My portfolio updates and investment journey

[joinjp2003]

My rationale on Sandhar Technology (3% allocation, 8% profit): My first buy was in July 2023 at 357 rs. My last transaction (buy) was in August 2023 at ~400 rs.

First time I came across Sandhar was an year back on scientific investing and the logical investor collaborative video on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irrl7f1jeWE&t=1312s. However, I ignored it as I am generally not big on auto ancillaries. Then this company came back on my radar when I was watching a recent SOIC’s (Ishmohit’s) video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PneVPf1L-y4 (14th minute). One thing which really clicked this time was when he mentioned the operating cash flows of the company over 300 crores for FY 23, while market capitalization was around ~2000 crores. So I bought my first tranche by end of July 2023. In Q1 2024, the cash flows were 98 crore. So if I annualize that it gives ~400 crores of cash flow. That is ~17% operating cash flow yield. So, I added aggressively in the August month.

Generally, valuation is not only parameter for me. My further readings changed my mind of this being a traditional auto ancillary. I went through company conference calls, presentation, and annual reports. I liked its products; smart locks, motor controller unit (MCU), DC converter, off board chargers etc. Please note that I don’t have deep knowledge of these products. Only thing is when I was talking to one of my friends on BLDC fans, he talked about MCU as one of the components. Also, little bit of my research on off-board charger shows that it makes EVs lighter, reduces space requirements and much more efficient in charging battery.

Company works with a vision and plan. This is visible in their presentation. One of the snapshots below show the road map on MCU:

Source: Sandhar Investor Presentation for June ended quarter.

Going forward, past two-three years capex is coming in frution and future capex requirements will be very low. Hence, free cash flows will increase subtantially. Two wheeler industry going forward will move from manual locks for 300 to 400 rs to Sandhar’s smart locks of over 2000 rs per vehicle.

Source: Sandhar conference call Q4 FY2023

Though company’s products are EV agnostic, their EV pipeline of products could result in 15k to 30k revenue per vehicle for two wheelers while 50k to 60k for 4-wheelers.

Source: Sandhar conference call Q4 FY2023

Their JVs, which were in losses are breaking even or coming in profits. 2-wheeler industry growth is 2-3% but company grows in 20-25% range. This shows that value of its products per vehicle is increasing. Products seems futuristics as well.

Is management sounding too bullish? lets track and manage…

I Invite the people to comment who have the knowledge on MCU, DC-convertors and Off-board chargers to share their knowledge on Sandhar Tech’s thread - Sandhar Technologies - An emerging market leader - #18 by Souresh_Pal

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example and learning purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

[joinjp2003]

My rationale on Pitti Engineering (3% allocation, 34% profit)

My first buy in Pitti was in July 2023 at INR445. My last transaction (buy) was in August at INR520. My average cost is INR475.

Pitti has come on my radar many a times here https://twitter.com/drprashantmish6/status/1417516673704284161 and here: https://twitter.com/sahil_vi/status/1481641274205560834 . However, I bit the bullet just couple of months back.

My decisions was mainly driven by barriers of entry:

1. Pitti is uniquely positioned company with almost everything under one roof: Management highlights that they are the only one in India with presence in sheet metal, fabrication, tooling and machining, shaft manufacturing and assembly. This has allowed them to transition their business to garner larger chunk in the value chain. Earlier company was mainly oriented towards commoditized loose sheet metal sales and customer at their end would laminate and assemble their motors/machines. However, now Pitti manufactures/casts and assemble various parts of motors (shaft, stator and rotors) along with their lamination now integrated with these components and making the product almost ready to use. This accounted for ~75% of revenues in Q1 FY24 and remaining was loose metal sheet sales.

2. Time to market: a single product takes about 18-24 months for vendor registration, for a single product it takes 18 months for approval, and some pilot time and final commercial production. So all in all it shall take 3 to 5 years for any new player to reach market

3. Very high number of SKUs: to take Pitti head-on any new competitor needs to have 5000+ SKUs on day one

4. Competitive with China its products have indirectly went into China as well. In their concall they mention some of their products are 40-45% cheaper than China.

5. Long relationships for its customers: company has one to two decades of relationship with global giants like ABB, GE, Siemens, Cummins etc.

Note: Above points are taken/summarised from valuepickr thread (Pitti Engineering Limited: Is it on an inflection point?), Sahil’s and Dr. Prashant’s threads.

In addition to above, Pitti gives exposure to high growth areas like railways, data centers, 5G and EV.

