@Rajesh_Singh Hello Sir, I am new to this thread.
I have observed that you have made an entry in Veer health care during May, May I ask for your thesis behind it? Is it because of its order acquisition from Apollo Pharmacy and other export orders from US?
Appreciate your prompt responses Sir.
The hypothesis was their presentation in Bharat connect however I have reviewed my portfolio to derisk and Veer is going out from portfolio. One risk I didnt factor was US FDA and challenges , it can do well in three years given ambition of management however I will exit it.
Half yearly review DYOD
Build investment mindset - Watch the business not the stock price, enter after research then sit tight for years unless something really material happens to alter the decision. Where are we spending time, in this era of weekly and monthly screenshots if one is glued to screen for the price and not looking at business mediocre returns will follow.
If stock is going to be 100x with business growth say Insolation has 1-Billion-dollar goal in three years with 10% PAT, then valuation at 100 PE will be 10 billion USD and after that also it will grow at furious pace as Solar is decadal megatrend then it doesnât matter where it is 20 % or even 50% down. Here is sample projection of Insolation without equity dilution , split or bonus , 500 plus bagger from my average buy price in 7 years and anyone who got IPO at 38 Rs it is already 100 bagger in just two yearsâŚ
| Year | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earning growth | 510% | 115% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | |
| EPS | 5 | 26 | 55 | 110 | 219 | 439 | 877 | 1579 |
| PE | 10 | 150 | 140 | 130 | 120 | 110 | 100 | 100 |
| Share price | 311 | 3825 | 7676 | 14255 | 26316 | 48246 | 87720 | 157896 |
I rarely come across people in my network who are not glued to price and doesnât panic when price goes down as they rarely look at business future. Large allocation in the early phase when high conviction in management, value, patience to let the winners run. Never interrupt compounding like you never lose great relations- a few can be 1000x also if one hold for many decades with foresight to see megatrends and competent management - not in a quarter or year and ignore all the noise be it macro factors or fluctuations.
| Stock | PAT CAGR for years | PE 5 years | Entry price | Avg now | Return by FY 26 | FY 30 or longer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insolation | 100% plus | 100+ | 140 | 311 | 40X | 500x hold longer |
| Bondada | 100% plus | 100+ | 30 | 59 | 40X | |
| Kore digital | 100% plus | 50+ | 220 | 485 | 40X | 100X |
| Sonalis Consumer | 100% plus | 50+ | 60 | 60 | 40X | 50X |
| Max India | 20% plus | 80+ | 80 | 147 | 5X | Permanent |
| Cosmic CRF | 100% plus | 50+ | 220 | 384 | 20X | 100X |
| K2 Infra | 80% plus | 50+ | 156 | 156 | 5X | 50X |
| Eco recycling | 100% plus | 100+ | 140 | 314 | 20X | 100x |
| Tejas | 50% plus | 60+ | 70 | 253 | 10X | TBD |
| SPML Infra | Turnaround | 50+ | 20 | 45 | 20X | TBD |
| Cellecor | 100% plus | 50+ | 25 | 29 | 10X | TBD |
| Vmarc | 100% plus | 30+ | 200 | 249 | 5X | Exit |
| AVP Infracon | 80% plus | 30+ | 150 | 160 | 5X | 50X |
| Srivari Spices | 100% plus | 50+ | 220 | 220 | 5X | 50X |
Investing requires very little action so if one is itching for action then pick any sport and if your adrenaline is high then pick some something adventurous here more action will lead to average to below average result.
I have proven wrong in the last six months to market will keep humbling.
Exits- Veer health- US FDA risk I had ignored and generally I have stayed out of pharma for this reason. It can do well but not worth the risk
Tech know green- Management keeps talking big of 8 billion USD market and hardly any growth , neither orders so have lost faith in them. I also exited Kamat hotels which was a trading bet as management looks like floundering on walking the talk.
Entry Srivari spices 100% CAGR, AVP infracon projection of 10x earning in next 3 to 4 years
Wise Charlie Munger who died this year said before his death âI could have done a lot better if I had been a little smarter, a little quicker ⌠I might have had multiple trillions instead of multiple billions." âHow do you get a great spouse; you deserve a great spouse.â What it means that for anything in life if you want great say great returns in investing then your perspective and actions have to deserving else mere aspiring will take you nowhere.
Ignore noise - Almost all have opinions and very less have depth and temperament needed for high returns. Many superstars and HNIs will learn basics of valuation that share price is function of earning and corporate governance. Blue chips and many large companies have posted disastrous results year after year, and many will vanish too. Many of them come and convey pompously about SMEs that something is wrong while many stocks in their portfolio like Tata Elxsi, LTTS, Asian Paints have given negative return in the last three years. Again, reminds of Buddha - Be your own light! One has to keep laser sharp focus on business growth and its potential, rest all is noise. Social media , and media in general is noise so be careful whom you listen to as very few have depth. We are lucky to be part of this time when it is century of India 4 to 40 US trillion then beyond in fact there is talk by K Subramanyam that it can be 55 trillion USD also by 2047 https://youtu.be/I_zJKxft4rw?si=y-5XSiIcIB2NWNgT
I listen to many YouTube videos and talks almost hundreds in a year while traveling, commuting, or walking. Invariably I go through management interview, guidance of all companies. Without guidance have stopped investing almost now. Let them be wrong but be bold and transparent enough to say
Utpal Seth on terminal value and holding long with differentiated insight - https://youtu.be/kWjHPwEcEIs?si=aPI_R69lxWXcJVYA
Gunavanth vaid on microcap investing https://youtu.be/RKnl9J2lyHA?si=PRTB9KM2Z07syOXu
Peter Lynch https://youtu.be/gH7vpd749NQ?si=QGQNsOOpGeJn2Ehp
Mohnish Pabrai https://youtu.be/SP6kKi2nMz4?si=MNpq1TVdOa7Ez1Jt
I follow many on twitter and most of them keep posting and at times I reply too but I donât feel the need to be active there. Out of all of them I admire @chiragdashj most. I will continue zero base budgeting in investing and if any stock at that time doesnât look great enough then will exit however this will happen yearly. It is not about money but quality of life as one of the wisest Charlie used to share - I wanted independence I overshot and got rich.
Risk management is very difficult as Howard Marks says âwhat we donât know say covid, 9 /11 great recession of 2007 and so onâŚ
He shared once âI tell my fatherâs story of the gambler who one day hears about a race with only one horse in it, so he bet the rent money. Halfway around the track the horse jumped over the fence and ran awayâ
We need to be lucky too. Good luck everyone.
Hi @Rajesh_Singh Sir, where can we access Sonalis quarterly update and information regarding its future goals ? I canât really find this anywhere.
They had investor call on this Sunday wherevtgey shared update. I ude screnner as tool to read about companies yiu can see its latest annual report, half yearly result but itd about future which is going to be very different
