There were several questions about how pharma/API industry will be affected by supply issues with KSM from a country. I find the below research doc very illuminating about ‘their’ methods. For the impatient, go straight to ‘in-depth case studies’ arround page 20. Starts with norway case. They are very averse to affecting their own to punish others.
The CCPs coercive diplomacy_0.pdf (7.6 MB)
I infer that, if an api is indirectly/directly connected to their domestic pharma needs, then its KSM supplies are very likely safe for now (based on the research report of historical measures). The condition in which this rule will break would be if they have already stocked enough for a possible disruptive event (Example: War). Another way to view would be that if the supplies are not yet disrupted, then it could mean the current stock is not enough to start a war.
Can someone point to the country’s import data for medicines?
What about price escalation? Similar arguments can be made for the same. Waiting on commentary from others.