Rough transcription, apologies if there are errors etc. (There’s definitely Naming errors etc in the text). Its just good enough for searching keywords and skimming through.
Tried a free AI audio to Text tool. There is Quivr.app where you can do it better with an Open AI Api key.
Phantom Concall Audio to Text.pdf (165.7 KB)
After listening to the concall I’m of the opinion that it is not easy for AI to replace creative works. Even if it does, I assume it will not be in the immediate future. Bejoy claims that AI is going to actually going to help them.
Quoting Mr Bejoy from the concall
Q: So last question from my side, can you please talk a little bit about the risk of generative AI model and also you are saying that we are also using some internal product. Can you just you know, share how we are using it and just to make sure that you know we are ahead of the curve.
Basically to know how and what are you doing to ensure we don’t get disrupted by this kind of
technology.
Bejoy:
You know AI is like in a baby stage, you know it is not yet there to create or replace something
entirely like visual effects but what we are using for is like we are trying to reduce more of our manual efforts where we put lot of man hours in less creative work or process oriented works and also we are trying to build some systems where we can reduce this manual work and get it done by AI.
So, we have already implemented the AI successfully in so many aspects of it. We have started using AI in rotoscopy which is a process oriented work. We have already started using AI even in the concept stages, you know certain concepts are you know being drafted initially by AI and then our artist is taking forward from there. We are using it in paint and we are using it in some 3D as in development as well but it is still in a very baby stage actually so it is not going to completely replace any creative industry that we see going forward
It will just help our industry to you know make our
products better and deliver our clients better product in a quicker way. So that’s what I’m seeing.
Similar thing was discussed in basilic fly studio concall as well.
"Khushi Jain: Okay that helps a lot. Thank you. And my second question is around, I had a lot of questions around
it, but have you all incorporated AI in any of our processing because I think a lot of softwares are now
able to reduce the rotoscopy work.
Balakrishnan: Yes regarding AI stuff, we are using a copycat tools, which would really help us in terms of reduce
the roto work. We have this reduction in rotor work we are also involving our roto artists into other
streams as well so that really helps us. Once the roto work gets reduced we are currently using them
into compositing stuffs, so we are converting all of our roto artists into compositors and also into FX
training. And this roto work is reduced using a copycat tool. We have been using and we are also
trying to work on that to customize more.
hi,
i am studying the company recently.
i could not find this details about film distribution right that phantom has for Ayalaan.(that is is for international territory). Can you share the link.
Edit-
I found the reference in H1 FY24 concall approx. 43 minutes.
https://twitter.com/itsTarH/status/1728411875317301259?t=I942WV1Gw92adMSzSNTTIA&s=19
It seems like AI is a real threat. It’s not a matter of if, but when. There will be no entry barriers or moat once AI is advanced enough because all it will take is one AI tool subscription. I won’t be surprised if VFX production moves in-house after that. How can we value short-term growth if there is no terminal value?
Disclosure: Not invested
I think AI will totally disrupt this industry and the time taken to do this is also not very far. VFX is a labour intensive work once you have the creativity done and we know that how AI can be adapted for any labour intensive work. For creative part of work, my view is that within some years, this will become part of the regular work of the studio or at best outsourced by some freelancers. It’s just my view.
AI/ML can reduce more of the manual work
where companies put lot of man hours in less creative work or process oriented work
Rotoscopy (technique of manually creating a matte for an element on a live-action plate) is a process oriented work
AI,ML should help,Not Replace!
Same has been mentioned by Bejoy-
Aaylaan-Overseas distribution rights sold to hamsini entertainment
Film is going to release in 60+ countries
Source- Official Page-https://x.com/hamsinient/status/1728401259986891080?s=46
Amount is expected in next 2 quarters
Receivables will come down, inventory money is going to come.
Co-Producing the movie is giving them edge over the competitors and provides more opportunities to increase profits, It helps them to establish their brand ,These are additional add-on value that brings on the table.
same is mentioned by promoters
Best thing we can do is to track the numbers instead of making an assumption that AI would disrupt/not disrupt.
It would be wonderful if AI can actually reduce the costs of digital effects as we can watch more number of good quality movies/TV shows with digital effects. But that is not the case as of now. Phantom is going on a hiring spree. Does that mean the company has no idea about AI disruption? Maybe or maybe not.
