ValuePickr Forum

Portfolio : Feedback needed

Hi all,

i would like to share my portfolio and need your feedback.

Investing journey:
2007: Started in 2007 and i did all wrong things and the portfolio went down by 99%. i had couple of seasoned investors advising me , but ignored everything . i took personal loan and invested and concentrated on 5 infra stocks . Great lessons learnt and saw the brutal crash of 2008-10.

i was out of market and came back in 2014, invested in some IPOs , made some good money and exited.
i have read some investment books by Graham , Peter Lynch and also sourabh Mukherjee. i also read some books related to momentum investing .

Back to 2019, i returned to market and slowly started building the portfolio. i don’t invest lumpsum in one-go . It’s more of SIP portfolio. i have short list of stocks and invest every month in the stocks which come down a bit.

Goals:

  1. Aim to triple money (minimum) in 10 years, around 12% CAGR
  2. Expect portfolio to give good dividend after 10 years

Key Learnings:

  1. Buying good companies
  2. Be patient. example: Waited for quite long time for Ashok leyland to come below 50 and then bought.
  3. Never go for next TCS /bajaj finance
  4. slow and steady compounding. i prefer 10% revenue growth & 10% profit growth for 10 years rather than 15% growth for couple of years. Momentum stocks are simply not my cup of tea
  5. if i don’t understand, i don’t buy. example: pharma
  6. Rare selling. During 2007-10, i sold nothing. i just sat till portfolio came down 99%. so, this has been my strength and weakness. During past 1.5 years, i sold only bajaj finance as i never had 100% conviction. switched to Ashok leyland from Bajaj finance.

How do i buy?

  1. SIP every month. i deploy fresh funds (roughly 5% of portfolio value) every month and pick stocks which have come down a bit.
  2. i buy NCDs if they come to around 9% yield and prefer only government bonds like SBI bonds and PFC.
  3. even if prices have run up, i buy something from my stock list. New buys are determined by stock prices and hence it is becoming increasingly difficult to control portfolio allocation.

Other observations:

  1. Thought of buying IT, but the run-up was too fast. May buy on dips.
  2. Finance heavy portfolio. but i have no plans to add HDFC bank, CUB , Kotak in near future

please let me know your thoughts!

3 Likes

Few observations regarding portfolio:

  1. Most of them are high quality blue chips and I feel your returns expectation is decent.
  2. Finance(Including Insurance and NBFC) occupies nearly 40% of the portfolio. Any plan to trim it down or maintain the weightage to 40%?
    3.I dont see any IT,Pharma and specialty chemicals. I know these are hot sectors right now with some companies having rich valuations. You can look for good names with decent valuations there.
2 Likes

Thanks for the observations.
I am also quite worried about the high weightage to BFSI. i will not be deploying fresh funds to that bucket.
Regarding IT, i have TCS and HCL Tech in my watch list. waiting for dips.
I need to do some research on Pharma and specialty chemicals.

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with my limited knowledge ,I suggest we should stay away from following

  1. Capital Intensive Business

  2. Business to Business Companies ( exceptions TCS,Infosys)

  3. No. 2 players

I am a listener of sourabh mukherjee.

We should focus on retail businesses so that we can track it
We should go for essential products/services with Market Leader,Monopoly business having free cash flow

I am sharing my portfolio

PORTFOLIO
Instruments % of Total Portfolio
ASIANPAINT 0.26%
BAJFINANCE 1.38%
BRITANNIA 7.49%
CDSL 19.96%
HDFCLIFE 3.13%
HINDUNILVR 5.31%
IDFC 1.82%
IDFCFIRSTB 17.19%
INFY 4.34%
ITC 24.01%
LALPATHLAB 3.85%
PIDILITIND 0.18%
RELAXO 0.85%
TATACONSUM 0.72%
TCS 2.10%
MARICO 7.42%
1 Like

How and where to buy good NCD’s?

@Mahendra243 I have account with ICICI direct and i buy NCDs via them. i browse through the NCDs regularly and if something falls within my range, i buy them.
please note that volumes are extremely low. i would recommend to buy them only if you plan to keep it till maturity.
Also, the brokerage with icici direct for NCDs is 0.25% , so if the yield to maturity is 9.25%, your rate will be 9% for first year.

