Tony,
I’ve repeatedly heard about CCI from your side as one of the indicators for initiating a buy…Pardon me if my question is very stupid but my question is what does this CCI means and where can one look for it and keep a track on it ??? Again I am a beginner in TA so your explanations will be of great help to me. .
Regards
Sandip
Sandip,
It is not a stupid question. It is stupid to not ask and feign knowledge. For your benefit and the benefit of our readers, here is the link to CCI. Internet is our best friend these days, so make good use of it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZQgsgDnLyU
Tony
COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX (INDEX)
Here is one more video showing how to use the CCI.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBo90HlCjJk
Tony
BANK SECTOR
I want you all to read the table carefully, especially the Banking Sector. From ZERO to HERO. On 30th August 2013, the Bullish Percent reading was at 0. As on 17th September, 2013 it is 93. Meaning 93% of the stocks in this sector have given a BUY signal. Yes Bank which touched a low of 225 is today at 390. How many of you have benefited from this?
The lesson- BUY FEAR and SELL CONFIDENCE. Now i am selling confidence. Thank you YES BANK. Thank you Rajan, Thank you Ben. Will see you again when you are fearful.
Tony
The purpose of this update is for all readers to look at each sector closely and, watch the changes that are taking place in each sector. Look at the SECTOR ROTATION OR CHURNING taking place. Beaten down sectors like METALS are back in the reckoning. FMCG AND PHARMAwhich were the darlings of the markets are seeing a SELL. These sectors are suddenly out of fashion.
The pundits on TV and the MEDIA play a big role in this. However for a VALUE INVESTOR, beaten down sectors will throw up the biggest gainers. For example, Metals was a totally beaten down sector showing reading of 0 on 6th August, and on 30 August it is showing a reading of 73. Do your own analysis and draw your own conclusions. Markets have a mind of their own. Do not follow the herd but have a mind of your own to be successful in the stock markets.
In my previous post below, I had written that FMCG reading was showing 100, only 2 stocks were in BUY signal. See what has happened to this sector. Down to 30 from 100. Buying opportunities will emerge in this sector. Watch what has happened to ITC. Lot of froth was built up and now profit booking emerged. These examples are just to help you in your journey.
What lesson do I learn from this exercise? Be a CONTRARIAN AND YOU WILL BEAT THE MARKET
PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME.
| DATE | BSE SENSEX | BSE AUTO | BANKEX | CON DURA | CAP GOOD | FMCG | METALS | PHARMA | REALTY |
| 30/8 | 35 | 30 | 0 | 40 | 32 | 30 | 73 | 53 | 9 |
| 30/7 | 38 | 30 | 14 | 30 | 9 | 100 | 9 | 53 | 18 |
Looking forward to hear from you all soon.
Tony
UPDATE AS ON 2ND AUGUST 2013
BULLISH PERCENT
| DATE | BSE SENSEX | BSE AUTO | BANKEX | CON. DURA | CAP GOOD | FMCG | METALS | PHARMA | REALTY |
| 06/08 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 100 | 0 | 47 | 18 |
| 30/07 | 38 | 30 | 14 | 30 | 9 | 100 | 9 | 53 | 18 |
NOTE:
Although the Bullish Percent of FMCG shows a reading of 100 all stocks except 2 are showing BUY Signals and are in the X column. All others are in the O column, indicating more sellers than buyers.
| DATE | BSE SENSEX | BSE AUTO |
BANKEX | CON. DURABLE | CAP GOODS | FMCG | METALS | HEALTH CARE | REALTY |
| 30/7 | 38 | 30 | 14 | 30 | 9 | 100 | 9 | 53 | 18 |
| 16/7 | 48 | 20 | 29 | 20 | 36 | 80 | 27 | 71 | 36 |
| 5/7 | 39 | 20 | 29 | 10 | 36 | 70 | 9 | 59 | 27 |
| Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 | Col 4 | Col 5 | Col 6 | Col 7 | Col 8 | Col 9 | BSE AUTO | BANKEX | CON. DURABLES | CAPITAL GOODS | FMCG | METALS | HEALTH CARE | REALTY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 20 | 29 | 10 | 36 | 70 | 9 | 59 | 27 |
Hi Tony,
Astral has ben forming a base in range of 198-210 levels. Recently I have observed that the volumes in delivery have picked up. The market has appreciated consireably but astral has not moved along. I feel that astral is in for a decent upmove in the range of 15-20%.