Source: Company presentation, Q1 FY24

Large market size of 5 lakh tons provides a long runway for growth. Pitti has only ~10% market share. Most of the market is un-organised.

Lastly valuations (PE<30) were not as crazy as some of the capital goods, EV and railway companies recently have shot upto.

Looking ahead: company has guided to do ~1800 crores of revenues by FY25/26. So revenue shall increase by 70-80% cumulatively by FY25. While company has also guided for improvement in EBTIDA per ton by 4-5%. Hence, profit growth is likely to exceed 100% cumulatively by FY25/26.

Triggers for margin improvements: scale benefits, automation of factories (already in progress), and operating leverage.

Risks: Portion of revenue is cyclical and debt on the balance sheet.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example and learning purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

[Pradeep_Chitluri]

Good choice. They are attempting to shift the product mix toward laminate assembly from just supplying laminates. If everything goes as planned, EBITDA might rise significantly. They are also attempting to become contract manufacturers for OEMs, which is a good objective.

[Mehul1]

Hi JP Sir,

Last month, I read your rationale on Sandhar Technology, along with the youtube video links etc, which sparked my interest and prompted me to delve deeper into this company. Since then, I have been reading about the company, its products, financials, past conference calls, and investor presentations, etc.
I also took note of your observation on 300-400 operating cashflow. The more I read, the more my conviction for taking a position in this company grows. Finally yesterday I was able to bought at 350 level, and i’m looking forward to adding more as my confidence in this investment continues to grow day by day.

Thanks for sharing your insights on Sandhar. We are learning and growing together!

Cheers, Mehul

[joinjp2003]

Great @Mehul1 . Good that you were able to buy it bit lower. Lets see how story moves forward. Thanks to @Worldlywiseinvestors who shared this in one of the video.

[joinjp2003]

Portfolio update – November 2023

Hi all, thanks for reading up on my investment journey. Many of you liked my content and specially write-up on Sandhar and Mapmyindia. Thanks again.

Asset allocation:

I have now reached my target asset allocation with now non-equity (cash/bond/REIT) at 51% and Equity at 49%. Given that my non-equity portfolio provides a monthly steady income for my household expenses I am unlikely to increase non-equity allocation in near future. However, I continue to find very attractive opportunities in bond markets with yields in 10-12% range for AA rated bonds.

Equity allocation:

My number of stocks have remained largely same around 20. However, there is substantial change within it. Some new entries – Nuvama, 360 One, Nippon Life, Divgi Toqrue, Deepak Fertilizers, medplus, Indiamart etc. Barring Nuvama everything else is small and in ramp-up mode. I exited: Tips Industries, ICICI Lombard, XPRO, Birla Precision, Salzer electronics, Pitti engineering, and many of the R&D stocks. I don’t have any R&D stock at this point.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

My top 5 allocations at 48% and top 10 are 78%. So concentration factor has increased mainly due to sharp rise in Rategain since last update.

Highlight of this quarter:

Nuvama Wealth Management (6% allocation): Thanks to Neil Bahal (Negen Capital) who talked about this special situation about 6-7 months back in his one of the presentations. When Nuvama listed in September 2023, I did my research and found it to be in 20-25 PE. While I found an interview of its CEO where he mentioned they shall hire 1000 more relationship managers (RMs) over next 3 to 4 years, which basically meant doubling RMs.

Wealth management in India will quadruple in the coming decade: Nuvama Group...

Neil’s interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8mPTrlYTIM

I ramped up my position very fast at an average price of 2381. This has already resulted in 36% returns in the last 2 months.

I was positively surprised by results from Rategain, Paytm, and PB Fintech.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

[praneet_drolia]

@joinjp2003

360 One, Nippon Life, Divgi Toqrue, Deepak Fertilizers, medplus, Indiamart

Hello sir, Can you also share the reasoning for others. 360 One, Nippon Life, Divgi Toqrue, Deepak Fertilizers, medplus, Indiamart

[Rishabh_Solanki]

Heelo Sir. Whats your reasoning behind exiting salzer and xpro ? I have recently build positions on both this co. Any valueable feedback will be appreciated.

[joinjp2003]

@Rishabh_Solanki I exited Salzer and XPRO as results were below my expectations and found new opportunities. Salzer I tailed a big investor and i noted that may be i dont have his conviction. Also XPRO is seeing increased competition in medium term. I am ready to miss these for my conviction in new others in my portfolio.