@sanjay192 Thanks for sharing your portfolio. Looks great.

2 Likes

Frankly speaking I should not have bought IDFC.I bought it on recommendations .After buying it ,I learned that It is holding IDFC first bank shares.The reason why am I holding it till now,is I bought it at low prices (may be without thinking or researching).

But ,one thing I want to share is that we should not invest in holding companies.And IDFC is a holding company.The reason is ,the holding companies have lots of businesses and profit from one business compensates the other business .Net-Net the profits are diluted.So the holding company do not get high premium from investors and hence less capital appreciation.

Now,another example is ITC.It is also a holding company.But why we are buying it ? Because,though it is a holding company,It has a single business (cigarette) which contributes 80% profit.Though its other businesses are contributing little profit,still they are not making losses (except Hotels in COVID).But think ,if ITC lists its businesses individually (Cigarette,FMCG,Hotels),then everyone will buy Cigarette and FMCG .No one will buy ITC and Hotels.So these will get less premium.

In ITC’s case,we don’t have the option to buy its good businesses like cigarette and FMCG separately alone.So we have no other option to buy the whole ITC.But in case of IDFC vs IDFC first bank ,if we have the option to buy IDFC first bank directly,then why would we buy IDFC?

Why don’t you go for discount brokers like Zerodha for buying NCDs? They charge zero brokerage.

I have invested in quite a number of NCDs of the two gold loan players (as a bet on the direction of gold price) and bought more from secondary market during the March lows. Recently Muthoot came with another issue which was subscribed (even the green shoe option) in two days flat. I think you should also look into AAA rated NCDs like Tata Capital, L&T Finance but yields will be low. Expecting 9% yields will be difficult now except maybe going down into STFC like players etc. Please be careful of bank perpetual bond since Yes Bank write-off has created a bad precedent that common shares were not written off but the AT1 bonds were.

Very sorry to be harsh but I think when I see posts like this where someone entered the market in 2007 and now in 2019, it reinforces my feeling of market top. Obviously you have learned from your past experiences and grown as an investor and have invested now in solid companies with discipline. I have been completely wrong in the last few months and have lost the upside by exiting most of my positions. I hope I am wrong and market have entered a different phase because of the low/negative interest rates worldwide.

All the best.

2 Likes

Bajaj Holdings is a counter example. The share had gone down to 1460 but is now hovering around Rs 3000. They own around 35% and 41.63% of Bajaj auto and Bajaj Finserv. Below is an extract from their FY1920 Annual Report.

BHIL’s largest unlisted equity investment is in National Stock Exchange (NSE), which continues
to perform well. In FY2020, BHIL invested in one more sustainable growth enterprise, Fab India,
given its positioning in the consumer space.
During the year, BHIL sold a part of its investments in ICICI Bank, Ujjivan, Bharti Infratel, CARE
Ratings, Berger Paints, Narayan Hrudayalaya and South Indian Bank.
Key stocks which BHIL added during the market corrections were Britannia Industries, Ultratech
Cement, IndusInd Bank, L & T Technology Services, Godrej Agrovet, Maruti and Minda Industries.
BHIL also added to its existing investment in long held holdings - HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries,
L&T, Infosys, Marico and Tech Mahindra, where it expects positive long-term outcomes.
BHIL also brought two new high-quality names into the portfolio – Housing Development Finance
Corporation Ltd. and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
BHIL’s other equities portfolio generated a negative return of 16.8% for FY2020, better than
the Sensex in a declining market. BHIL’s other equities portfolio now has much more balanced
weight in financials (31% of other equities portfolio at cost) as a proxy for growth in the domestic
economy. In FY2020, investments in ICICI Bank, Berger Paints, Dr. Lal Pathlabs, Reliance Industries,
Ultratech Cement and Narayan Hrudayalaya outperformed the Sensex, while United Phosphorous,
IndusInd Bank, CONCOR, CARE Ratings, L&T, Maruti and Minda Industries underperformed.

You can look at their latest results here.

The promoters have been increasing their stake on dips. We can see them buying whenever share price goes below 2600 or even a bit higher. They recently acquired 27% of Maharashtra Scooters Ltd from Western Maharasthra Development Corp. Ltd.

