, Keva has emerged as an indirect driver and faithful proxy of the Indian economy.

Fragrances and flavours are considered to be one of the important factors for consumers in deciding whether to repurchase a product and these factors often influence their decisions, thereby making them one of the key components of FMCG and integral part of product attributes.

  • Barriers to Entry The global fragrance and flavour industry is characterized worldwide by high barriers to market entry. Some of these barriers to entry include Established long term relationships between fragrance and flavour companies and their customers, especially FMCG manufacturers, may pose an entry barrier for new players to the global fragrance and flavour industry
  • Fragrance and flavour companies typically have to enter at an early stage of product development and such timely opportunities may not always be available to new entrants.

Market share

  • Givaudan – 23%
  • IFF – 14%
  • Firmenich – 14%
  • SHK – 12%
  • Symrise – 7%
  • Others – 29%

While SHK has 12% overall share, it has 21% + in fragrance and is number 3. In flavours it has just 2%

About the company

  • Earlier it was called Kelkar Gorup , but now name changed to KEVA.

  • Has three brands, SHK, Cobra and KEVA

  • Cobra is their branded fragrance – 10% Contribution

  • SHK, set up by two Maharashtrian brothers in 1922 - inspired by Gandhi’s Non-Cooperation Movement that had urged India to ban imported materials.

  • This is the 3rd Generation in the business - All Family members are trained chemists. Family settlement happened in 2010 and current family got the business.

  • They hired a professional CEO to run the business from 2010-2014

  • Professional CEO B Ramkrishnan was bought in in the year 2010 – Ram used to run his own fragrance firm called Privi Organics, which was later bought over by Givaudan. He then headed fragrance business of Givaudan – but effective 2014, he has been Director Strategy

  • Kedar Vaze, worked for 4 years under B Ramkrsihnan in 5 departments before becoming CEO

  • Raised 243 Crores from Blackstone in 2012 for 34.5% Stake, valuing the company at 700 Crores

  • IPO done at Rs. 180 in the year 2015

  • Global MNC’s are biggest competitor – but large part of their customer is Global MNC Brand

  • In Indian FMCG Cos SHK has the highest share – by a wide distance

  • Domestic FMCG Cos have 50% market today – and SHK has 21% share in that

  • Factories

Pre IPO

  • Raigargh – 40% cap utilisation in 2015
  • Vapi – 35% cap utilisation in 2015
  • Mulund – 40% cap utilisation in 2015
  • Netherland – 75% cap utilisation in 2015

Post-IPO

  • Year 2016 - Acquired flavour biz of Gujarat Flavours - Approx 15 Crore

  • Year 2017 - ought Mumbai-based VN Creative Chemicals Pvt. Ltd(VNCC) as part of efforts to cut costs in its overseas fragrance division - Mahad facility added

  • Year 2017 - Set up Fragrance Studio in Amsterdam – will help it in premium fragrances

  • Year 2018 - Acquired Creative Flavours & Fragrances SpA (CFF) in Milan – this will help in building Fine Fragrances – Acquired 51% for 8

  • Acquired Anhui China

  • Portfolio

  • Fragrance Portfolio

    • Personal Care

    • Hair Care

    • Skin Care

    • Fabric Care

    • Household Products

    • Aroma Ingredients Flavour Portfolio

    • Dairy products

    • Beverage

    • Confectionary

    • Bakery

    • Pharma

    • Jams and Spreads
      90% Revenue 10% Revenue

  • 3000 Local and MNC Customers

    • Marico – uses SH Kelkar in Parachute Hair Oil
    • Godrej – uses it in Godrej No. 1 Soap
    • Jyothy lab
    • Vini Cosmetics
    • JK Helene Curtis
    • HUL
    • No Customer has more than 5% contribution
    • Flavour is sold to Britannia, Vicco, Vadilal
  • 5 Development Centres – Indonesia, Netherlands and 3 in India,

  • Globally fragrance firms command valuations in price/earnings range of 22-23, similar to that of FMCG businesses.

  • In 2010 they made their first acquisition – Netherlands based PFW Aroma Chemicals

  • Top 10 Suppliers contribute 35% of their RM Requirement

  • Attracting and retaining talent is very important – because there is limited numbers of skilled perfumers and flavourists - The family owns Kelkar Education Trust which runs Vaze College (popular as Kelkar college), where there is an advanced course on perfumery.

