@Sid_Mathew - I thought the dep change was unwarranted esp considering SFN designs change and so tooling etc. might have to change accordingly so shifting to SLM didnt sound right. For hoses and braids perhaps this is OK but doing it in this quarter didnt make sense. If they wanted to shift, they could have done it long back when business was hose heavy. Also, it made Q2 look better than otherwise (The absurd thing is Q2 was phenomenal even without this adjustment, so why do it?). The business is doing very well and will continue to do well. I felt this was done just to support the valuation considering market turmoil (which is understandable)
@narenarora - I continue to own Venus and currently the position is under water for me. I bought a little to avg down at 1300 but I dont have enough courage in this market to size it up. I worry that this stock may remain deep value for a prolonged period of time just because it is competing with businesses whose promoters would do anything to support stock price - go on TV, give aggressive guidance, do consistent calls and ppts and investor meets etc. Here these guys don’t even want to do a PPT every quarter, leave along do a concall. For someone like me who likes to overanalyse things, there isn’t enough material to chew on and its only my fault. Sometimes it makes me feel they deserve the valuation they get though. Its like making 20 off 45 balls in a t20 (just being candid here)
I think we have done enough navel gazing on AI and other market related stuff. I have always enjoyed myself most when researching companies in depth. Here is a continuation of my research on Yash.
This is one business which has become noticeably stronger during this period as more data came in. Not because of anything they did during this period in specific, but because this information wasn’t clear to me then. Its more a collection of facts I have gathered over time that I am putting in one place.
I wanted to deeply understand why this quarter numbers were a surprise to me and where the stellar growth came from and if its a one off or if its sustainable.
This is how RIP vs OIP mix has played out in terms of units over last 3 years.
| Period | RIP units | RIP % | OIP units | OIP % | Other units | Other % | Total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | 3,425 | 60% | ~2,250 | 39% | ~80 | 1% | 5,752 |
| H1 FY26 | ~1,550 (est.) | 53% | ~1,100 (est.) | 37% | ~300 | 10% | 2,950 |
| H2 FY26 | ~2,200 | 51% | ~1,900 | 44% | ~220 | 5% | ~4,320 |
| FY26 | ~3,750 | 52% | ~3,000 | 41% | ~520 | 7% | 7,272 |
| H1 FY27 | ~2,175 | 54% | ~1,575 | 39% | ~250 | 6% | ~4,000 |
In terms of units, RIP % hasn’t gone up in volume as compared to FY26. Its just up from 52% to 54%. This is how it looks, in terms of value
| Period | RIP value | RIP % | OIP value | OIP % | Other value | Other % | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | 123.1 | 82% | 16.5 | 11% | 10.5 | 7% | 150.1 |
| H1 FY26 | 84.7 | 85% | 9.0 | 9% | 6.0 | 6% | 99.6 |
| H2 FY26 | 110.5 | 81.5% | 14.5 | 10.7% | 10.5 | 7.8% | 135.5 |
| FY26 | 195.1 | 83% | 23.5 | 10% | 16.5 | 7% | 235.1 |
| H1 FY27 | 167.3 | 86% | 17.5 | 9% | 9.7 | 5% | 194.5 |
H1 FY27 RIP numbers are almost same as H2 FY26 in terms of absolute number of RIP bushings (2175 vs 2200). Of course these aren’t comparable halves, considering H2 is heavier in volume but doing it here just to understand value drivers. RIP value between these two halves is wide - 167.3 Cr vs 110.5 Cr! That’s a 50% growth which has come solely from value growth. It should also be clear that OIP value % has remained ~10% over last 2 yrs. The management has mentioned that OIP value in exports is 2x domestic, so when the brownfield expansion completes, OIP margins will improve a bit but its overall contribution to revenue would continue to remain small.
This is the revenue per bushing and how it has moved (values in lakhs/bushing)
| Period | Blended | RIP | OIP | RIP ÷ OIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | 2.61 | 3.59 | 0.73 | 4.9x |
| H1 FY26 | 3.38 | 5.46 | 0.81 | 6.7x |
| H2 FY26 | 3.14 | 5.02 | 0.77 | 6.6x |
| FY26 | 3.23 | 5.20 | 0.78 | 6.6x |
| H1 FY27 | 4.86 | 7.69 | 1.11 | 6.9x |
The crazy thing is value has gone up from 3.23 lakhs/bushing in FY26 to 4.86 lakhs/bushing for blended realisation that is mostly driven by RIP going up from 5.20 lakhs to 7.69 lakhs per bushing which is what is driving the crazy numbers. YoY of course, there is volume growth of 40% as well which isn’t anything to frown at. The thing to note is that these are long-term contracts and the price are locked in 12-18 months ahead so the values we have seen in H1 were already last year’s prices. Most likely, the prices of orders booked in H1 FY26 should be way higher. Let me supplement that with some data.
I wanted to understand if this 7.70 lakhs for RIP bushing makes sense to start with. Yash makes bushings in 3 kV classes mainly - 245 kV, 145 kV and ≤ 72.5 kV. In FY25, 28% of units were 245 kV. In FY26 as well 27% of 245 kV class (950 units in FY25 and 1000 units in FY26 as per AR). The rest is an even split between the other two classes (~36% each). 145 kV sells at about 60% of the 245 kV price.