Regards,
Rajarshi
Hello Rajarshi,
Your observations are correct. Instead of being silent, I would be happy if you write often so that others can benefit too.
http://chartink.com/stocks/astral.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/astral.html
On the candle stick charts, one can observe that it has taken strong support at 150 EMA. Now it has to break the 50 EMA of 219,to begin its upward move. All other indicators are positive.
On PnF charts, the stock is now in the X column though on a SELL signal. It has resistance at 235-240-250. One can see that it has been making higher tops and higher bottoms recently. A good sign.
Tony
Hemantji, Hiteshji, Tonyji and other technical analysts,
I have a basic query on technicals. Should one look at stock charts adjusted for dividends or without adjusting for dividends?
If the dividend amount is large, then the price falls substantially on ex-dividend. This sometimes causes break-down or sell signal on charts. Are these valid signals? If dividend is adjusted, then there is no break-down or sell signal. For example, if we look at Accelya chart below, it shows that trend is broken but if I adjust Rs.40/share dividend, then there is no break-down. Chartlink does not seem to have a facility to adjust dividend.
RsKm,
This is an excellent question. What you say is absolutely right. The charts should be adjusted to reflect ex dividend or ex split. Personally I follow up with Chartink to get the charts adjusted for ex split and ex bonus. Will try to find out if this is possible too. Since it is a free site you cannot expect too much. However, Akash at Chartinks has been very helpful and has incorporated a lot of changes. If all readers write to me, then perhaps I can impress on him to make more changes. Will try my best to improve them.
Tony
Hi Tony,
How is Ajanta looking technically? Your all time high target has been met now.
Time to sell? Can it correct 20% from here?
Jatin,
Your thoughts match mine. Yesterday, the stock has done all i wanted and more. In fact i could not believe that it has touched a high of 793 in such a short time. Now is the time to take some profits of the table. Will do it in small doses. Anything above 780 is good.
Tony
BULLISH PERCENT
The Sensex 100 Bullish percent has reached 80 and clearly in OVER BOUGHT zone. Start making your list of SELL from now on.
The Percent of 10 (50 days) is also at 73 and the The Percent of 30 (150 days) is at 48.
Personally I have started selling and will wait patiently for the INIDA VIX to touch and cross above 30 where i start buying once again.
The BANKEX BULLISH PERCENT is at 100. From zero on 6th August to 100 on 20th September,2013. Time to book profits in this sector too.
Tony
Tony,
Thanks for your reply on my query on dividend adjustment. Do you know of any charting software (only EOD) that adjusts dividend. I have spider software but it has a strange (and incorrect) way of adjusting dividends. (splits, rights and bonus adjustements are correctly done). It makes clsoing price of the day before ex-dividend date equal to ex-div date closing price. E.g. Accelya closed at 636.20 the day before ex-div. On ex-div date it closed at 590.35 and dividend was Rs.40. On div-adj chart, it shows prev day price also at 590.35. Actually it should be 636.20-40= 596.20. All previous prices are then multiplied by div-adj closing price/actual closing price on the day before ex-date. The process of adjusting all previous prices are right but the ratio is distorted due to the way adjustment is made on the day before ex-date.
I require a software that adjusts price of the day before ex-date by reducing dividend amount from the price on that day.
In this case, the non-adjusted chart shows decline of 45.85 and ajusted chart shows no price change. Actually, the adjusted chart price should show a decline of 5.85.
