Point & Figure Charting

Stock Opportunities Techno-Funda Picks
381

COROMANDEL FERTILIZERS:

http://chartink.com/stocks/coromandel.html

The stock has all the positives for it currently.It is close to the 200 day EMA of 207. It has broken this level, and higher prices are possible. The RSI is in over bought territory which is an indication that some pull back is possible. But with strong markets anything is possible.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/COROMANDEL.html

The stock gave a BUY at 195 and made a double top at 208. Next resistance levels are 210-15, 225.

It has support at 195 and then 165.

Tony

382

AEGIS LOGISTICS

Currently the stock is in O column but on the BUY signal. The stock made a double top at 132 and then reversed. It now has support at 126-118, 116-108. On the up side it has resistance at 132-136 and then at 170.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/aegischem.html

The RSI is at 65, CCI at 204 and Momentum at 19.90. All are positives for the stock. The important level to watch is 145 where it will touch the 200 day EMA. If it crosses this, then 170 is a possible price.

http://chartink.com/stocks/aegischem.html

Hope it does happen this time.

Tony

383

VOLATILITY INDEX

I have been saying repeatedly in this column to BUY FEAR AND SELL CONFIDENCE. So how does one BUY FEAR. For this we have a friend in the Volatility Index called India VIX.

VIX as it is generally known, is an indicator which runs contrarian to the Stock markets. It also tells us when markets have reached extreme levels of OVER BOUGHT or OVER SOLD LEVELS. Once these levels are reached one can expect a reversal.

As has been my experience, the majority of the crowd hardly ever gets it right. Smart traders use this index to bet against the crowd.

So, how does one use the VIX ? It is very simple. Just wait patiently and watch for the index to peak above 30, and at the first signs of reversal, BUY shares. As the VIX keeps falling the markets will begin to rise. It’s as simple as that.

There is an old saying " When the VIX is high, its time to BUY". This is true because at this stage, the fear in the markets are at its peak. And when the crowd sells, the prices fall. That is the time you do your BARGAIN BUYING. A recent example will clear the air.

http://chartink.com/stocks/indiavix.html

Just last week the markets fell 650 points, and the India VIX touched 36. If you had bought shares at this time, you would be laughing your way to the bank today. In the chart above you can see that on 31st July, the 5 day EMA cut the 25 and 50 day EMA from below. The VIX started rising and reached the highest at 36.

Other examples in the world markets can be corroborated with the CBOE VIX.

When 9/11 attacks took place, the CBOE VIX was 49.35

Asian currency crisis in Oct. 1997 VIX was 48.64

European crisis May 2010 VIX was 48.20

US debt rating down grade August 2011 VIX was 48 and the list goes on.

So my dear friends, make India VIX your best friend and make money of your life time.

Tony

384

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/aegischem.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/aegischem.html

http://chartink.com/stocks/aegischem.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/aegischem.html

No need to apologize. Thanks a million for your analysis . Continue the good work

385

Hi Tony

Like many faithfuls,I had been holding Mayur and Poly Medicure for more than a year now. It has been testing my patience and am almost on the verge of dumping them. But in the last view days I feel there is some rise in volume and price. I am no expert, but is that the case ? Is it about to breakout or I am wrong in my analysis. What would be levels to watch?

386

Raj,

Mayur Uniquoters:

There is a book closure coming on 26th September after which the shares will be split into face value of Rs.5/- each. Hence there has been action in the price from 400 to 460.

Let see the PnF charts:

The stock has made a double top at 460. If it breaks this level, then the next resistance is at 490 and 510. On the flip side it has support at 420-400 regions. This chart will change subsequent to the split in face value. So we will have to see it once again.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/MAYURUNIQ.html

On the candle sticks charts one can see that the stock is trading above its 200 day EMA which is a good sign of a strong stock. The RSI is at 68 CCI at 329 and Momentum at 23. All are in positive territory.

http://chartink.com/stocks/mayuruniq.html

This is a very good stock fundamentally too. If one holds it for the long term, I am sure you will benefit. The best is yet to come. My views may be biased as I too have this stock in my portfolio.