Doing some back of the envelope math based on these assumptions, this. iswhat we end up with
| FY25 | FY26 | H1 FY27 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied 245 kV RIP price | ~₹6–6.5 L | ~₹8–10 L | ~₹12–15 L |
| Implied 145 kV RIP price | ~₹3.5–4 L | ~₹5–6 L | ~₹7–9 L |
All this is still going by just the information given by the company with no verification. Realisation has gone up within RIP at roughly similar proportion across kV classes. Based on tenders in GeM portal
| Tender | Price per bushing (GeM, likely incl. GST) | Approx. ex-GST | Yash’s H1 FY27 implied price vs this |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 kV 1250A ×38, Yash L1 (May-25) | ₹21.6 L | ~₹18 L | 20–35% below |
| 245 kV 2000A ×18, BHEL (Jul-26): MIM L1 / Yash L2 | ₹26.5 L / ₹29.8 L | ~₹22–25 L | 40–50% below |
| 145 kV RIP/RIS ×40, Yash L1 (Apr-26) | ₹14.75 L | ~₹12.5 L | 30–45% below |
Even assuming these include GST, the prices of 245 kV even in May ‘25 tender is 18 lakhs and more recent Jul ‘26 tender is 25 lakhs (both Yash bids). So the company implied prices that are driving numbers in H1 is at 12-15 L RIP prices for 245 kV while the tenders more recent imply prices almost double this number (which is what might contribute to numbers around same time next year). One thing to note though is that these tenders are for replacement demand and are low volume and so have higher prices but the general trend is definitely reliable. Also volume discount might account for 30-35% discount between last year’s tender price and this year’s H1 realisation as per calc. What looks for certain though is that this higher realisation trend is here for another year or two (and hence the management’s claim that this is a seller’s market) and the 730 Cr order book consists of 555 Cr of orders booked in H1 which are likely at much higher prices than the old order book. The blended realisation should keep inching upwards even from here over the next year. This is a very bold claim, so please do verify all this very carefully and do not rely on this.
Other thing to note is that though 245 kV is 28% of RIP share, it is very likely 50-55% of RIP share by value. Higher the kV class, disproportionately higher the revenue contribution. A 420 kV bushing as per GeM bidding by Hitachi energy runs about 40 lakhs - so even a 100 bushing supply of this kV class adds 40 Cr to revenue (seriously!) which can again disproportionately move the needle for Yash.
Currently yash makes upto 245 kV bushings. The market size for this range is about 50% of bushings sold in India. 245 kV itself is about 25% of this by value. 420 kV and 765/800 kV make a bulk of the rest. In this Yash is targeting the 420 kV which should easily be another 20% of the market by value.
Also, I wanted to understand where these bushings are used. In the last post I mentioned 7 bushings per transformer. This is how they split across transformers by kV class.
| Transformer | Bushings per unit | Value per set | Top-voltage share of units | Top-voltage share of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400/220/33 kV interconnecting transformer | 3× 420, 3× 245, 1× 72.5 neutral, 3× 52 tertiary | ~₹170 L | 30% | ~71% (245 kV ~26%) |
| 220/132 kV interconnecting transformer | 3× 245, 3× 145, 1× 72.5, 2× 52 | ~₹73 L | 33% | ~62% (145 kV ~33%) |
| 220/33 kV renewable pooling | 3× 245, 1× neutral (+ LV) | ~₹47 L | 75% | ~95% |
| 132/33 kV state network | 3× 145, 1× neutral (+ LV) | ~₹26 L | 75% | ~91% |
| 765/400/33 kV (single-phase) | 1× 800, 1× 420, 1× neutral, 2× 52 | 800 kV price not public | 20% | 800 kV dominates |
As you can see, though Yash doesn’t make the 420 kV bushing yet, it is already making money from the 400 kV transformer market because it still needs 3x245 kV and 1x72.5 kV bushing which they cater to. The high voltage bushing take up a disproportionate share of bushing value in each transformer as well. So moving up to 420 kV opens them up to 71% of value in 400 kV class transformer which is 1.2 Cr out of the 1.7 Cr! This is another big growth driver and as per latest call, they already have orders for 420 kV bushings and will be shipping them in Q4 from the new greenfield facility.
So based on all this, these are some stuff to look out for
- Existing customers approve plant and their product which should be happening in current quarter. This means that anything over the 9000-10000 units/yr capacity in Halol can go from new facility at Jarod for these customers/products.
- Brownfield expansion at Halol for OIP to cater to export markets. This can fetch 2x prices for OIP (US market likely).
- Own cores in already approved products upto 245 kV RIP bushings for domestic market. This type-testing should again happen this quarter and approvals may take another quarter but the management says invoicing can happen in Q4. If that happens, that can be a HUGE trigger as its one of the biggest margin levers as I have gone in depth in last post
- RIP exports with own cores - this can happen mid next year
- 420 kV with imported cores - this is where they have orders in hand and I have gone in detail earlier in this post. This should happen in Q4 itself and this is where even 100 bushings can contribute 40 Cr to topline (H1 topline is 195 Cr)
- 420 kV approvals with POWERGRID and other utilities - this is at least 2 yrs out I would think and this will be the big volume driver in 2 yrs time
- 420 kV with own cores - I would think this is at least FY29
- GE Vernova closure of Trench acquisition. Once this happens, it consolidates the markets with Yash and can help grow export markets
- There is a long shot but US market seems to be also shifting to RIP. They are otherwise OIP heavy for various legacy reasons but RIP is picking up here as well. This can be absurd value unlock if it plays out
Disc: I own Yash from 750 levels and I have added the stock recently as well