Hi Tony
What would be good level to slowly start buying Accelya? I had been eyeing it for a while. But it was running up so fast that it was scary
Raj
Hello RsKm,
I don’t have any idea of any other software available. I am sticking to what I have in hand and making the best use of it. I tried to ask the help of chartink. He too is not able to help.
Tony
Hello Raj,
On the candle stick charts, the CCI is in negative territory and RSI is about to reach oversold levels. Keep a close watch from now on.
http://chartink.com/stocks/accelya.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/accelya.html
It has strong support at 465 levels and 438. Both are 150 days and 200 days EMA.
On PnF charts, it has support at 570 although it has given a SELL signal at this level. Next support comes in at 530-520 levels.
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ACCELYA.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ACCELYA.html
You can start accumulation at 530 levels onwards if the stock corrects from present levels.
Tony
Tony,
Both Astral and Kaveri have been forming bases at 208-215 and 1460-1480 levels. Both are excellent fundamentally and they have not apprecaited along with the market. A breakout is bound to happen sooner than later.
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
Regards,
Rajarshi
Rajarshi,
I was out of town last week and hence could not reply earlier.
ASTRAL:
http://chartink.com/stocks/astral.html Link: http://chartink.com/stocks/astral.html
On the candle stick chart, the stock is finding resistance at the 50 day EMA at 217. Once it takes out this resistance then we can expect a move to 235-250 range. Watch out for the CCI which is at -17. Once this turns positive, then we should get a good up move.
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ASTRAL.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ASTRAL.html
On the Point and Figure chart, the stock has been making higher tops and higher bottoms. Presently in the X column and on a BUY signal which are all good signs. Key resistance now is at 235-240-250. It has support at 200-195-180.
KAVERI SEED:
The stock has made a triple bottom at 1450 which has been lending key support to the stock.The stock is presently in the O column. If it breaks this level then the next support is only at 1260. It will also trade below the Bullish Support Line which will signal weakness in the stock.
http://chartink.com/pointfigure/kscl.html Link: http://chartink.com/pointfigure/kscl.html
On the candle stick charts, the RSI is in oversold territory and so is the CCI at -87. The 150 day EMA is at 1422 where it has been taking support. If it breaks this, then the next support zone is at 1403 at the 200 day EMA. If it falls below this then chances are of the stock touching 1260. There are two crucial levels to watch as mentioned above. Patience will be the key over here.
The Nifty is in over bought zone and I expect a correction. I own Astral Poly and waiting to buy Kaveri Seed at lower levels, so my views may be biased to that extent.
Tony
Hi Tony,
I am looking at the charts of Kaveri. I have some questions.
On PnF charts, the stock is on a BUY signal and trading near its triple bottom of 1450. It touched to 1440 today but closed at 1457. This level of 1450 should act as a support. On candle stick chart, it is below the 10 and 21 moving averages. The stock is oversold, at RSI of 8.73. 200day simple moving average is 1403. So even if it goes below 1450, the 200 DMA of 1403 should act as a strong support.
Now on PnF charts it will give a sell signal at 1400. So its slightly contradictory.
But anyway, i feel that its is highly oversold and should bounce back. Please let me know your opinion.
Thanks!
Hi Rohit,
What you have stated as per PnF charts is right. Since it is in the O column it indicates that there are more sellers than buyers. On the RSI it is clearly oversold, but it does not mean that the stock cannot fall further. It is true that stocks find support at the 200 day EMA, but there is no guarantee that it will hold. On many occasions you will have noticed stocks breaking this support and falling at alarming speed. So it is good to wait and watch especially in a falling market.
Today i read in the Economic Times in the commodities section the following:
“HC SOWS DISCONTENT IN BT COTTON FIELDS”. Bombay High Court upholds Maharasthra Seed Act which regulates prices of BT cotton seeds in the state and delivers a blow to industry.
Will this news impact the price??
**Tony
**
Hi Tony,
Could you please share your views on Balrampur Chini and Renuka sugar please?
Regards,
Niranjan