  • There is hardly any chance of a decline in revenues as 90 percent of the customers are sticky.”

  • Spends 3% on R&D - Large fragrance and flavour companies spend approximately 6.5% to 10.0% of their sales proceeds on research and development

Global

  • The global fragrance and flavour industry is estimated to be worth US$ 23.90 billion with an almost equal split between the fragrance and flavour markets.
  • The top 12 companies operating in the global fragrance and flavour industry held approximately 83.0% of the global fragrance and flavour industry. These top 12 companies can be further broken down into the top four companies, consisting of
    • Givaudan SA,
    • Firmenich,
    • International Flavors and Fragrances, Inc. and
    • Symrise AG,

that individually hold a market share of above 10.0%, and collectively hold 57.0% of the overall global fragrance and flavour industry among them.

Risks

  • A persistent problem has been its inability to pass on the costs of high inflation to the customers with immediate effect. While it is able to raise prices, there is typically a lag which hits profitability in the medium term. “We have large stock-in-trade which results in huge working capital requirements,” says Vaze. The lack of trained manpower is another impediment in this process-driven business.

  • Keva Aromatics Private Limited and Purandar Fine Chemicals Private Limited, are engaged in the same line of business as our Company – but there is no major activities in this

Key Raw Materials

  • Geraniol
  • PEA
  • Lemon Grass
  • Lavender
  • Geranium

Annual Report takeaways

Year 2016

  • It took us nine decades to reach the 1,000 crore-revenue milestone. We expect to achieve more than six times this growth in a decade
  • Emerge among the ten largest global fragrance companies within this decade
  • Account for a 1% global market share over the next four years and 2.5% of the global market share over the next decade
  • Enhance our share of the Indian flavours market from 2% to 10% over the foreseeable future
  • At Keva, our vision is to emerge among the ten largest fragrance companies in the world within a decade
  • Traditionally, Keva has focused on six large downstream sectors, which are not only faithful proxies of the country’s economic growth but also use large quantities of fragrances in their products. These comprise personal care, hair care, skin care and cosmetics, fabric care, household products and fine fragrances

Year 2017

  • In the past, we were content being a large Indian company. We soon realised that our market was relatively small by global standards; the time then has come to evolve from the ‘small big’ Indian Company to the ‘big small’ global company.
  • Keva will enter select countries instead of spreading thin across a large number. In view of this, our global presence will be generally built bottom-up through a deeper understanding of grass-root customer needs as opposed to sitting in India and attempting to guess what might work in remote markets.
  • For one, we do not expect to enter a large number of countries at one shot; we will enter only as many countries that fit into our strategic attractiveness criteria. Besides, we will enter only those geographies where we see demographics unfold the way they did in India, leveraging our familiarity into how consumer response and appetites will evolve in the future.
  • Did three small acquisitions but all in India – Different from stated objective
  • Opened a fragrance Studio in Amsterdam

Year 2018

  • The Flavours business was also hit by strong headwinds due to geopolitical turbulences and a sharp hike in citrus oils and other raw materials leading to 18% decline in the international market

  • Interestingly, this performance came despite the unprecedented raw material disruptions in the later half of the year, which we weathered successfully through our focussed inventory management.

  • There were some unprecedented supply-side disruptions that impacted the industry during the year

  • External factors beyond our control caused these disruptions, which included some problems with supply of ingredients due to a major fire in BASF’s German chemical plant, forcing them to declare a force majeure.

  • Then there was the environmental clean-up drive in China that led to the closure of several chemical plants in the country.

  • The hurricane Irma, which hit Florida in September 2017, adversely affected the availability of citrus oils and other raw materials, which hit the supply chain quite badly.

  • The acquisition of Creative Flavours & Fragrances SpA (CFF), an Italian company headquartered in Milan, endorsed this strategy. With the acquisition, which took place in January 2018, we have acquired 51% ownership stake in CFF, which is one of the top five players in the Italian market today and is engaged in the production and sale of fragrances.

  • As per the agreement, the company is to acquire 51% stake upfront for approx. Euro 12 million. Remaining stake shall be acquired within three years, consideration for which shall be paid based on CFF’s performance.

  • We believe this acquisition, along with our Fine Fragrance Studio in Amsterdam, will strengthen our strategy to expand our presence and product offerings in our focussed growth areas.

