Portfolio updates

Hi, I had recommended 18 stocks in my first post on the blog. This is how they fared:

Tv18 up 4.73 pct

Amar raja up by 21.3 pct

Indus ind Down 1.2 pct

Yes bk up 18.3 pct

Eicher 1.73 pct

Mah satyam up 14.2 pct

Icici bk 3.2 pct

Bajaj fin 1.8 pct

Mah and fin 3.82 pct

Fin tech 11.43 pct

Mcx 5.9 pct

Wockhardt 4.33 pct

Den 2.6 pct

Hathway 0.2 pct

Kajaria 1.4 pct

Whirlpool 1.19 pct

In arshiya you wd have lost for sure as it was far beyond my capacity to see the black swan. After all I did see the tree trade zone which is a real asset and saw work on going with VW, Cisco, Bhel, Larsen etc. Interestingly even on glass door, employees were gaga on the company till september 2012. You wd recall my emphasis to diversify given the fact that investing today is quite unlike what it was5 years bk. if you had followed even an equal weight to my model portfolio, your scorecard wd read 15 advances, 1 flat in indusind,1 down in arshiya.

In between I also tweeted my interest in unitech at 32, which gave me an opportunist return of about 22 pct in the last month.

Please note that these are one month returns as my first post was around that time. I am not a trader neither claim to be one who knows technicals. I remain invested in scrips to make wealth not income.

Happy investing.

1 Like

I agree Vivek. I only compound. Own muthoot, don’t have any particular view on canfin. I don’t own or like cement. Never did since I began to invest. Neither metals. Have owned some stocks fairly long enough. I posted a return since I had started posting after a few of my friends including ayush prompted me to. Since u have referred to financials, hdfc bk, Jk bank are two favs up more than 15 times. So are some others. Point was only to guide some of you who keep asking me to update.

Then stocks I have recommended above. I also own cos like cera, Mayur, Atul auto, Wendt, Jk bank, city union bk etc. I still think digitization is a good bet although as a disclosure, I recommended tv18 at 19 bucks, den at 89 on my tweets. However am still invested and av not sold.

Hi Vivek,

I could not understand what something more to price movement means. From my perspective, the co is getting recognized for some changes that on the face of it look interesting. These include:

1). Credit rating improved last yearICRA revises Orbit Exports’ Long Term rating to LBBB- http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/icra-revises-orbit-exports-long-term-rating-to-lbbb-/428448/ via @bsindia

2). The movement to novelty fabrics is clearly increasing the profitability and reducing dependence on past business.http://www.indiantextilejournal.com/corporate/CUdetails.asp?id=3912

3). The co is undergoing capex given its new thrust, pl remember there was a management change in 2004 from where company essentially picked up

4). Per mgt, co is seeking listing on nse.

5). Per bse, co did an allotment very recently


6). Co announced a bonus of 1 for 2 due to improved financials, a factor that means liquidity may have improved

7). Per annual report, capacity of jacquard fabrics has already been doubled

8). Per annual report:

  1. During the year under Report, the Company has developed new products and designs which has enabled the Company to develop new markets and in catering the existing customers. The introduction of new products and designs has helped the Company to add new customers in different geographical regions and segments.

9). Co used to outsource some requirement for fabrics that is since reduced due to the acquisition of 12 jacquard shuttle less looms, source: annual report


Is there any competitor to Orbit exports offering the same range of products? What could be the moat for the co n the size of opportunity ? Overall the co seems quite attractive to me n I hv made an initial entry into the stock.

Also Safir any updates on Kajaria ? Ashirwad the main competitor of Astral has been taken over by a Belgian co so what could be it’s impact on Astral valuation? The price of Astral is coming down ever since.

Tv 18 has lived upto your expectation by its turnaround results ??

Vivek, each investor follows this own path. Somehow that’s why not all succeed and those who do include investors using diff theories based on risk, capital allocation, psychology etc. I don’t follow the theory of buying a stock just because its at a high or averaging down per the reasons given by you. There is bound to be a time when any stock wd be at a high and if it corrects there has to be a reason for hat too. I buy what I like and try to the best of my capabilities to make assumptions around that buy decision, which if right reward me well and if wrong cause me to contemplate an exit. I am generally adverse to any form of averaging down but again it’s a function of what I believe in. I do falter Nd it would be a lie to assum no one does but the question is I try to limit my errors and allow the winners to make more than for them. On orbit, I see nothing wrong in a new promoter putting in money twice at market rates. Knowing that was public one was capable of buying if one was to time the promoters.

Good to learn we belong to the same alma matter. Cheers.

