Good video to understand the payments industry.
At around 39 minutes there is a slide on CC for UPI. This can be the next lever of growth for NPST.
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UPILite can potentially replace wallets? What will MobiKwik then do?
NPST_17012025171305_Cover_letter_Secretarial_Compliance_report_signed.pdf (1.6 MB)
Hopefully they move to mainboard soon
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It will do that, main problem with all these wallet based or apps that facilitate upi payments is that there is no revenue source in the there. Its the value added services they provide on the sides.
For Mobikwik wallet does not make the money its the credit card recharge, gold , insurance , ticket bookings services like these make money.
So Upi lite will not kill mobikwik as all of them are integrating upi lite, gpay and paytm have already done that. Mobikwik too if not done yet will do it eventually. So it will be buisiness as the same.
One thing is for sure is NPST which sits deeper in the supply chain is sure to benifit from all these. End Consumer companies like phone pe and Mobikwik should be viewed as potential customers.
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Good point⌠but MobiKwik canât be the customers as it would have already onboarded a UPI engine.
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NPST
One shouldnât bake in past earnings growth trajectory here, there will be slowness in earnings growth. Very competitive space, risks are unknown. NPST now will expands its organisation breadth, hence margins wonât be such high.
Shorterm term valuations side pain, medium term hopefully funding goes through, it can be good enough to accelerate the growth.
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What are npst competitor and does it have any advantage against competitors
According to Screener the PEG is of 1.05 so all the upcoming growth based of past growth numbers is priced in, To get a decent margin of safety it might be wise to wait atleast till the point peg comes down to around .5-.7 based on on your risk appetite. Also given current broader market sentitment this stock might become available at even better valuations.
Anyways do your own research thatâs just my view if i were to invest.
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GOI Upi incentive 2025-26 came down to 437cr??
Will it have any impact on NPSTâs revenue?
Experts please share your thoughts on this.
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I believe this question was asked at the earnings call in July 2024 - see pages 13 and 14. The short answer is that there will be some revenue impact in the API business where they charge some paise per transaction for some clients. Its hard to know how much though as they have so many different revenue models.
Very bad numbers. It will be difficult to even exit this after such numbers for at least 2 weeks.
Having said this, lower prices could actually be an opportunity to buy as the capabilities of the company remain robust imho. Concall would be able to clarify the reasons for such underperformance. Let us see.
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This was disappointing. There was no hint of this in the last concall either.
Microsoft Word - BM Outcome 13022025.pdf (1014.5 KB)
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did anyone attend the con call?
Yes, I did. Tou can listen to the recording here.
They claim it is a one quarter situation due to policy changes, with some spillover in this q too. Let us see. I will hold, as of now. Maybe even buy a few lots now and then.
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| Cosmos Bank - Payee PSP Volume | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25* | Q3 FY25* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Million Txs | 130 | 392 | ~400 | <90 or can be NIL |
| NPST Revenue (in crs) | 44 | 59 | 67 | 22 |
- Sepâ24 onwards Cosmos data is not available as it is no longer Top 15 Payee PSP. 15th ranked PSP has monthly average of 30 million txs.
Is there any correlation here?
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Of course yes. They told in the concall.
Hereâs a summary of the key highlights, growth, weaknesses, reasons for the sales decline in Q3 FY25, and the future outlook for Network People Services Technologies (NPST), according to the Q3 FY25 earnings call:
Please improve by adding/commenting below, if needed.
- Key Highlights
- NPST has mitigated business risks and strengthened its revenue model.
- The company fast-tracked its technical journey to add more banks to its ecosystem and added private sector and payments banks.
- NPST launched a credit line for UPI and is building a credit line platform for NBFCs.
- The company is becoming a partner to banks in building QR and Soundbox solutions.
- NPST has built an AI/ML engine for predicting fraud and stronger compliance in the banking ecosystem (Red Tech).
- Growth
- In the first nine months, the company experienced consolidated growth with approximately 78% in revenue, 96% in EBITDA, and 133% in PAT.
- NPST increased its bank partnerships from 12 in the last financial year to almost 18 to 20 currently.
- The company grew from one bank to three banks on its payment platform, with two more in the pipeline for the current quarter.
- Weaknesses
- Q3 FY25 revenue decreased to 23.23 CR, compared to 31.39 CR in Q3 of the previous year and 68.97 CR in the previous quarter.
- Guidance for the fiscal year may be impacted due to Q3 results.
- Reasons for Sales Decline in Q3 FY25
- Changes in policies of a primary cooperative bank caused a dip in the payment platform vertical, impacting the overall P&L.
- The acquiring policy for cooperative banks was under review, which caused delays and impacted revenue.
- The company did not anticipate the policy change would impact the entire quarter.
- Future Outlook
- NPST expects the impact to be temporary and anticipates a return to similar growth numbers seen in previous quarters.
- The company has completed policy changes, and cooperative banks can restart their acquiring business, with new onboarding already begun.
- NPST diversified its business model in the payment platform to mitigate future challenges and deliver better results.
- The company intends to offer the best success rate in transactions in the industry due to its focus on technical upgrades.
- NPST plans to monetize BBPS this quarter and is building QR and Soundbox solutions, which have led to incremental orders and new accounts.
- The company expects full-blown numbers from multiplied revenue engines, although spillover from Q3 may affect overall numbers.
- NPST is targeting the Middle East market and plans to open an office in Dubai.
- NPST aims to manage a million sound boxes through its platform, which will add tremendous revenue.
- The company expects that the existing business portfolio will contribute about 85-90% of revenue, with the new portfolio adding at least 10-15% in the P&L.