Poddar Developers - An affordable housing story

Stock Opportunities Untested - but worth a good look
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Anyone attended AGM today?

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Please find attached the financial model on Poddar Developers.

Poddar_Financial model_v1.xlsx (18.6 KB)

I have tried to make earnings cycle smoothed, I have focused on earnings and revenue over a cycle.

The model has been made conservative by keeping margin of safety in mind. Have also put explanatory bullets around the model to clarify it better.

Feel free to propose any further improvements. Happy to refine it further. @hitesh2710 @ayushmit

Discl: Invested

4 Likes
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Hi Vivek
You’ve accurately captured the sq footage per project and the projected revenue.
One issue you’ve overlooked is that the realizations from Chembur and Goregaon are Rs20000 per sq feet and not Rs5000 per sq feet. These projects are city projects and I am taking current prevailing rates there.
If you factor these in then the profit run rate over the cycle increases dramatically to approximately Rs80 crore per year.

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I understand, you are correct. I had put in 5000 per square feet to increase margin of safety as I have mentioned in the commnet as well. Also, there was some industrial area portion for Goregaon which might not yield high realizations but the point is well taken.

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Good work with the model Vivek. It’s a good starting point to assess the potential this company offers in terms of its project pipeline.

As per AR 2016, p. 31 -

'The Company was unable to launch new projects due to regulatory issues, beyond our control, which affected the launch of several new projects – these projects are now expected to be launched in Q3 and Q4 of 2016-2017.

There was a PIL against the KDMC which halted all projects in the KDMC for a year and has only recently been lifted.’

It would be helpful to know which particular projects are they talking about for launch in Q3 & Q4.
Also, the expected revenue recognition from the same in FY 17 & FY 18.

Thanks.

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Basically the Kalyan projects were stuck due to this verdict. One of which Poddar Aspire got an exception. In total they are planning to launch 11 projects in next 1-2 years. If there are no operational hurdles it would be an great achievement for the company if they finish them.

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Hi Vivek,

Thanks for sharing your model. There’s one thing I wanted more clarity on - Your excel sheet shows the saleable area from their Badlapur ext project as 11.8 lac Sft, whereas the company’s latest AR shows the beneficial saleable area as 27.7 Lac Sft. At the going rate of 3500 bucks / Sft, this translates into a total revenue of 968 Crs, spread over the period that the company would take to execute this project. Could you check on the same and clarify? Thanks.

Poddar upcoming projects.PNG1144×614 59.4 KB

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I have made conservative estimate based on historical projects equating 1 acre of land area results into 50,000 sq ft saleable area. If company can create saleable area as mentioned above it is an upside. You will see in the model that I have tried to build margin of safety wherever possible. Thanks.

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excellent point on calibrating land area to saleable area

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Q2 Results out…
http://poddarhousing.com/files/FY%202016-17%20Q2%20Un-Audited%20Financials.pdf

Consolidated net profit for Q2 is 71.01 lakhs as compared to Q1 208.01 lakhs.
Consolidated net profit for Q2 FY16-17 is 71.01 lakhs as compared to Q2 FY15-16 is 582.29 lakhs

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It is very difficult to calculate FCF especially for valuation purpose. I went through various real estate companies they eventually need lot of money to keep growing at very fast face then eventually in slow down valuation sinks .You can also see as sales have slowed down poddar is diluted equity planning to raise more captial same with ashiana. Not sure why prof bakshi is getting into this .He is just putting money on jockey Rajat Poddar . It is certain that company will grow rapidly but how about FCF and how it will be funded .

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good work , i was trying to see how to calculate cash left for owners but it gets little complex as we dont know how to estimate for capex (Land ).

Earnings will also be lumpy depending upon revenue recognition.

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Any opinion on this news - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0THo0ty7eZ4

Disc - Invested.

2 Likes
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This will be a dent on thier brand name, As Rohit poddar seems to be a honest individual he might be able to sail through.Could be an oppurtunity if the promoter comes out clean and assuming in the meanwhile this would lead to pricewise correction.

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FY-17 Results are out…Poor show continues…

http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/d52b0bda-14c6-43a7-bbe1-c08713218782.pdf

Consolidated Numbers:-

QoQ: Total Income:9.73cr Vs 16.23cr, PAT: (-1.29) cr vs 1.9cr
YoY: Total Income 9.73cr Vs 64.07cr, PAT: (-1.29) cr vs 3.19cr

Total Yr:- Total Income 53.89cr vs 145.14cr, PAT: 3.25cr vs 16.7 cr

EPS:- 5.15 vs 26.36

Inventory increased to 175 cr from 125 cr previous year.

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Link to the report gives 404.
Correct link http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/79dad43f-2077-4d60-a840-dedf1beb022e.pdf

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Does anyone have Annual report 2017 for poddar housing?
I am not able to find out on BSE and website.

Thanks in advance.
Vinay

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PoddarDeveloperLimited.pdf (1.2 MB)

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Anyone attend the AGM ?

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Something happened to the counter today + 20%. Saw their MoM of AGM, but nothing out of the way except “loan to equity” resolution. Is there anything that I missed, I’m wondering.

Disc: only tracking position