  • The Studio has excellent synergies with the newly acquired CFF, as both Amsterdam and Milan, being fashion capitals of the world, will provide us with access to the premium ingredients.

  • Keva Fragrances Pvt Ltd has acquired 100% share capital of VN Creative Chemicals Pvt. Ltd. (‘VNCC’), which is in the business of aroma ingredients. The acquisition provides us full control of land and manufacturing facility in Mahad, Maharashtra, giving us the lever to optimise our Opex in the overseas fragrance division. We expect to showcase higher operational efficiency in the Fragrance division from FY 2018-19 onwards as a result of this initiative

  • One major step that we expect to significantly add to our cost efficiencies is our decision to operationally reorganise PFW Aroma Ingredients B.V. (‘PFW’), which is expected to be completed by mid-2018. Restructuring of the PFW operations is expected to allow greater flexibility in backend manufacturing, leading to better profitability going forward. Our R&D facility in the Netherlands remains fully functional and will continue to be a key focus area for powering our future forward growth strategy.

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Thanks @Naman_Gupta for your post which aroused my interest in this. Did a lot of digging on this last night, got some interesting insights and takeaways:

  1. Promoters acquired 3.5 lakh shares at 75 on March 30-31. Interestingly this doesn’t show up in the Q4 shareholding pattern. I’m thinking because the shares are credited on T+2 basis hence, this should now show up in next quarter’s shareholding pattern.
    https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/s-h-kelkar-and-company-ltd/shk/539450/disclosures-insider-trading-2015/

  2. Company reduced debt by almost 100 crore in Q3 and debt equity position looks much better. Expect debt to reduce 20-25cr each quarter from now on. From Q3 concall
    “on a quarter-on-quarter, net debt has reduced by INR 97 crores. And our net debt-to-equity position has improved to 0.37x as on December 2019”

  3. Raw materials cost softening, improving margins and extremely strong bullish management guidance. Obviously Covid will impact this, however the demand outlook or margin outlook should remain same for some time post Covid as well
    “In 2021, we foresee that we will have an – continue our double-digit plus growth and improving margins. We have indicated already that we will touch 18% EBITDA plus, and we are very well poised to beat those numbers. I think in terms of the business challenges, we are now geared. We have the product mix. We have a very strong pipeline of products and projects that are coming on stream. So we see 2021 as a – '21 as a year where the business will normalize post the effects of GST demonetization, and we should have a healthy growth and profitability”

Q3 Concall link - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-shk-nse-earnings-163906438.html

  1. Internationally similar flavors and fragrances businesses are valued at 20-22x earnings

Now here are the risks in my view:

  1. Average quality business not a long term buy and hold…doesn’t have much pricing power - huge impact on margins and profitability of raw material prices
  2. Leverage fueled expansion strategy - too many acquisitions too quickly - can read more in Ashwani’s post. Also one of the acquisitions in Netherlands already failed and led to write off of 30+ crore in Q3. Management however didn’t agree that it was a mistake or they’re growing too fast
  3. Stock price in uncharted territory - lost >75% from all-time highs. Either needs to stabilize and begin bottom formation process or have V shape recovery. Looking at it simply may purely be attributed to deteriorating business performance of last 3 years. However, dramatic stock price declines raises suspicions on authenticity of business operations, promoter integrity, cash generation, etc.
  4. Promoter’s guidance may need to be taken with a bowl of salt
  5. Mention of completing the Italy acquisition which might increase debt back to 400 cr levels

The single most striking aspect for me from above is promoters acquisition of 3.5 lac shares at ~75 which is now ~30% down roughly 80 lacs. I doubt the promoters would make such a losing trade without some positive business insights.

Q4 results are key - expecting OPM to be much improved as raw material prices had stabilized around December/January.

Disc: Took a small position today. Stock moved up > 11-12% intraday, lost most of it’s gains but it was a good sign according to me that it may be somewhere near the bottom. If promoter’s guidance is even remotely correct for FY21, see significant upside on this.

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I followed this business for a while but didn’t enter because there was a big mismatch between valuation and growth prospects. But now the valuation came down to reasonable levels (I would still say it reasonable and not cheap).

There are some big merits in the business that most chemical companies lack.

Pros

Annuity Business: Steady business from existing clients with new client addition or more business from existing clients. Existing business will grow if the product for which they supply flavour or fragrance sells more. They can hike price only in case of RM inflation.