You can get look through earnings of both Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Finserv at very roughly 50% discount from the market price by investing in BHIL. Isn’t that a very good margin of safety? I understand that this could turn out to be a value trap but as we can see the market price of the shares have doubled from 1460 to 3000 and is supported well by their holdings.

There are other holding companies that are selling at discounts that have yielded 100% returns in 1-2 years.

Thanks for your insights . It was helpful.
I am SIP investor who invests every month in stocks or bonds or other assets , irrespective of market going up or down.
The process of existing and entering again is tedious and difficult . I don’t want to time the market. In past 2 years I never held cash awaiting something . But at same time , I avoid putting money into a stock if there is crazy valuation ( Asian paints now ).
Regarding NCD”s, Tata , L& T bonds rarely come to 9% yield . If they come , I will surely jump in. I always prefer NCDs which mature 3-5 years from now. I stay away from private banks & NBFC NCDs with exemption of Shriram transport finance. Being from TN, I understand the trust and brand that management have built over several decades. Even there I don’t want to add much .
Regarding Gold company NCDs for 3-5 years , it is a bit tricky.
For me , the idea is to get above FD return with very very little risk.
If market falls , i will be very happy . :grinning: we are either in a situation like 2009 where markets topped 20k and then fell for years or we are in late 2002 when the big bull run started .

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any reason for giving that % of contribution, share your logic too.

1 Like

Do you mean portfolio allocation % ?
I simply buy stocks from my list every month and i don’t decide allocation to any stock. If it is moving sideways and if the Valuation is comfortable, I keep adding it every month. That’s how ITC ended up as #2 holding .
Assuming 5% dividend yield and 7% growth for 10 years , ITC fits my return of 12% .

I wanted to add Titan but I cannot convince myself of valuations.
Going forward I will not add HDFC bank and ITC and I will not cross 10% limit for other stocks .

ASIANPAINT
Market Leader/Zero Debt Company/Free cash flow/Organic Growth opportunity.Handsome Margins.
sourabh mukherjee mentioned that Asiuan Paints have no distributors in between the retailers and them.I will check whether this is a fact or not.If yes,then I wil increse my investments gradually

I will listen to the analyst conference calls of the company

BAJFINANCE
An excellent NBFC,which focusces on small loans like mobile phones,Electronics goods etc.They also focus on giving personal loans to professionals who are not salaried but have excellent cash flows (ex-Doctors,Cas etc.)

BRITANNIA
Daily Essential product/Market Leader/Having brand loyalty i.e. if I want to buy “Britannia Marie Gold” at the Groceeries store and the shop keeper offers me anothger brand,theny I will go another store and to buy the biscuit.This makes the company to create entry barrier and the can company has the pricing power to maintain its margins. But in airlines company I will go to who is offering lowest price because brand loyalty is not there.

I checked the profit loss and balance sheets every quarter.If I find any concern there ,I carefully listens the analyst conference calls to check whether Mr. Varun Berry is answering that or not.Example-In FY21-Q2 result ,I found that short term borrowings are increased significantly than the previous year.But ,In the conf call Mr. Varun Berry mentioned that ,the raw materials prices were decreased so they bought the full year’s raw materials with short term borrowing.

CDSL
Huge Organic Growth opportunities are there/Zero Debt Company/Low Market Cap/Entry Barrier is there/Only one competitor/Lots of free cash flow.

I checked the conference calls.The management is acting like Govt organisations.They are avoiding questions on competition,eating growth opportunities etc.For checking future growth of CDSL, I checked what demat account the new broker PayTM Money is offering.And I found that by default they are offering CDSL’s demat account

Mr. Nehal Vora is playing very conservatively.Personally I think CDSL is not using technology efficiently like ZERODHA to eat the market oppertunities. Check its platforms like Easi ,Easiest etc.From the apps you can get a light picture of Management’s vision.I am not saying to involve in competition with NSDL.What am I saying is that ,if only 4% market share is eaten and rest is left,then why not going aggressively.Indirectly Mr. Nithin kamath of ZERODHA has lots of contribution in the growth of CDSL.

Still I am unable to understand what % of its total revenue and margin CDSL earns whe we sell shares.

