thanks Tony,
with u & Hemant around things are getting EASY TO GET
Rgds
On Wednesday, I had written about Ajanta Pharma making a double top at 920. Today it passed that level and gave a BUY signal touching 940. Lets wait with baited breath to see if a new high is being made once again.
Tony
Appreciate your inputs as always Tony!!
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/SHILPAMED.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/SHILPAMED.html
http://chartink.com/stocks/shilpamed.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/shilpamed.html
Rajarshi,
ASTRAL POLY:
Akash at chartinks who maintains these charts has been very helpful. On requests he keeps giving updates. Thanks to him, i can give you my view on Astral.
After going ex split lets look at the chart:
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ASTRAL.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ASTRAL.html
The stock has given a BUY signal at 230. The next resistance levels are 240 and 250. On the lower side, it finds support at 195, 180 and 165. Its a strong stock and a BUY on dips.
http://chartink.com/stocks/astral.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/astral.html
All the short term oscillators are in positive territory. Now the stock should close above 222, which is the 50 day EMA. If that happens, then we can look for new highs.
Tony
Tony,
Whatâs the exact price that you bought Ajanta at? What is your approach on Kaveri and Astral as they too have come down from 1700 and 600 levels respectively?
Regards,
Rajarshi
While writing on Piramal Enterprises I had explained how important it is to watch the 5 day EMA cutting the 25 day EMA from below. This gives a good break out.
Lets see the chart of Nifty today:
http://chartink.com/stocks/NIFTY.html
See what happened to Nifty. At 5513 there is an intersection of the 5 and 25 day EMA cutting from below. Nifty touched a high of of 5689 and closed at 5680.
This is the time to educate yourselves and apply the principles being explained to stocks which you may hold.
Now the next resistance for Nifty is at 5705 where it will cross the 50 day EMA. Thereafter there is a double top it will make at 5750 on the PnF charts. Watch out for both these levels. If 5750 is crossed, then there are chances of Nifty touching 6000 again.
Those who bought FEAR can then begin selling CONFIDENCE.
Tony
Hi Tony,
After getting the inspiration from your posts in this thread I have been regularly calculating Bullish Percent Index and use this as an indicator to invest. However I feel we need to fine tune the Contrarian strategy of investing in sectors where the BPI< 20%. As of now I am only taking this case. Since last one month the BPI of BANK INDEX has been below 20%. And since last two days the BPI changed to 100% again.
My question is can we come up with some strategy which will help us to identify at what time should we enter a set of a stocks within this sector (BPI<20%) so that we enter at a good deal.
This is very important during Volatile market since we get a brief time before which the Bullish trend turns into bearish and vice versa but the return is very huge during this phase.
Hi Tony,
Impressed with your earlier analysis, tried to read up a bit and have a couple of questions about Page. As I understand, the stock is currently in the O coloumn after it gave a BUY signalat 4300.One question is that the boxes were 100Rs apart and now the box between 3800 and 4000 is labeled as 3970. Please explain how to read the exact value for bullish support line and the double bottom?
Let say it made a double bottom at 3970, AND this is also on the bullish support line.Doesnât it mean that the stock should be expected to bounce from here?
However, if it falls below 3970, it will give a SELL signal. The support will be at 3500 where it made a double top in April.
I think I made a mistake by missing the last X coloumn of MayâŚthe double top was actually 4400 and hence buy signal at 4500.
signalat 4300.One line.Doesnât
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html
Hi Tony
I am very impressed with your analysis. Can u give TA for Karur Vysya Bank, Karnataka Bank, Coramondel and Aegis Logistics
Thanks
Ashwin
I took Karur as an exercise. Request Tony to verify/add to my observation for my learning.
After the high of 570 in Jan, Karur has been making lower highs and lower lows. It broke the double bottom of 320 and then formed a triple bottom at 311 and gave a SELL signal at 300. The PnF chart looks weak and I could not see where it will take the next support. It is also trading below 30,50,150, 200day moving averages.
Anuprem,
Let me congratulate for having put pen to paper. This is the only way to learn. As far as Bullish Percent Index is concerned, it is not the only indicator. Like I have said earlier, one has to look at the Market, Sector, Trend, Momentum et al.
Coming to Bullish Percent Index (BPI), one has to get ready whenever the BPI comes below 30. This is the zone which will tell you that the Sector or Market is getting oversold. The moment the BPI moves from O column to X column on the charts, one has to take positions of BUYING stocks in the particular sector. Whenever the BPI crosses 70 on the upside, be vigilant to get ready to SELL as the Market or Sector is over bought. The moment the BPI moves to O column one should begin to book profits.
Having said that, one has to look at the RSI, CCI and Momentum which tell you the short term momentum of the market or sector or stock. Also see if the stock is close to the Bullish Support Line (BSL) or the Bearish Resistance Line (BRL). There can be a bounce back from the BSL or a break down from the BRL.