Sticky Client Base: It is practically impossible to replicate completely a particular flavour or fragrance. Also, fragrance & flavour constitutes only a negligible part of the overall cost of a product. So, unless the company messes it up a big way, a client is certain to remain sticky, at least until the life cycle of the product ends.

Entry Barrier: Its hard to get proper certification & licenses and establish relationships with clients. Also, the companies need to retain flavorists, which are a rare breed. There are hardly 500 total flavorists worldwide. So, it is hard to recruit & retain one.

Proxy to FMCG: It is probably the best chemical proxy to FMCG as all FMCG products need fragrances or flavours. So, the business has a long runaway for growth.

All these points make the company & its peers the best buy & hold candidates in chemical domain. However, for that the company needs to show a good listed track record for managing the following cons.

Cons

Lack of pricing power: But, it’s a B2B business and so margin is not high and there will always be a lag before transferring RM inflation to clients. They almost don’t have any further pricing power.

Cost optimisation is critical: They can improve margins by only doing vertical integration. Currently they source all the raw materials.

Slow Grower: Fragrance market is slow growing. Worldwide it is growing in low single digits. Flavour market is growing in high single digits. They already have good share of domestic fragrance market share and it is tough to gain market share for aforementioned reasons.

Flavour market share is highly fragmented with unorganised players holding a larger chunk. Unorganised players are supposed to have less r&d prowess and poor quality control. So, they can grow market share in this segment through acquisitions of unorganised players and small organised players. Also, they are now also focusing on some foreign markets with similar demographics (so tastes) like India.

The price correction post COVID-19 isn’t abnormal as new businesses seem bleak in the next couple of years. Most FMCG companies will resist from launching new products or new variants and focus more on optimising distribution. Growth in existing products is also expected to be pretty low. Furthermore the company wouldn’t benefit from “Diversification away from China story”. So, it didn’t participate in the chemical rally.

Note: I’ve written everything from memory and so may err on the numbers. I last followed this business almost 10 months back. I may update the post in future with correct stats.

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Maybe seniors and people who are following the company and give a fair interpretation of the above in terms of does this seems good for the company going ahead?

SH Kelkar Q420 call rough notes

RM : citrus …orange juice ; petroleum related, spices

13% overall marketshare; in fragnances 20% market share ; unorganized market share :25%

personal wash…clearning products …sanitizers 12% growth like seen in our Italian subsidiary

China is operating normally…there could be some import duties…so we are keeping stocks

in Global MNC clients…we have very small market share…1-2% share from our 1000 cr revenue

50% of revenue…from India……1-2% from global MNC; we have products

very strong in middle segment…very low in global mnc…unilver etc; very strong domestic fmcg cos …which are 40% of fragnances side; and 30% in flavours size…Godrej, Emami, Dabur…all well known…are large clients for us. 2000 clients…across 60 clients….supply to midsize clients

10-20 lacs…potential sales…starting customer sales

personal wash……10 lacs -1 cr : medium ; large clients : 1 cr plus…

top 10 customers : 25% of revenue …wiidely distributed

Other income dropped a lot : last year write back…; this year normal…export incentives ; forex gains

this year also same 23 cr amortization for M&A…like last year…in other expenses…

we are in the business…been for 90 years…FAMILY person…business follows…more data, prototypes you have…consumer trends…; R&D spend is 3% of revenues for many year…can select products and trends for the consumer; same for flavours…USP : local understanding

Italy…etc is like BCP…when India was shut.we could service middle east clients fr

we have 3 global M&A : aroma ; China, & Netherlands (shut that factory and mfg brought to India/China ?); Netherlands factory moved to Mahad, India– R&D…buy for R&D ; now we have acquired in Italy

In SE Asia for 40 years. European market is where…we get global trends…thats where global trends…start…sell In European markets…

capex : 21 cr; last 5 years…capex has doubled…but revenue and operating profits flattish; not looking to add capacaity…50-60% capacity utilization; enough headroom

CFS, Italy….capacity…Italy…to cater

India, SE asia. Africa is established market 25 years

Euripea and china we will start to develop

some written off & capitalized expenses…net results…is neutral….no additional charge off

