Nithin's Portfolio

[nithin_Shenoy]

Let me highlight what SECTORAL PF means according to my framework/structure

Don’t copy my Portfolio - please have your own conviction on stocks that you own. What works for me doesn’t work for you or sometimes doesn’t work for me. Consider this with bucket full of SALT.

• CORE PF : This is backed by fundamental research which has potential to do well in next 5-10 years.

• SECTORAL PF : I have made this to learn how sector work, am very bad at sectoral rotation so trying to learn with nimble foot. The capital here is very minimal and this is kind of WIN OR LOSE portfolio.

The investment here are purely to learn about Technical + Little Fundamentals

What I do here?

• As per Hitesh - I did read snippets of Mark Minervini and William o Neil ideas
  • Firstly in stocks there is stage analysis
    * Stage - 1 : This stage is consolidation
    * Stage - 2 : This stage is big jump about 20%-50%
    * Stage - 3 : This stage is consolidation
    * Stage - 4 : This stage is crucial whether if the business has growth drivers then it will rebound to upper stage or lower stage
    * If Upper Stage : Then follow approach of Stage-2
    * If Lower Stage : Exit based on TA then we are back to Stage - 1 : This stage is consolidation

Here is the snippet :

High Tight Flag :

VCP :

More Ideas Here :

52 week highs and all time highs strategy

NBCC chart was posted back in April 2024 as a potential medium term breakout as shown in above post. The stock price since then has been facing stiff resistance between 43-45 range (marked in solid red lines) and in last couple of days managed to break out above this range after nearly 6 months . Today it retested the breakout zone. The pattern also resembles an ascending triangle breakout. Need to see how the retest phenomenon goes and whether the rally resumes after a brief pause. This…

My aim in SECTORAL PF here is to jump on the running tiger (momentum) and make decent 10%-30% returns and exit only money that I make is between what I buy and sell.

This is not a recommendation - am posting this here to learn and be better at things that am doing.

• Forum members are very knowledgeable and kind - this helps me to cut my ego, remove mental bias and re asses my learning.

@manoopatil : RKFORGE is an excellent company they have become an important part of the global market
Aim to enter two biggest markets of trailer axle and differentials.

Triggers

• 40% of last year’s what order wins will start from second quarter onwards

Capex :

• Installed cold forging capability for which they have already received complete sold-out order for seven years, which we’ll start operations from FY '25 first quarter
• capex of around INR 300 Crores to INR 350 Crores

Order :

• Total order wins of about INR 7.7 billion, INR 770 Crores in FY '23
• Company has secured a prestigious order of EUR 4.5 million from a European railway passenger coach manufacturer.
• On the TWL consortium TWL has signed a significant contract work with Ministry of Railway Government of India under Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative. This contract entails the supply of Ramkrishna Forgings Limited
• 1.54 million forged wheels further solidifying our commitment to supporting the growth and modernization of the Indian railway sector.

Capacity

• Company has commenced commercial production of 13,700 tons per annum of R A shaft press line and 10,100 tons for the 5-inch Upsetter.
• Due to the extension in production capacity totaling 23,800 tons per annum
  will strengthen our ability to meet the increasing demand for high-quality post components in the automotive industry.
• Total production capacity now spread 210,900 ton per annum,
• Year-on-year growth of 28%.
• EBITDA margin for Q1 FY '24 : 22.4%

Acquisitions :

• Approved acquisition of Multitech Auto Private Limited and its whollyowned subsidiary Mal Metalliks Private Limited.
  • The company has a capacity to manufacture 21,600 metric ton per annum machine SG & CI castings and bar draw facility of 6,000 metric ton per annum
  • This acquisition will make its presence in the passenger vehicle, light commercial vehicle and heavy commercial vehicle segments.
• Acquisition of Casting and with the acquisition of Multitech, had helped RKFORGE to be all rounder except the sheet metal, and tyres and engine apart from that they are available across all platforms in any vehicle, which is moving on road

About Rail Wheel Project

❖ Ramkrishna Forgings holds 51% in the Joint Venture and is a lead partner in this railway contract
❖ It will establish a manufacturing plant in India for the production of 200,000 forged wheels per annum
❖ Expected to start operation by end of FY26

India used to import railway wheel from China now since RKFORGE is here to help around, this would be great and Titagarh has order book approx. 10000 crore for wheels.

Now for your question : I agree that there is froth build up in RAILWAY SECTOR, which I did notice later on - so I have exited and tracking for now.

Long Term PF : Exited HBL POWER too - will wait and watch

Now does the correction happen? I dont know - I dont have crystal ball to see the future. I go with parameters like
EV/EBITDA

MARKETCAP/SALES

Now people will say - this is incorrect as you are seeing history and bla bla

See for me the main idea seeing history is that - none of the railway companies has started delivering and all stocks have run almost 2x.

• Some say in bull market no matter how big load you have in the cart - the bull will move.

I honestly dont know anything - will wait to wait and find out.