[joinjp2003]

Hi @praneet_drolia thanks for checking on.
Nuvama, Nippon life and 360 one have broadly similar themes. Nuvama and 360 One is play on India’s rich and Nippon life is bet on Indians who plan or in process to get rich. Financialisation is going to be big. I am not playing it through direct lending but through non-lending or indirect lending (Paytm and pb fintech).

Nuvama and 360 One have play on HNIs and UHNI’s through product offerings like AIFs, PMS, LAS and securities underwriting. We have noted how “play on rich” themes like Titan, Ethos and Cartrade played recently. While Nippon is play on mass market through ETFs and MFs.

Divgi Torque - this one came in a interesting way to me. Someone I follow on twitter re-tweeted this article from Itus capital - Vol 13 – Survival of The Fittest - ITUS Capital . I loved the content, just amazing. Then i thought of knowing more about them. I really liked their “weekly enlightment” and “what we are reading” series. Then somehow I got to look at their portfolio and noted Divig as odd name (for me) out there. Then I researched and read annual report. Divgi Torque management is aiming for 1000 crore revenues over next 3-4 years which is about 4x of FY23 revenues. EV play, currently EV OEMs are importing the products they offer so a localisation play. Please read latest annual report - seems like a david trying to become goliath. Valuations seems high but should be seen in context.

Deepak is bit of special situation and their move on becoming specialised chemical play. PE seems reasonable at 10 but its difficult for me to understand this fully and hoping this to replicate Deepak Nitrite. I am quick to book losses if need be so please do not take action based on my thesis.

Medplus is negligible in my portfolio. But you should visit their latest presentation as it provides lot of insights - Highest ROCEs retail business is pharma, they covered only southern part with 3000 stores it can easily go to 6000+ stores in next 3 to 5 years, focus on non-branded private label medicines and OTCs can help them disrupt branded players.

Indiamart is I am trying to play a margin improvement game. Though my focus is currently on Garware Hitech, Pricol and Ami Organics. I will share detailed rationale shortly on those.

[joinjp2003]

Recently I have strated writing notes for my reference for stock identification and rationale: I provide below some of them:
My notes on stock identification – Garware Hitech Films (GHFL)

I was going through presentation by Ian Cassel on multi-baggers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trT3GmEWZPg . He talked about a business XPEL which makes Paint Protection Film (PPF) for auto companies. It has gone up over 100x in the last 10 years. I was interested in knowing if there is any such firm in India. I searched for “paint protection” in screener. First name popped up was “Garware Hitech Film”.

I went through company presentation and I was positively surprised. Exports account for 75% which means good quality products and cost advantages. It seems much more diversified across Auto, Industrial, packaging, construction etc. vs. XPEL (only Auto). Its main products are PPF (30% of revenues and 80%+ of it is exported) and Solar Control Film, SCF, (36% of revenues and 90%+ is exported).

Positive triggers ahead: SCF second line to have peak utilization by FY25, which means about 500 crores of revenues addition in two years (LTM revenue was ~1500 crores). In addition, there have been positive regulatory developments on safety glazing film (to achieve 6-8 % of revenues in next three years).

With above factors company can grow revenues at 15% CAGR for next two three years and bottom-line accretion could be in 20% range as company’s margins currently are suppressed due to aggressive investments (marketing and service centers) for PPF and safety glazing (it was banned in India but now re-launched).

Stock seems reasonably valued at 20PE with market cap of 3400 crores. It has a landbank of 1000 crores (source: Sharekhan report published on September 04, 2023).

Penetration of PPF on cars in India is below 1% vs. 10-12% in the US. PPF makes sense for cars above 20 Lakhs. This premium car market in India is growing rapidly. Hence, this can be a high growth exposure on auto growth.

Cost of PPF on per car in India including installation is 2 to 3 lakhs. ((credit to @spartan who has done some scuttlebutt)). While XPEL in its presentation shows 4000-6000 us dollars for PPF and ~1000 dollars for installation. So this puts total cost around 4 to 6 lakhs in the US.

Competitors: 3M, XPEL

Right to win (innovation, market share, cost) –

1. In SCF, only company in the world with backward integration (Chip-to-films)
2. Only one of 2 in dyed SCF
3. Leading player in India’s shrink film (used in packaging) market with over 60% market share
4. India’s first company to produce PCR grade & APR certified Ecofriendly Shrink Films
5. GHFL is the only producer of professional-grade Premium paint protection film (PPF) in India.