Hi Vivek,

Thank you for nuts. One of the definitions in the investment world of a moat is also market dominance. Orbit has a 70 pct share in jacquard fabric exports. The migration to newer products including wedding bands, ribbons etc has to be seen again in light of comparative cost advantages to indie, currency benefits and the possibility of margin upmove including just by volumes. Also orbit kind of companies are not perpetual buy and hold stories. I like its current valuation and think its cheap. Till the business keeps growing faster than its value and there are no external pressures of debt or forex, I may continue to own it, even if it gives me 100 pct returns. iF. If not, I don’t see a significant downside which means in terms of portfolio allocation and risk management I may do well. Happy investing.

Vivek, ha ha…iPad corrected by response…thank you for inputs to nuts…: )

Hi Safir,

I am a subscriber to your blog and read about Orbit Exports. As i do my technical analysis of every stock I buy, would like to share it over here:

The stock has made a recent double top at 68 and broken out to 72. The stock now has resistance at 72,76 and 78. Thereafter it can touch 94 once again. The first support is at 68 and then 56. If it breaks 56 then one should move out of the stock as it will be trading below its bullish support line marked in blue.

The stock is is momentum and presently trading above 5 DEMA, 25 DEMA, 50 DEMA and 200 DEMA. This is also a bullish sign. One should try to buy on a pull back around 60 and add more around 56.

Safir, i surely like the way you pick your stocks. Silent admirer.

Thank you tony for your valuable revert and feedback. Much appreciated.

Hi Safir,

Need your feed back on the thread I have recently started on Importance of Cloning. Please do give your views on the subject. Would also like to share a book on Point and Figure Charting with you. Can you give me your email if you do not mind.

One thing that seemed to catch my eye is the Operating Cash Flows. They have not kept pace with the Operating Profit. Operating Profit/Operating Cash Flows have more or less been over 2.

Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 Mar'10 Mar'11 Mar'12
Operating Profit 2.88 4.07 3.2 7.06 14.37 17.15
Cash Flow from Operating -2.02 1.92 0.22 3.52 7.96 10.33

Operating Profit/Cash Flow from Operations
(1.43) 2.12 14.55 2.01 1.81 1.66

The above was in relation to Orbit Exports. The Cash Flow looked like a red flag. Need some guidance

All of our picks did well since my las post. Some updates:

Wockhardt saw huge buying at 1650 levels. The co continues with its turn around and is all set for a long haul.

Tv18 tied up with Disney for distribution of channels.

I liked the results of icici bk. Mcx and ft are awaiting commencement of trading.

The stocks that old be added include tv18, mah finance. I won’t recommend adding den given the way it’s shot up. Opp cost is better in tv18. As tweeted, I had added sun tv at 528 and the same did remarkably well and is now at a new 52 week high at 575 odd. In my pick of 23 cos in core and trading, arshiya was the only flop. Fortunately the rest 22 made up for its steep fall and overall portfolio remained up. I also did a partial profit booking of an old idea, ajanta pharma at 650, as tweeted. This stock had entered our portfolio at abt 200 bucks, exited at 700, re entree at 490 and now partially booked at 650. Our average cst for ajanta residual holding now stands at zero that s we have net receipts from sales plus residual qty.

With some profits also booked in den at 230 against an entry price of 85, the residual den holdings is now free of cost.

Bajaj fin is undergoing a rights issue at 1100, so the stock valuation stands adjusted as x rights. I recommend over subscription to rights.

Happy investing.

Thank you, Vivek. Orbit has moved abt 15 pct since my recommendation in a situation where most mid caps corrected. This is a 52 week high on the stock. I am waiting to see what kind of interim the co announces on 8th feb. and remain bullish on the co from a longer term perspective.

Safir Bhai,

Good signs of the impact of digitization rollout .PFB the link

With digitization expected to be completed by Dec 14,MSOs/DTH and broadcasters shall make the most.With the change in dynamics for this business the broadcasters shall really benefit and TV18 at current CMP. Safir bhai,this is a blockbuster pick with a 1-2 yr period.

Hi Safir,

Whats your take on Astral Poly, Kajaria ceramics and Hawkins post results?

Also have you recently entered Canfin Homes ? Whats your view on this n its latest results?

Hi Safir/ Vivek,

I was trying to understand the strategy of Buying a winning stock. Jesse Livermore employed that strategy too.

If the price increase has been smooth and steady then its a stock worth while looking at. However, if the jump is 20- 30% in a day or week then its a no no. One can also make an argument for the stock for reaching a 52 week high. It did not get there for no reason. The chances of it moving forward are also high because the market likes it.

One can always look at the list showing stocks making a new 52 week high. Get that list and start making an evaluation of the stocks before buying them.

Awaiting your feed back

I have sources this from the Economic Times