Rajshree Polypack - The food packaging specialist

Q3FY23 NOTES:

• SALES GUIDANCE - current year – 255-260cr. Q3 is the weakest quarter (generally -10% volume decline qoq). Q4 and Q1 are the strongest quarters.

• EBITDA MARGINS: Current quarter ebitda got impacted because of seasonality and higher electricity costs. Generally, Q1 and Q4 are better for us in terms of requirements and the margins are generally better in this particular quarter. We have moved to a new location at Sarigam where our electricity cost is on the higher side and we expect that to get compensated through GST subsidy, which we are expecting to roll out or to get the clearance in another 1 month or 2 months’ time, and probably in a year we will get around Rs. 1 to Rs.1.5 crore compensated through GST subsidy. So that will help us in bringing back that additional ½ a percent or 1% into the EBITDA numbers. And at the same time as we scale up, because all the investments have been done now for the plastic units, so as we scale up, we will see a further improvement coming up and will be around 15% EBITDA

• Total 19 new products added in current quarter including 12 products in injection moulding
One Product & Process patent received.

• Undertook technological upgradation in tube laminate segment and sample production commenced

• Sales volume growth 13% YOY. Lower polymer prices YOY resulted in lower value growth in overall sales.

• Presently, the company is focusing on food service segment for the injection Molding products. Sales from injection moulding with the current capacity? It will be around Rs. 16 to Rs. 18 crores per annum. It’s a new process for us, we are starting with plain vanilla products and as we have expertise on the process, we will like to add value-added products even in injection molded category

• We have also boarded more than 30 new customers in the current quarter including some overseas customers.

• Barrier packaging - We did around Rs. 16 – Rs. 17 crores of sale till 9 months. We are looking at around 30- 40% growth in this category. So that’s the rate at which we are looking at to grow.

• See, as mentioned, probably we are looking to close this year between anywhere between Rs. 255 to Rs. 260 crores, and for next year we look for additional 10 to 15% growth in the top line. That much capacity is available with us without any further major investments. So, we can look at that particular growth for next year in the top line.

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Why R.O.E. and R.O.C.E. is so Low ??

Q4FY23 NOTES:

• First in the Industry in India to manufacture Rigid Barrier Packaging Products with completely integrated facility under one roof using state-of-the-art European Machinery.

• Received 4 design and process Patents. (In Tube laminates segment)

• 33% Volume growth Q4 yoy.

• Ebitda per kg for fy23 – 30.5

• 45+ products added. 200+ no. of customers added in fy23

• Capacity expansion – Thermoforming – 8770 to 9770 MT – 3cr investment – to be added by dec23

• The sales mix on the product category as compared to the previous year:

  1. Rigid sheets is Rs. 56.7 Crores as compared to Rs. 56.7 Crores in the last year.
  2. Packaging product has increased from Rs. 126.8 Crores to Rs. 167.47 Crores.
  3. Barrier packaging has increased from Rs. 6.34 Crores to Rs. 23.85 Crores
  4. Injection molding, started in this year, has achieved sales of Rs. 4.5 Crores.

• “Growth in manufacturing business require consistent investment in capacity enhancement and we are not the exception”

15% to 20% revenue growth possible from the existing capacity. FY24 Guidance: On the revenue side, we are looking at somewhere around 15% to 20%. That is what is available from existing set up. So that’s what we are looking to achieve in this particular year.

• 180 to Rs. 200 Crores sales capacity from Olive Ecopack – 1.5-2 years needed to ramp up – Commercial production by Nov 23 – 20-25cr sales his FY

15% is stable/Sustainable Gross Ebitda margins for Rajshree. 13-15% for Olive

Electricity cost has gone up across which has increased our manufacturing cost. That is probably one of the reasons for also increasing to the manufacturing cost and little reduction in the margins. So that’s a major factor I would say that has contributed.

• Capex Guidance for FY24 – 4-5cr in RPPL, 10cr in Olive Ecopack

Barrier Packaging: We have done around Rs. 20 Crores to Rs. 23 Crores of sales in FY23 and we look to do around Rs. 32 Crores to 35 Crores in 2023- 2024.

