Punjab Chemicals & Crop Protection Limited (PCCPL) A Clear Runway Ahead!

Punjab came up with very good sales growth of 33%, but margins were stressed due to RM inflation and higher power costs. Management remains confident of strong growth and are guiding for 1100-1150 cr. of sales in FY23, and 1500 cr. in FY24. My concall notes are below.

FY23Q2

  • Headwinds in business environment, have adopted flexible approach in product pricing (to increase market share) and are focusing on new geographies such as South America
  • Margins: pricing pressure, product mix, carry over of high cost inventory from earlier periods (mainly hydrazine hydrate). Energy, fuel (rice husk; gone up) and freight costs impact other expense. Will be able to pass on cost pressures by Q4 and revert to 14-15% EBITDA margin
  • Hydrazine hydrate prices have started tapering off
  • Power costs (60 cr. in FY22 vs 32/33 cr. for IPL/Bharat Rasayan): Products (herbicides) are more power intensive + due to farm law changes in last couple of years, availability of rice husk has become a challenge
  • Investing in renewing assets that are 30-40 years old (should have replacement capex of 30-40 cr. over 2-years)
  • Lalru: facing raw material problems resulting in lower production and delay in registration. Hope to come back to 70%+ utilization in Q3/Q4. Large part of CRAMS business comes from Lalru, and majority of expansion will also happen here
  • Derabassi: mature products, debottlenecking
  • Order book: has increased from 1500 cr. to 2500 cr.
  • Looking for a new site in Maharashtra or Gujarat and should finalize by end of FY23
  • Lot of customer visits happening from multiple geographies (Japan, Israel, etc.)
  • Phosphorus derivative: Faced pressure in this division due to pressure from Chinese suppliers. Have seen large margin drop, should see it come back to 16-18% next year
  • Have seen some slowdown in demand from domestic market
  • Agri segment has seen significant growth in South America
  • 15%+ volume growth. Maintain 1500cr. revenue by FY24
  • Thiocyclam: Full potential of this product has been delayed due to registration an should be realized in FY24
  • Singapore customer molecule (most likely prosulfocarb): Registration has been delayed and growth should come in FY24
  • Capex: 120-150 cr. over next 2 years
  • CRAMS: 65%; 40% from generic molecules + 25% from tech transfer of 2 molecules from Japanese customers + 1 more. Are either first or secondary supplier in CRAMS business. Have quarterly review on forex adjustements
  • FY23 sales will be 1100-1150 cr.
  • 60-65% CRAMS + 15% specialty chemicals + 15-20% intermediate & fine chemicals. On spot basis, sales are very low (maybe 5%)
  • 2 new products coming in agro + 1 in specialty chemical in FY24
  • Making intermediates for Israeli company specializing in fermentation space (most likely NextFerm Technologies). It’s a small high margin business

Disclosure: Invested (position size here, bought shares in last-30 days)

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