HDFCLIFE
Good Management/Organic Growth is there/Shifting of Market share from LIC is also there.

HINDUNILVR
Market Leader/Zero Debt Company/Free cash flow/The company will remain there for next 100 years/Brand Loyalty is there to create entry barriers.

IDFC
Bought it on recommendation and holding it as I bought it on low prices

IDFCFIRSTB
The bank is becoming retail oriented.And is running on the vision of Mr. V. Vaidyanathan. But still investing at present means “investing in hope”

I am checking the quarterly results of the since last 1 year.The bank is posting profits since last 2 quartes .But what I am tracking that what Mr. V. Vaidyanathan is saying ,is he doing that or not ? And I am satisfied with that. For checking more about the bank ,I opened an account with it.I checked its app/net banking ,it is super easy to use.It means who ever is handling the technology segment in the company has the vision about ,what customer want from apps.In comparison with other Pvt banks platforms,Federal banks platform is pathetic .IDFC first banks platform is way better than Federal Bank and Bandhan’s.I went to electronics retailers shops and saw IDFC first bank’s advertisement s there ,but not found Federal bank,Bandhan Bank,SBI Kotak there.It means IDFC bank is working with brand marketing with consumer electronics like HDFC bank.

INFY
Market Leader/Tons of free cash flow

ITC
Buying from Rs.300 level.I am still holding it as a victim of behavioural finace crisis.Otherwise no reason to hold.

Lots of problems with the company.I mean simple fundamental to think ,who burns free cash flow to make hotels,as if net profit from hotels will double every 2 year.One good talented man created the business in Itc,and the management is eating it.I visited the kirana stores to inquire about the ITC’s products.They told that ITC’s products are awesome and customer demand it.But the company is not providing the quantity what they demand.It means ITC has distribution problems in its FMCG business.ITC has lots of heads of business i.e. Cigarettee business head,Dairy and biscuit Head,Personal care product head etc etc. It is more interested in creating cadres than business. ITC’s management is not focused at all.
.
LALPATHLAB
.Market Leader/Low Debt /Free Cash flow /Shifting of market share from unorganized to organized sector/organic growth/brand loyalty/entry barrier

I am checking the quarterly results and conf calls since last 2 quarters and satisfied with the vision and honesty of the management.

PIDILITIND
Market Leader/Low Debt /Free Cash flow / organic growth/brand loyalty/entry barrier/Zero competition

RELAXO
Market Leader/ organic growth/brand loyalty/entry barrier/Shifting of market share from unorganized to organized sector

TATACONSUM
Added to keep track of the business

TCS
Market Leader/Tons of free cash flow

MARICO
Market leader in its core products like Hair oils,Sunflower oil etc.Settled business in growing economies like Bangladesh,Vietnam etc/Zero debt/ Company is fully focused and excellent capital allocator. Management is transparent and honest.

checking the conf calls and satisfied with the strategies,vision and honesty of Mr. Sugat Gupta.

1 Like

On ITC i am not convinced as this company is just burning customer’s money and hard cash!!

sir plz share your view.

Since I am unable to understand B2B companies,So In am using Index index funds to invest in them

  • HDFC Nifty 50 index Fund

  • Motilal Oswal NASDAQ FOF

The downside of this strategy is that u might SIP urself into a value trap - the business is hit first, mgmt realizes it next and retail investor catches it last.

So capping the position size is a hedge that any retail investor should have.

The risk of value trap is there . Hence I have decided not to cross 10% for any stock and I always try to stick to leaders ( except cyclicals) . Also companies don’t go down in a day (except May be banks). It will be a structural breakdown and a long down cycle . I do read all concall reports every quarter and do some ground level checks . Still , one will end up with some value traps . I think we cannot avoid that.

Regarding ITC,Whatever bear case I assume for 10 years , I don’t see myself loosing much in ITC.

Indian insurance companies are 1/20 of size of Chinese ones and even if we reach half of today’s China in 20 years , the Indian companies should do 10x. The question is only about survival and longevity. We will see some downcycle in insurance and I will load up these companies then .

ITC if you read their annual report of current year and last year, you will notice that in hotel business they are losing lot of cash, still they are continuing with it.

Yes sir. Mistakenly I mentioned “customer’s money” .I was meaning “share holder’s money”