Olive ecopack customer acquisition details: “Yes, I would say that the product is new, but the customer are common for this particular segment, for few of the customers which are in QSR segment and also for our partner who are in this segment. So we are already in touch with the customers both at the domestic level and at the overseas customer. And so we don’t need to hunt for the customers, I will say. So we know the customer, we have identified the customers, and in fact, the product range is being developed in consultation with the customers. So we are optimistic on achieving the numbers for this category as we come up with the production.”

Debt reduction: “As I mentioned, like Rs. 11 Crores is what we have to invest, out of which Rs. 4 Crores we are going to invest from the money which has come from preferential issues of shares. So balance Rs. 7 Crores and Rs. 5 Crores, Rs. 12 Crores is what we look at the total CapEx in this particular financial year. And so whatever other cash flows we’ll generate in this year, we’ll be able to definitely bring down our short term and long term debt at least by one third at the end of this financial year.”

Customer stickiness: “I will say this is a primary packaging material which has to be used onto their filling lines. So the products are designed as per their filling lines. So generally, the customers don’t change or switch to the new vendors unless we do go for unless our prices are way beyond the market standards. So we have seen that our customers are with us, stick to us for a long period of time.

“Once you acquire a customer and then they ramp up whatever business with us, then that remains generally steady, right? - Yes”

• “I would say like it’s a chicken and egg situation where whether we keep on investing because we have already done a lot of Capex in last two years, so ideally, we would like to consolidate for a year or so at least in this particular segment and then we look for further Capex.”

As we add up more barrier packaging sales to our overall revenue, we can definitely see the consolidated EBITDA numbers to go up in near future.

• Generally, the Asset turnover is we are looking at 2.5x. and we operating roughly at 15% EBITDA, so that’s equation with the industry we are working in right.

• Barrier packaging film is basically for the sweet industry, right? It’s basically for food industry wherein to increase the shelf life of the food

• Barrier Packaging Industry India: What is the current potential there in India? - The overall market at the moment is roughly at around Rs. 100 Crores - Rs. 125 Crores will say, which was almost negligible five years ago. So this is a new technology and segment which has come up and with the more and more food processing plants coming up and addition of the new processing technologies with the sweet manufacturer and the food processing unit, we will definitely see a growth in this particular segment.

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Performance and execution going on well​:+1::+1:

Currently, profits look lower because of high capex done (higher depreciation and interest costs) in last 2 years… so as operating leverage kicks in, profits should go up.

One main thing of RPPL is that I can see the vision for the company after next 10-20 years …
The reasons are : 1) Steady and growing fmcg demand (food and beverage)

  1. High customer stickiness. Once customer is acquired, they tend to stay with the company unless the company screws up.

  2. So, the only thing company needs to do is keep adding capacities (newer machines) and keep executing as it has been doing.
    There is no need of any drastic change in business model…

(Though one of the negatives is the high capex requirements for growth… it can result in temporary underperformance in short term profitability)

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Has the management shared any details/commentary on their business with Swiggy?

Thanks

Disc.: invested recently

What will be impact of adoption of IML packaging products by FMCG & other customers of RPPL?

Good question – some basic research shows that IML is superior to Thermoforming on every parameter:

BTW, RPPL is also using IML technology

Seeking management’s view on this trend will be important.

@gurjota – do you know their revenue split across the four product categories?

Disc.: invested

They seem to be kind of getting started with IML; at the same time they are increasing Thermoforming capacity as well.

They do have injection molding products but they yet to have IML that is “In-mold Lable”.

As per my view going for expansion as big as net block that too in other field is madness, they should have go slow with expansion of Olive Ecopack products like 30-40cr project, that would have given me some comfort.

If they had gone for IML capacity rather than expansion in Olive Ecopack, then I would have more bullish.

These are my views/concerns.

Disc: Not invested

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Thanks @kalpesh4430 – I probably need to read more before commenting with conviction but it looks like ‘In-mold labeling’ can be done in conjunction with Thermoforming, no?

https://www.plasticstoday.com/packaging/iml-thermoforming-reportedly-more-sustainable-injection-molding

Yes. but RPPL has not yet planned any of it? or maybe I’m not aware of it.

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I am seeing CareEdge rating, report shows not coperating, what does mean exactly, any issues in the company? Sorry if this is dumb question.