49% stake of CFF Italy…remaining : $16 mn Euro (128 cr)…outlay to buy remining 49%…we are negotiating (straight forward) ; 18-20% ebitda margin…like SH Kelkar core business

we are done with our capex…had to relook at our Netherlands capex…(move to India)…our capex is done

Q1 revnues : 8.5 mn

We could ccross sell opportuntieis ; but now in operational…we have alternate production side…as India has production delays

GROWTH GUIDANCE for 2021: opportunities are high…when things normalize …we have strong demand…fmcg…cos are operating….how can we service…people movement…thats the constraint….we have high automation in fragnances side…enables us…at faster clip when things recede…post opening…up…small customers…would buy…& RM volatility …

Gross margins : 45%…historically…we had lost…force majure in China in 2018…we are not on other wise…on supply will be easy…will have normal

General trend for pricing…43-44% for gross margins for coming years…no change…; global sales…demand for fine fragnances will be less…so that’s a negative impact; volume and value…; Netherlands business shift to India…cost savings in opex…: 12 cr cost savings has been realized…employee…costs come down…objective realized…entire $2 mn realized…2017 to 2021 number that difference in $2 mn realized…in fy 2020…has been realized

R&D spending 50-55 cr in fy 20; flattish…in fy 19…and will stabilize…amortisation & capitalization…same 50-55 cr…reduced research in Netherlands…bring down R&D…5-7 cr further……5-10 cr…additional reduction in R&D…in this year

Demand environment is reasonable. not falling.

You had indicated 100 cr fcf…from the business…; depends India starts….100 cr fcf is very well within reach. Jan & Feb…were good months…for us…last 10 days of March…strong demand…we lost 30 cr…we would have closed 300 cr revenue for q4

every year last qtr/march is strong; April & May….April we were closed…in May 17h of we have started…40-50% of operations…we have covered 50 cr of rvenues…in these 2 months….15 days in normal production. we will catch up….fluid situation…we should be normal output in June

Net debt : 300 cr……100-120 cr…normal fcf we are generating……will look to buy 49% of Italian subsidiary…maintain debt at 300 cr or below…

large customers : 1 cr plus…40% of sales…next cut…below 1 cr is 30% of sales (10 lacs to 1cr) rest…smaller ;… DOMESTIC of business

market share of large domestic firms : 15% growth in last 2 years. ; last year degrowth in smaller clients; had it not been in covid…

fy 16 to fy 20.: point to point 3%. increase… ; 5 year period margin increase/decreased ?...fy 16…

last 2-3 years : GST, demonetization, force majure, ; we will cut down on longer term research programme, will focus on 1-2 years research work…revenues…overall margins will improve

we seem to be growing slower than industry : Unorganised is 25-30% of fmcg industry…with GST…they have degrown

except Univelver…in the big cos…our portfolio…our growth rates with domesitic fmcg revenue growth…was same;

smaller regional brands… degwoth hurt last year

this year no degrowth of smaller clients…last year had

margins…is same intl & domestic is same

margins come down to 12% from 15% in fy 15-16/18

300 bps…erosion : 200 bps raw materials…only now stable…; 100 bps…other expenses….somoe one offs as we have taken redundinces

standalone business margins 20%…to 11%…contraction

R&D spend at 55 cr …5% of sales…we have lever …3-4%…target R&D…; we have been trying to grow at 13-14%…industry growth…has been 3-4%… in last 3-4 years.(20% unorganized guys got killed post GST…which hurt us…in small guys…and also MNCs have gained)…which has affected us…; RM due to force majure…flaours…we exited 50 cr of rveneue….5-6% growth…we have churned to better margin products…; we have moved to lower growth…products…better credit terms….stable…

MNC;s buy from MNC tie ups….no entry barrier…its just time…; we have our strengths they have their strengths…we don’t have; they have global presence…

Capacity utilization doesn’t really matter ; cost per kilo…; we operate at 50% cap util plants; currently we are operating at 25%…half ;

average selling price; premium products….

sir, what has average selling price been increasing every year

50 cr of rveenues in q1…done in ; 30 cr of March revenue…most is deffereed…10 cr come in 50 cr…

Demand side will increase more than last year : 8-10% across board additional demand…as competition cannot supply…we will take market share……50 cr of new wins…annualized 70-80 cr of new revenue for coming year…subject to covid…how much we can servce…in this year…50 cr

SKIN CARE in Lotions…is small in value fragnaneces is 4%

body wash…we call personal care

in Jan-Feb : 3-5 years plans :

