If size of company is no constraint, I feel Shriram transport seems good buy at 2 time book value.
Also, I feel talbros auto is another small cap which deserves attention. you can go through thread on this forum
Disc: Invested in Shriram transport. Talbros still under study for investment
Thank you for your opinion.
I am looking for high quality businesses at reasonable valuation which can provide me steady compounding. Also, I like to take a concentrated position. I am not sure if Talbros Auto fits that criteria.
Shriram Transport looks like a good buy, but I am not sure if I can take a concentrated position in it, lets say over 15% of portfolio. Also, the NPAs are a concern.
I am willing to compromise on returns, anything over 12-14% annually is acceptable with a 5 year horizon and low volatility.
I would suggest, please go through Talbros thread. In my view, business doesnât seem that great as of now, however they are shifting towards value added products which is gonna give them more pricing power in future. On management front, its minority shareholder friendly with clean track record and consistent dividend player.
Also, we are getting Shriram transport is at 2 times book value coz of NPA issue, else it would be valued higher. I believe whenever big player takes on un-organised market, consolidation happens and it favours big player. Shriram transport has been taking market share and still huge untapped market lies ahead, so 15% CAGR seems feasible, though volatility is anybodyâs guess.
Here is the latest portfolio, any comments will be really helpful.
I am looking to add some other sectors in the near future, to diversify a bit more. May be add 3 other stocks and cap individual stock at 15%.
Vikas, thanks for your support. Your ideas are on my watch list and I am studying them right now.
Thatâs the latest composition after deploying cash.
Introduced Automotive Axles, a cyclical bet on CV recovery. The earnings have zoomed in last 2 quarters however stock price has not moved in last 1.5 years.
VST Tillers is a long term bet. Recent uptick in Tractor sales after one year led me to take a position.
Hi Sushil,
May I know the rationale behind investment in VST Tillers?
I know that itâs a high quality business. But given the subdued rural demand, even the big players like M&M are suffering. Please enlighten me on this.
VSTT has done major capex in the last few years, and capacities ready to capture a rebound in Tractor/Tillers sales. They can almost double up production volume without spending another rupee on capacity.
Company aggressively launching new products and as per con-call they have been gaining market share in both tractors and tillers
The market for tillers is highly under-penetrated, high nos of small size farms in India. What is lacking is the proper communication with farmers and sales efforts. With renewed focus on marketing I believe VSTT can accelerate its revenues.
Even in a base case scenario, I am expecting the revenues/profits to keep compounding at 15-20%âŚand the valuations look lucrative for even a base case growth projection.
I am new to Investments in equity.
I am learning the fundamentals of investing.I believe in long term investments.
Thoughts behind my portfolio
Yes Bank
First Stocks I bought,Now I am not convinced much with this.Just holding this because its my first stock .
Lloyd Electric and Engineering
The first Stock I bought after a thought research.Stock looks undervalued to me.
There are few concerns as well :-
Its overseas acquisitions havenât paid yet (Having high hope from them)
High Debt levels
Manapuram Finance
Its available below its book value.
They have done recent acquisition to expand there business.
They are focused on generating revenue from non gold load business
Aries Agro
Stock Trading below book value
Market leader in Micro nutrients
A good sales network
Looked at few historic data and found that stock took a hit because of bad monsoon ,but bounced back with good monsoon.Riding on this and praying to Rain God.
Basant Agro
Havenât done much research .
Patel Airtemp
They have a continuous growth story.
Tracking Mazda ltd,Camphor and Allied,ADF Foods
You are hijacking my thread! 
Patelâs Airtemp is the only stock that I am tracking from your list. The last time I checked they had a good order book providing revenue visibility. Their export initiatives have worked well and they have been able to bag large orders.
However, the major driver for them is the CAPEX cycle in the domestic economy. It is anyoneâs guess when that is going to revive.
I feel the valuations are reasonable which provides comfort from downside perspective. However, note that Patelâs Airtemp has always traded at reasonable valuations. I believe a re-rating can happen an year or two later once the CAPEX cycle revives and the business increases in operations size.
Albeit, the management is clean and it has a long track record of good profitability. Makes sense to add on declines and hold over a few years until the re-rating happens.
Disclosure: No Holdings, Not looking to add
Hi Sushil, how does one calculate Weighted Average Holding (in years)?
Please find attached a small excel tool which will help you calculate the Weighted Average Holding (in years)
If fellow Valupickrs find any error, do let me know.
Thanks
Holding Period Calculator.xlsx (11.9 KB)
Thanks Sushil. It made sense.
I think multiplying the Weighted Average cell (eg F5) by Years Held (cell D5) is double counting, because the Weight (E5) is already a product of Nos. (C5) and Years Held (D5).
Also, wouldnât it be better to use the value of the transaction (rather than no. of shares) to determine the weight?
@sushil86 Haha.I thought its a portfolio thread for everyone.
And thanks for your feedback on patel airtemp.
1 - I see your point. Let me explain to you my view.
We need to give higher weight-age for larger holdings AND longer holdings. Hence, the weight has to depend on both (holding period * nos. of stocks)
We use the Year Held (D5) twice because âYear Heldâ plays dual role. It partially decides the weight + it is also the target factor that we are looking to sum by weights.
2 - I have refrained from using market value or transaction value, as price movement can skew the calculations. Imagine you buy 1 share at Rs 10 and next week it becomes Rs 100. Will you allocate 10x less weight to the stock forever, just because you bought it at 10x lower price?
I am also brainstorming on this since you asked me the reasoning behind the weights. So please feel free to give your views.
I made a mistake in point 1, your are right. It is indeed double counting, my logic is flawed.
Attached updated calculation.
Holding Period Calculator.xlsx (10.0 KB)
Sushil
I guess its just a matter of preference on which weight to use. No. of shares isnt incorrect, per se. Since we are calculating the holding period, it might be ok to use either.
Just that, in the final returns calculation, the amount invested and for how long it is invested are the crucial parameters. Therefore, for consistency purpose, using amount invested to find out the average holding period makes sense. Weights would be the same in both the calculations.
But, this was a new concept for me and I will incorporate it for my portfolio. Thanks for this.
One more thing where this helps is to better understand XIRR. (I use XIRR to calculate stock or portfolio returns). Average holding period gives the right perspective. I can now say that my portfolio (or stock) generated x% XIRR with weighted average holding period of y years (here i would prefer to use the amount invested as the weight).