Risks:

1. Some related party transactions.
2. Sitting on land of around 1000 crores (not an efficient use of resources) vs. mcap of 3400 crores

Thanks,

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

[joinjp2003]

My notes on Pricol:

Source: screener.in

Summary rationale: Pricol was on my radar for last 6 months but now with about 12% correction I became interested. Price corrected post soft Q2 24 results. However, management continues to guide ~4,000 crore revenues by FY26 and some margin improvement (~200bps over next two years). Back of envelope calculation showcases about 35% revenue CAGR and profit growth well above it. LTM PE is 34 which means company is available at 1PEG*. I find companies less than 2PEG attractive.

*PEG: PE (price to earning multiple) to growth ratio.

DIS systems used to be in 200-300 rs for per vehicle now they are priced at 1200 per vehicle (2-wheeler). With increased digitisation and more sophistication these products are likely to go in 2000-2500 rs range over the next three years, as per the management.

Other triggers:

• Company has entered 4-wheeler market very recently with Tata Nexon models, previously they could not due to some anticompetitive agreements. If they can garner more share in 4-wheelers then it shall provide huge upside to the company.
• Increasing EV penetration results in high value per vehicle and higher margins.
• Beyond FY26 companies’ new product initiatives (Telematics, Battery management systems Micro Motors and Robotics and Artificial Intelligence based processes and equipment) through JVs will start bearing fruit and that will provide additional kicker beyond FY26.
• Ownership battle between promoter group and Minda Corp (15.7% stake) shall keep prices supported. Minda corp has reached out to competition commission to increase its stake in the company to ~25%.

Right to win:

• Over 50% markets share (in value terms) in 2 wheelers (2W), 70% market share in CVs and 50% market share in tractors.
• 8 of 10 2W EV models are served by Pricol
• Entry barrier for competition is moderate to high as auto ancillaries take about 2-3 years for product approval and another 6 to 12 months for production. In addition, products are customised for each model.

Risks:

• Tech disruption
• EV adoption slowdown

Products: Pricol makes driver information system (65% of revenues) and actuation, control and fluid management system (35% of revenues).

Source: Pricol Q2 24 presentation

Customers:

Company caters to all major 2wheeler, 3wheeler, commercial vehicles, tractors manufactures

Source: Pricol Q2 24 presentation

Competitor: Minda Corp

Thanks

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

[joinjp2003]

My notes on Ami Organics:

Source: screener.in

Summary rationale: I bought Ami Organics Ltd’s (AOL) just last week (24th November) making it over 5% of my portfolio. On the face of it stock looked expensive at over 50PE, however given the growth opportunities and its presence in sunrise industry (EVs and semiconductors) it looks reasonably priced.

My thesis on AOL is mainly based on three key opportunities:

1. Long-term contracts with Fermion for 3 key molecules. One of the molecules Darolutamide used in Nubeqa is likely to have peak sales of over USD3 billion. AOL is the exclusive supplier for intermediates used in Darolutamide (an anti-cancerous drug) for a long-term basis. A back of the envelope calculation puts this opportunity to about 1200 crores* annually by 2030 if fully serviced by AOL. The patent for this drug expires in 2030. If we assume even other 2 molecules are as large then opportunity seems huge.

*Assuming cost of intermediate accounts for 5%. The cost of Acetaminophen which is used in paracetamol tablets like Dolo 650 is about 15%.

2. Electrolyte additives: AOL has developed electrolyte additives which are used in lithium batteries to increase the life of the batteries. Market size for this is estimated to be over USD1 billion and likely to double to USD2 billion in the next 3 to 4 years. AOL aims to garner 10% of this market which puts its revenue potential to about 1600 crores annually by end of 2030.

3. Semi-conductor chemicals business: AOL recently in Q2 FY24 acquired 55% stake in Baba Fine Chemicals (Baba) which is semiconductor chemicals. AOL aims to take Baba’s revenue to over 200 crores by FY25. This is a high margin business with EBITDA margins in 40% range vs. current AOL business in 20% range.

In addition to above, AOL continues to launch large market size products like UV absorber, and has maintained that further contracts with Fermion are in the discussions. All the new products are likely to support margins and operating leverage is likely to result in margins in 25% vicinity from current range of 20%. Currently margins are somewhat depressed as the company integrated Gujarat Organics plants over the last two years which exhibited very low margins.

I have modelled two scenarios

Opportunity based:

and,

Capex and management guidance-based scenario

In above two scenarios my worst return expectation by FY28 is likely to be 20% CAGR in scenario 2 (capex and management guidance based) with PE derating to 30. While best return expectation is likely to be at 43% CAGR in opportunity-based scenario with re-rating to 60 PE.