THERE WILL BE further consolidation…competitive space across world…; those who can service…will get a boost…in SE asia, Africa…middle east….; we have ready prototypes ; we are well placed……w; we should track double digit growth rates

320 cr of non RM costs :…how much 20% decline ?..what is reqd and essential for next 2-3 years…; prototyping we will reduce,

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In India 4 plants are running with 60 - 70% capacity
Italy - Running on full basis
China - Running on full basis

Current Scenario : Ramping production up to 100% next week
The management is very confident about regular growth.
25cr extra demand on covid-19 for sanitizer & hygiene or personal wash categories
20% in Italy a result of covid

image

Disc : Took a entry position last week, currently tracking…

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*SH Kelkar Q1FY21 concall highlights

Business and Financial highlights

• Q1 Cash from operations – ₹ 61cr
• Q1 Net debt – ₹ 246cr (March 2020 – ₹ 299cr)
• Lower staff cost – ~₹ 6.5cr, half of the reduction can be sustainable
• Lower operating expenses – ~₹ 12cr, ₹ 10cr one-off and balance is sustainable
• Exited from Citrus oil-based business in flavours division – ~₹ 25cr, due to low margin
• Top 10 customers – 10-15%
• Pipeline of new wins across Covid related categories
• Most of the ₹ 30cr deferred revenues have been recovered and expect to recover remaining post normalisation of customer operations.

CFF, Italy

• Acquired remaining 49% stake in Creative Flavours and Fragrances (CFF), Italy for a consideration of Euro 16mn
• CFF financials – FY19 Euro 17.49mn, FY18 Euro 16.39mn, FY17 Euro 13.85mn
• Jan-Jun 2020 total revenues – ₹ 123.7cr
• Core fragrance revenues – ₹ 70.8cr, gross margins – 55%, growing business
• Contract manufacturing revenues – ₹ 52.8cr, gross margins – 12%, stable, largely takes care of fixed costs
• 51% stake – bought at Euro 12mn in January 2018
• Valuation for 51% stake at ~9x EBITDA
• Manufacturing facility in Italy
• 95% revenues from fragrances, no ingredients
• Focus on textile, fabric care segments
• Expect to grow at 6% CAGR in Euros
• Euro 1.5mn invested last year
• Cost of debt – ~2% linked to Euribor

Fragrance division

• Q1 degrowth – Domestic -26%, overseas -30%, total -28%
• Q1 revenues – ₹ 176cr (₹ 244cr), operating profit – ₹ 26cr (₹ 36cr)
• Revenues breakup – domestic 68%, overseas 32%

Flavour division
• Q1 degrowth – Domestic -58%, overseas -37%, total -47%
• Q1 revenues – ₹ 15cr (₹ 28cr), operating profit – ₹ 0cr (₹ 4cr)
• Revenues breakup – domestic 38%, overseas 62%
Financials and Outlook
• Current debt – ~₹ 380cr, expect to repay ~₹ 100cr in current year
• No capex plan for the next few years
• Aspiration to garner EBITDA margins of 20% and RoCE of 20%
• Expect ₹ 140cr cash flows, to utilise for debt repayment, and dividend payment
• Inventory days – normally 100 days for incremental sales
• Expect ~43% gross margins for FY21E
• FY21E – expect to maintain FY20E revenues and margins
• FY22E revenue growth – ~8%, later ~12% growth (non CFF business)
• Capex ~20% ingredients segment – operating at 80% utilisation, may need some investments
• Capex ~80% fragrance segment (~₹ 1,000cr revenues) – potential to earn double/ treble revenues without any capex
• Maintenance capex FY21E – less than ₹ 15-20cr (as per last concall)
• Expect lower investment in R&D – invested heavily over past few years so have a strong library which can be utilised over the next couple of years
• Inventory days reduction of ~8-10 days per year
• Briefs – compete with 2-4 players, win ratio 1 in 3/ 4

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'we will grow 12% domestically after 2021" " Next 3 years is going to be slow for the industry"

Cogitative dissonance in the concall by Mr. Vaze.

any industry persons any insights on their execution ?

financially FCF is very good, but disappointed on growth guidance last many years

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Wont fragrance sector contribute to hand sanitizer?