There was a similar narrative that automation would reduce IT jobs in Indian IT companies. IT companies are still growing reasonably well and getting good orders.
People are not going to Photo studios these days for clicking pictures but we are still hiring studios for wedding shoots, photo shoots etc and paying hefty amounts to them. We always need professional help. (With reference to the thread on X)
I will stay away from prediction and follow the earnings, guidance and concalls.
https://twitter.com/ManickamRavich1/status/1728425505525837947?t=M6nZAWD9Lpk9Jj2OBU-nVw&s=19
This is from an investor with significant stake in both Basilic and Phantom.
https://twitter.com/BahirwaniKrish/status/1728416208368631963?t=w6UZ9Ja8nYJEeDPfxjWusw&s=19
This is from Krishna Bahirwani whose concall notes have already been posted in this thread
https://twitter.com/Finstor85/status/1728416667447767042?t=dlwDj_ucESwlC2PBRPUdzQ&s=19
And this is a well respected Twitter expert in IT cos agreeing with Tariq Bhai’s opinion.
So the jury is divided among the professional investors. Some guys in the Twitter thread have rightly pointed out that if AI were to entirely replace VFX, it won’t be long before they replace editing and design products like Adobe Premiere, AutoCAD etc. And majority of the IT services work. So if AI were to advance to the level anticipated, lot more than VFX companies will be affected. A good part of the NASDAQ and Nifty IT will go to dust too.
My simple 2 cents are:
If only creative work is to be done as AI will replace boring manual works then all these VFX companies will have another existential crisis as then studios will do all that creative works internally because that’s their expert domain. Today they are dependent on VFX companies largely for manual work in my view.
Here’s my take :
I think AI will reduce film production cost quite significantly and it is possible that in couple of years, movies will be produced completely digitally, which means no Studio requirement, no need for stunts, Art Direction, Costume Designers, Set Designers and such.
Imagine having Digitally created lead actors depending on where the movie is being released without any additional cost, for example, Indian for indian audience, white for western audience. I think these tools will make entire movie just from the novel. Now we can watch War and Peace instead of reading that enormous piece of text, i.e. Book to Movie LLMs.
Having said that, these AI tools will eventually be used by VFX engineers only, as they know the right language to prompt these LLMs accurately. AI can only give you what you ask and know, it won’t help you with what you don’t know or need to know to do your job. I cannot make VFX for marvel movie even with these technologies.
So for companies like Phantom and Basilic, it means potentially their average revenue per user might go down but can be offset by large number of such projects coz producing movies will be cheaper, so any stoy, any novel can be created into a movie.
[Disclaimer : Invested in Basilic, no position in Phantom]
Good post, thanks. May I ask if you are from the VFX industry? If somebody steeped in the VFX industry answers this question of the AI threat it would be more credible.
My two cents as someone who’s pursuing a PhD in AI and has witnessed the hype cycles around various Silicon Valley terminologies for almost 10 years now: You’re much better off asking about any new technology and its potential impact on society and businesses to the researchers who have spent multiple decades on developing that technology, rather than asking and forming opinions on random intellectual takes made available on the web.
For example, Book-to-Movie-LLMs are atleast 5-10 years away at best (if you expect the generated movie to look good enough that the people care to watch it). We can barely generate 2-3 seconds of decent (not particularly good looking) video content based on textual prompts today.
I cannot agree more with the Phantom management that this technology is in its baby stages. I’m not even sure I’d be holding Phantom for 5-10 years; this AI threat is too out in the future.
Disc: Invested and biased (position size: 30% of portfolio). Might sell anytime.
Why phantom u should go for basilic and digikore plz if u can ans than I will help full.
I think AI might not be a good news for less technical VFX workforce, but for companies like Phantom and Basilic, it’s actually a tool for them, which can reduce their cost, make them more efficient and productive. These companies are more than just cheap labor intensive arbitrage providers.
Current state of the art can only generate 3-4 seconds of clip but even a decent movie is more than just generation of imagery, which explains the huge disparity in income generated by few filmmakers, where thousands of movies are produced every year.
In my opinion, with strike getting over and production of movies back on track, good numbers should alleviate this AI overhang on these stocks.
this video should be helpful, AI discussion starts at 50 minutes
I don’t think quoting a 2019 article would benefit. Rapid advancements have been made post that. The points you mentioned are exactly what generative AI is capable of doing.