POLY MEDICURE:

This stock has been taking support around its 200 day EMA of 237. It keeps bouncing off this support. The short term momentum is up. It is currently meeting resistance at its 50 day EMA of 253. If it breaks this level then one can look for some upward price movements.

http://chartink.com/stocks/polymed.html

On the PnF charts the stock has resistance at 260,270-75 and 285. On the down side it has support at 225-220-200 levels. Once it trades above 260 levels,it will once again be a strong stock.

Tony

387

Dear Tony

I have been holding Natco Pharma and Jayshree Tea in my portfolio. Can you give your valuable TA on these stocks

Ashwin

388

Hello Tony

I have been following your thread and is greatly impressed. I would like your opinion on two of my stocks. Dhanuka Agritech and Granules

Thanks

Rahul

389

Hello Ashwin,

This time no delays from my side.

NATCO PHARMA:

This is a very strong stock trading continuously above its Bullish Support Line (blue) since December 2011.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/natcopharm.html

Currently it is in the X column on a SELL Signal. The stock has resistance at 640 and support at 540 and 490. Such stocks are a BUY on dips.

http://chartink.com/stocks/natcopharm.html

On the candle sticks chart, the stock is trading below its 25 day EMA. Support comes in at 557 its 50 day EMA. RSI is 49 and not over bought, CCI is -24.5, Momentum is 31.55. Once CCI comes in positive territory, this stock will pick up and change its intermediate down trend. Cross above 596 will ensure a big move up.

Tony

390

JAYSHREE TEA:

http://chartink.com/stocks/jaysreetea.html

The RSI is at 46, CCI at 46 and Momentum 1.3. All are in positive territory. So short term trend is positive. The stock has resistance at 95 its 200 day EMA. From here on it should make a good move up. Support lies at 84 its 25 day EMA.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/JAYSREETEA.html

The stock is in X column and on a BUY signal. The next resistance is at 90 where it will make a triple top, 92 a double top and then 98-102. It has support at 82 and 74.

Tony

391

Hi Tony,

What do charts say about Amara raja now?

Thanks!

392

Hello Rahul,

DHANUKA AGRITECH:

The stock is in the X column but on a SELL signal. Since March 2013 it has been trading above the Bullish Support Line showing that the stock is marginally strong. It made a double top at 138. Resistance lies at 140-150-160. Support comes in at 132-130-128 levels.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/dhanuka.html

On the candle stick charts, RSI is at 46, CCI at -42 and Momentum at 2.7. This does not give any indications about the short term. Support lies at 129 at 200 day EMA. If it falls below this level, then more selling pressure can come. Resistance is at 140 which is the 50 day EMA

Tony

393

GRANULES:

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/granules.html

The stock is trading above the Bullish Support Line. Recently made a triple top at 150. Above this the stock can go still higher to nearly 185 levels. Support lies at 140-136-130-120.

http://chartink.com/stocks/granules.html

All short term indicators are in positive territory, however the RSI is in over bought region. A mild pull back can happen. If the stock manages to break 150 then 185 is not ruled out. Another positive is that the 5 day EMA has cut all the other EMA’s from below. This indicates bullishness in the stock.

Tony

394

RAMESH,

AMARA RAJA BATTERIES:

The stock has once again become very strong after moving above 250 levels and started trading above the Bullish Support Line. It gave a BUY signal at 265 and then made double top at 285, quadruple top at 290 and then zoomed to 320. It now has support at 295-285-260. It has resistance at 320.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/AMARAJABAT.html

On the candle sticks you will notice that around 28th August the stocks 5 day EMA cut the 25 and 50 day EMA from below and around 6th September its 200 day EMA. Thereafter the stock gained momentum and zoomed all the way to 320. The RSI is at 78 and hence is over bought territory. The CCI is correcting at 161 and this tells a minor pull back is in the offing. The momentum is at 58. All in all a bullish stock. Wait for a pull back and buy on dips.

http://chartink.com/stocks/amarajabat.html

Tony

395

BULLISH PER CENT:

I had told you all that I am working on the Bullish Percent Charts which are so important to gauge the market. Now I have added two more percent charts. One is for the short term while the other is for the long term.