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Q1FY24:
• Proposed capacity addition in thermoforming 1,000 MTPA
• Developed 8 new products
• 79 new customers onboarded including 10 overseas customers. Added 8 new customers in IM segment and 15 customers in barrier packaging.
• Started Exports to South Africa; Total number of countries being served now 10. Company’s export revenue quadrupled on Y‐o‐Y basis.

CONCALL NOTES:
• Volumes up 16% yoy – Lower realizations on account of lower raw material prices – Inventory loss due to raw material price drop caused drop in ebitda margins – Prices are stable now – Profitability will improve during the year.

• Export revenues up 3.5x times – 10.1cr from 2.7cr yoy.

• Olive Ecopack – Commercial production by end of December – Fully recyclable Products will be used by QSR and delivery services – 200-220cr of revenue potential – to be scaled over 2-3 years – will look for 30-40% exports.

• Guidance: 285cr (+/- 5cr) revenues for FY24 – lower from earlier guidance of 300cr due to lower raw material prices impacting realizations. Volume guidance intact – Ebitda margins guidance maintained (14%, +/-1 %)

• Will consolidate operations for 1, 1.5 years and improve profitability taking advantage of operating leverage before going for further expansion – 320-330cr revenues can be achieved in FY25 with small capex of 3-5cr.

• 16cr advance given by customer to fund capex requirements to fulfill their demand of packaging products – Capex done last year.

• Raw material cost is generally 61-63%

• Tube laminates – currently scraped due to technical issues. Still it’s a promising product and company will look at it during next phase of capex.

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the stock has rallied in just three sessions

Any reason for huge upmove recently. There has been usual order updates from company.

Disc. Invested since lower levels

Q2FY24:
• Volume growth 17% yoy.

• Injection Moulding: In process of machine upgradation to enhance installed capacity.

• Developed 6 new products
15 new customers onboarded including 4 overseas customers.
Strong Customer retention with ~97% of revenue from repeat customers.

• Appointed Chief Marketing Officer.
• Company’s export revenue tripled on Y-o-Y basis to ₹15.32 Crores for H1FY24.
• Around 55-60% of the business is coming from dairy and beverages.

• Injection molding capacity expansion: It is in discussion phase as such. As and when it materializes, will let you know the exact numbers.

• Patents: One is a process patent which we have done for making the tube laminates, that’s a process patent which we are holding. The other is product packaging design patent which we are holding.

• Tube laminates: We are constantly evaluating this particular market so as and when we feel that the situation is correct to have a dedicated line for this particular segment, we will take a call for investing for a dedicated line for the tube lamination. At the moment, it is on halt.

• Over the period of 2-3 years, we expect it to at least go to 12 crores to 15 crores per quarter or at least Rs. 50crores- Rs. 60crores coming from export.

• In-Mold Label: In-Mold Label, we have commercially established the product and we have started manufacturing. We have received the initial trial orders from the customers and we will ramp up the production of IML products in coming quarters. So, that is the six products of what we have added in which that one of the products is Injection Molded product, Label products.

• Olive Ecopack: Rs. 100 crores- Rs. 110 crores revenue we can definitely look for next year. that number will be a break-even number.

• So, for next quarter, definitely, we’ll see the reduction in the Finance Cost.

• Customer advance for capex: It will be difficult to reveal the name of the customer but, yes, as I mentioned that few of the customers where we have almost monopolistic supply and as the customer is expanding their business, they wanted us also to increase the capacities and it helped us in increasing the capacities as we were doing a lot of investment and we needed that support and they accepted our request. That’s the only thing, I would say.

• In food packaging, since sustainable packaging still are not able to meet the functional requirement, we don’t see much entry of sustainable products entering into Food Packaging but there the more focus will be on to recyclability and using recycled materials. And in Food Service, the focus will be more on using sustainable products. And we would say, as a company we are well placed in both the sectors and so that will help us to achieve the growth in the next five years

• Capacity increase: we are working on increasing the capacities on the existing machines by doing some modifications and we have got very good results and probably in the next one month or so we should be able to announce that the increment in the installed capacity on these processes around 10%-15%.

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kindly through light on the following:

Inventory value has grown.
EPS has reduced significantly
Cash conversion cycle, working capital cycle and inventory days has increased.

a huge part of cashflow comes from proceed of borrowings. No such CWIP