One strategy to adopt is, to start buying in lots. Whenever the BPI is below 30, start buying the stock you wish, in small lots. Example, you wish to buy 100 shares. The first 10% fall in price, buy 10 shares, when the fall is 15% buy 15 shares and so on. This will get you the best average price. As the fall increases, increase the quantity you wish to BUY and apply the same formula inversely.
Hope this helps you Anuprem.
Tony
BPI< 20%. As of now I am only taking this case. Since last one month the BPI of BANK INDEX has been below 20%. And since last two days the BPI changed to 100% again.
My question is can we come up with some strategy which will help us to identify at what time should we enter a set of a stocks within this sector (BPI<20%) so that we enter at a good deal.
This is very important during Volatile market since we get a brief time before which the Bullish trend turns into bearish and vice versa but the return is very huge during this phase.
Rohit,
You have understood most part of my analysis which is good. The 3970 reading is the closing price of the stock. On the chart the box is at 3900. This is only to help you understand at what price the stock closed.
As far as the Bullish Support Line is concerned, the stock can bounce back depending on the circumstances surrounding the stock. It usually does, however in a bearish market, these levels get broken and the stock can fall below the BSL. If it does happen, then the stock will become weak. The stock will give a SELL signal at 3800. It then has support at 3700 (earlier double bottom), 3600 ( earlier triple top), 3500 (earlier double top) and 3200 ( earlier double bottom)
Hope my explanation is clear. Happy that you are asking such queries.
Tony
signalat 4300.One line.Doesnât
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html
Ashwin Patel,
I am replying to your query of Karur Vysya Bank here so that both can benefit from my analysis.
Rohit, do this analysis often and I am sure you will keep improving.
KARUR VYSYA BANK:
This stock has been consistently making Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms. Signs of a weak stock. See what happened after the stock fell below 440, below Bullish Support Line. It crashed to 300.
Currently, the stock has given a SELL signal at 300 and no lower levels are available on the charts. It made a triple bottom at 310.
For the stock to move into X column, it has to touch 330. Thereafter it has resistance at 350 (earlier double top), 370 ( earlier triple bottom), and 420 (earlier double bottom).
http://chartink.com/stocks/karurvysya.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/karurvysya.html
The stock is trading above 5 day EMA but below all other EMAâs.
The RSI is positive, but CCI and Momentum are negative. Lets hope the CCI touches 0 where it will turn positive. This will show the direction of the stock very clearly.
Tony
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your help. I understood the BSL part but I donât understand how 3700 is a double bottom. Can you please explain?
Rohit
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html
Rohit,
As the stock is in Sell and O column, if it falls to 3700, it will once again make a double bottom because there is an O on the left hand side. Sorry, I should not have mentioned earlier double bottom. It will now create a double bottom if it falls to 3700. Errors and Omissions are accepted.
Tony
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your help. I understood the BSL part but I donât understand how 3700 is a double bottom. Can you please explain?
Rohit
Tony
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/pageind.html
Hi Tony, Thanks for the explanation. 
I missed it
Hi Tony
This has reference to your recent comment/analysis on Page. Today Page has RSI=17.53( overbought condition), CCI is 83 negative but it seems slope is positive, same for Momentum which is negative 208 but seems to be slope is positive, can we say if slope is positive then all three parameters are positing for stock to add?
Jashavant
Hello Dr. Patel,
To make things simple let me explain to you:
RSI
There are 3 lines- red colour (over bought), blue, green ( over sold).
When RSI touches 70 or above, it is in overbought territory and there is a likely hood of a correction or pull back. Sometimes it can touch 80 or more.
Green line is where RSI touches 30. Anything below 30 or more is oversold and a correction or pull back can be expected.
Page is in oversold area and not overbought.
CCI:
You have rightly said CCI is negative. As mentioned earlier in my posts, this indicator gives the first signals of changes in momentum. The moment CCI touches 100 and crosses it from below, the price of a stock shoots up.
On the reverse when the CCI touches 100 from above, get ready for a fall in the stock price.
On 1st April when CCI touched 100 from below,Page traded at 3340. Thereafter on 8th April it touched 3780. When CCI touched 100 from above, Page traded at 3531 on 22nd April 2013.
Momentum:
Any reading above O is positive and vice versa. On 16th July, 2013, Momentum was at 500 on positive side. Today it is negative 208. This shows momentum is negative. See the continuous fall from 500 to 208 which is downward sloping. Donât see short term minor changes.
Hope my explanation is clear
Tony
By taking the common road followed by the masses, most investors are doomed to failure.
Tony
Ashwin,
First of all my apologies. It really skipped my mind that I had pending queries from you.
KARNATAKA BANK:
http://chartink.com/stocks/ktkbank.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/ktkbank.html
All the short term momentum indicators are in positive territory. RSI is very close to over bought region. Other than this, its a positive for the stock. The stock has resistance at 91 which is the 50 D EMA. If it crosses this level, one can expect a higher price.
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/KTKBANK.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/KTKBANK.html
The stock gave a BUY signal at 82. Next resistance is at 104-06, 116-120. On the lower side it finds support at 82,80-78, 72-70 levels.
Tony