Update on Concall :









Sanitizer Business :









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Stock looking quite mouthwatering after correction on annualized earnings 9x PE. Scars of earlier bad guidance by management has left scars with buyside. If they can deliver on guidance as they have in last Quarter, should be a sweet rerating

disc : (adding at cmp)

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Looks like there’s been heavy selling by promoter on December 16th. Source https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/s-h-kelkar-company-ltd/SHK/539450/disclosures-insider-trading-2015/
Almost 1.3% holding sold in open market. Any one knows if this was inter transfer or plain Market Sale?

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Looks like market sale and happened from 15th to 17th in three tranches by Keva construction. Explains the 8% dip onnthe three days.

Keva Construction was increasing their share from Sep 2018 to Jun 2019 and seem to have sold off exactly that amount now, taking their holding back to Jun 2018 levels

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As per the disclosure (link)

Amidst an environment of extreme volatility and uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the promoter group had purchased a total of 35,18,756 shares, representing 2.5% of total stake in the Company, reinforcing our confidence in SHK’s strong business model and future growth outlook. With the broader operating environment now witnessing normalization and due to certain personal commitments, the promoter group stake sale was affected. The promoter group continues to hold 58.6% of total stake and temains strongly committed towards driving and participating in the long-term business growth of the Company.

Makes one wonder what “personal commitment” the group has and any stresses the group faces. Does anyone know what other activities they do ?

Many posters here see how undervalued the shares might be but if the promoters don’t see value, it doesn’t show confidence

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Latest Financial Results (Q3FY21):

Revenues from operations at Rs. 375.4 Cr.
EBITDA at Rs. 71.8 Cr. with margins at 18.7%
PAT at Rs. 35.0 Cr.

Earnings Presentation:

Thanks!

While concall will give more insights, on face value results looks good, and possibly giving enough reasons for rerating triggers

  • On 9 month basis Revenue at 918cr ( up 10% YoY) and PAT at 91cr( excluding EI - up 54% YoY) -

  • FY 21 can close with 1300 cr revenue and 125Cr PAT - Current market cap is under 1800Cr - A FMCG proxy business with high cash flow and low capital requirements is available at 1.4X sales and 14PE

  • fall from its glory days - market has derated from a PE of 50 in FY15 to 10ish in FY20. - per screener data

  • multiple possible reasons- flat revenue growth/ capital allocation in efficiency/rising debt / impairment and so on…

  • Margins back to good times, to improve further per commentaries

  • Tide seems to be turning with decent numbers from CFF acquisition - total acquisition approx 250 cr for a business with annualized 280 cr annual revenue and 25-30 cr PAT - ( excluding low margin contract mfg business sales figures of approx 80 cr a year, return ratio will look much superior)

  • All impairment taken up in FY19

  • Debt equity is around 0.5 ( finance cost halved to 4cr from 8cr YoY in this qtr)

Invested post Q3 updates

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For PE derating I understand some management discord and overs teering on acquisition drive which caused increased debt levels and leverage was reason. Now it’s cleared off and company has moved ahead under Mr. Kedar Vaze leadership. Also management has mentioned major capex is over and don’t see any new thing coming till next year end. Also synergies from acquisitions coming into play now and resulting into better cash flows. So PE re-rating is expected.
Discl: invested after Q3 results confirned above mentioned case with 10% PF allocation

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I think PE re-rating may happen but it will be slow and mostly due to the rising tide of the bull market where every stock is getting lifted and nothing specific to the company. The reason being the lousy nature of the promoter and the management. They seems to have no genuine interest and seriousness about their business - remember they sold 20L shares in open market last quarter when the stock was just getting the traction?

This was further evident in yesterdays conference call - the call was supposed to start at 2 PM but it didn’t until 2:20 PM and when they finally started the call, nobody from the management has the courtesy to explain the reason behind the delay, let alone apologize for it. Then Kedar Vaze tried to pass on the mike for the opening remark to someone else who apparently was not prepared at all and wasted another 5 mins saying “Yes…I am here…ahh…uhh…” - etc. They finally started at around 2:30 PM and by that time I lost all interest.

I think promoter quality matters most when you invest in a company especially when there are other options available in the market. I think that is what reflected in the price action - even though the results are good and the stock is fairly valued (compared to the peers), it is down more than 5% post results announcement.

Disclosure: I hold the stock around 124 and no plans to add further. Views are personal and not a buy or sell recommendation.

Thanks!

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