PERCENT OF 10:

Here 10 stands for 10 weeks which is 50 days. This tells us the short term trend.

PERCENT OF 30:

Here 30 stands for 30 weeks which is 150 days. This tells us the long term trend.

Please see in the attached chart and how the Bullish Percent has risen to 68 which tells us that 68% of the stocks on the BSE Sensex 100 on a BUY SIGNAL.

Similarly, the Percent of 10 shows a reading of 56% of stocks on a BUY SIGNAL.

The Percent of 30 shows a reading of 36% of the stocks on a BUY SIGNAL.

Another common factor to watch is that all the charts are showing positive signs and BULLISH PERCENT is just about to enter the over bought region of 70. From here on one must be alert and watch for first signs of change in the Bullish Percent.

Tony

BULL-charts.xlsx (25.2 KB)

396

Dear Tony

My comment on PNF:

1.I have observed for about ten stocks that when RSI is below 30% and that time CCI and Momentum may be negative but if slope is positive then we get better value. If we wait for CCI and Momentum to be positive , by that time stock has gone up ( some times significantly). Please clarify my observation.

2). I have also observed that either CCI or momentum gives signal much ahead that stock is worth entering now when slopes turn positive( numeric value may be still negative). So one can start watching stock when they turn to positive slope , simultaneously watch the CMP of stock and take decision to buy SIP way.

Request for your comment.

Thanks

Jashavant

397

Hello Dr. Patel,

Your observation is correct. If you are a long term investor then this strategy holds good. When the RSI reaches levels of 30 or below, one can presume that the stock is over sold and start buying in small quantities. It does not mean the stock cannot reach lower levels, but the risk/reward ratio improves from here on. Also there is a certainty of a bounce back. For traders it is better to wait for short term indicators to move into positive territory. You will notice that 80% of the price rise is made in 20% of the time. Rest of the time the stock just keeps hovering. Usually when the stock rises above 200 day EMA, there is a big jump in price and vice versa.

A note of caution.These indicators should be read in conjunction with other indicators which I keep mentioning repeatedly. For example, just recently i had mentioned stocks in the banking sector, which along with the sector were highly over sold. Today, on CNBC you must have heard Sudarshan Sukhani mentioning a BUY on PSU banks. What has really changed from then to now. Nothing! except the sentiments.

You can also look at good investment opportunities when the CCI is in extreme negative territory. If the fundamentals of the stock are good then you are certain to get a Bargain price at these levels if you are a long term investor.

Tony

398

NIFTY CHARTS:

It is interesting to read charts. To make things easy I have kept the 50 day and 150 day EMA. Now let us analyse the chart:

http://chartink.com/stocks/NIFTY.html

Notice that on 23rd July, when the CCI cut the red line from above at 100, Nifty was trading near its highest point around 6047. After CCI started falling, see the huge fall in the Nifty right upto 5100 levels. Again when CCI cut the red line from below on 6th Sept., Nifty opened at 5617 and went on to touch 5957 today, just in a matter of 10 days. Now the CCI line is showing a downward slope inching towards the red line once again.Today, Nifty has started showing signs of a fall. Let us watch the CCI closely from hereon.

Keep studying these phenomenons repeatedly, till you become an adept at it. See the same chart for previous months and you will read the same story.

As home work , one can read the PnF chart too.

Tony

399

The above statement stresses the importance of technical analysis working well in conjunction with fundamental analysis… If we have done our homework in analysing a company in details in relation to its attractiveness based on fundamentals, and if Mr Market offers us a chance to buy it at throwaway prices, as indicated by extreme oversold readings, it makes sense to latch on to the stock, disregarding the fear surrounding such circumstances.

1 Like
400

Hitesh,

I fully agree with you and that is exactly what i am doing. Do your fundamental analysis, keep a list of BUYS ready, and as you rightly said, when markets give you an opportunity, go and BUY with full conviction.

Ajanta was a great find on this blog. If you had only combined technical analysis with fundamentals, one would have had excellent returns by now. So is Astral, Atul Auto, Mayur Uniquoters. All these stocks have given excellent returns. This I can say from my own experience. The recent money spinners have been Shriram Transport, Yes Bank.

Watch India VIX once again.

Tony