Right to win:

• Only company outside China to have developed Electrolyte additives
• 50-90% global market share in key molecules
• Chronic Therapy focus: ~90%
• Majorly backward integrated to Basic Chemical level
• Strong customer relationships with customers with relations lasting over a decade
• Diversified across pharma, agro, semi-conductors and electrolytes

Though some of the risks to above estimates are mitigated by first mover (outside China) advantage, exclusive agreements and India cost advantage, we still need to account for below risks:

• Regulatory risks related to Pharma Intermediates business – FDA related issues
• Product obsolescence – if a new and much more effective medicine becomes available then the expected opportunity of Fermion contract may not play out. It may similarly impact company’s existing products and pipeline.
• Competition - Electrolyte additive opportunity may not fully fructify if another competitor is able to replicate same outside of China
• EV adoption slow down
• Concentration risks – top 10 customers account for 58% of revenues.

Customers:

Company caters to major domestic and overseas MNCs.

Source: AOL Q2 24 presentation

Peers: Divis Lab (APIs), Neogen and Neuland.

Thanks
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.

[BalaKishore_Nukala]

Hi @joinjp2003 Jai Prakash i gone through overall thread, very well articulated each and every investment. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and knowledge.

[praneet_drolia]

Thanks for sharing this

[Samarth1]

Are there any other listed players who are in to smart lock making or have announced capex or expansion plans in to it?

[joinjp2003]

@Samarth1 Minda has some presence. I could not find capex specifically for smart locks.

[Crishna]

I think Sandhar makes PCBs for smart locks.

[cometolearn]

@joinjp2003 Its been a while we heard you sir, Have you done any shuffling in your portfolio

[joinjp2003]

Hi Jagrit @cometolearn , I wish you and all valuepickr forum’s readers and investors a very happy new year. May our learning never stop…

I plan to share my updates on quarterly basis. However, I shall share my thought process and recent additions. Some of my recent investments are nervous investments. I have penned my thoughts below:

Prologue

Most of my investing from 2019 to H1-2023 is based on sectoral trends (financialisation, localisation, technology adoption etc.) validated/supported by management guidance and reasonability of valuations. The pricing and competition was not much of a factor in these businesses either due to uniqueness of the businesses or large opportunity sizes. I feel lucky that I have been successful, thanks to roaring bull market where everything I do seems right and getting validated in a short time.

I understand that as an investor I need to evolve. However, I am getting somewhat nervous as the recent businesses which have come on my radar are driven by China pricing and competition. All of these businesses look fantastic based on historcial financials and I am hoping that margins mean revert and asset turnovers on new capex is maintained at historical level. Nervouseness is also driven by the fact that these businesses are mostly not-undervalued on the face of it.

The few businesses which have came on my radar recently are Clean Science, Tatva Chintan, Neogen Chemical, Deepak Fertilizers and Ami Organics. Though few of these I have been tracking for past several months now I got really interested and already own these (in 1-5% range of allocation).

Financials of Clean Science are just exceptional so I thought of screening similar businesses. Only 10 non-finance companies met the criteria. This led me to research some more interesting companies – Suven Pharma and 3B Blackbio.

Screener criteria and outcome:

Source: screener.in

Another question I face is how many stocks should I own. I am already closing in on 30 from 22 last month.

I sold Paytm - it was a very painful decision and I feel I shall regret it. I shall revisit it in couple of quarters based on concalls and company guidance. I exited Nasdaq fund also. I sold some REITs also. I sold REITs as post state election I became more bullish on equity and deployed that money to stocks.

Other than chemicals and pharma - I recently added Welspun Living. Management guiding for 15000+ crores revenue in 2-3 years and marginal margin improvement. Anticipated FTA signing with UK and rest of Europe shall be a big kicker (but that is long term trigger). Stock is available below 20PE and above 165 it shall break 2.5 years range.

Some closing thoughts on 2023 and 2024: I built up postions by end of 2023 where I am nervous and in addition I am not betting where it is clear cut case to invest in 2024. Its easiest to be in HDFC and Kotak but dil hai ki mid and smallcap me hi fasa hai. FIIs shall comeback and obvious choice for them is to buy India proxy and largecaps. India proxy is financials (banks mostly), also their prices continue to remain where they were 2-3 years back. So value, liquidity (fund flow of FIIs) and dumb ETF money shall all favour large cap banks. Still I have not bet on it yet, I dont have an answer for it, may be I change my mind. Lets see…

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation.