Musings On the year gone by
This post is directed to myself more than anyone else. This is how I reflect and evaluate the year gone by and my aspirations and hopes for the current year. I must say I was inspired by the posts of @phreakv6 Phreak's Thoughts, Ideas and Opinions but as they say in the bible " I am not worthy of untying the straps of his sandal".
Last year has been a tumultuous rollercoaster ride on the personal front and exceptional on the pf front. I accepted a job abroad after working for 22 years in my home state , worked for a few months and then quit abruptly. I turned a full time investor post that . Only time will tell if my decision was right. Pf did exceedingly well , raked up 100% returns this year with very small cash infusion. I am pretty sure this kind of returns will never happen in the years to come and its a case of “rising tide lifts all boats”.
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Few of the stocks that did phenomenally well were Neuland labs, IRIS business, Shakti pumps , PGEL, HBL Power, Gujarat Themis,Techno Electric Engg etc : Most of these were picked up last year and year before and I continue to hold most of them except PGEL and Guj Themis. I sold 2/3rd of Neuland labs after Q2 commentary of flattish performance for the rest of the year, to my eternal dismay
Similarly I sold PGEL at c. Rs 650 to see it soar another double from there ! Some lessons learned on the supremacy of markets -
Few of the average performers in the portfolio include : Gufic, KPIT(bought in 21) , Navin (I bought in 2019), Bikaji, Annapurna , Waaree energies , GRP . I continue to hold Gufic, KPIT and Navin .
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Few of the stocks that didnt perform : Sanghvi movers, tarachand , Basilic/Digikore/Phantom, Shivalik . I have exited all these names .
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Some of the stocks that I entered this year and continue to hold : Websol,Anant Raj, Zen Tech, Cartrade, TRIL, Danish Power, Zaggle, Tembo Global, Macfos, Pennar industries and Addictive Learning.
Learnings and Aspirations
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I picked most of the stocks based on the excellent quarterly performance . Prabhakar Kudva talks about it here…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUXi07HAzIk . I guess in bull markets that strategy will work even though the markets would have priced in the expectation of good performance quite a bit. Even if you have to forego a good bit of initial moves, this has given me good returns . Stories like PGEL, GRP, Websol , Bikaji etc were identified so. I want to study technicals this year so as to identify stories even before those reflect in numbers . I dont think I will ever be a pure technical guy but I feel a technofunda approach lopsided towards fundamentals would suit me. Another second order consequence of this was that I looked up almost all companies that came out with their results in Q2 and Q3 . While this is not an easy task , this I believe is in the spirit of Peter Lynch saying " *The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game * or Buffet saying " Well start with the A’s ".
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Value pickr is a gold mine and cant thank enough the role it has paid in generating new ideas, building conviction etc. When I see the quality of the investors participating I realize how much more harder I need to work and that keeps me motivated. I have long looked up to the senior boarders and mentors like Hitesh Bhai, Ayush bhai, Pratyush bhai, Abhishek dada, Donald ji , Bharani bhai, S Patel ji and Rupesh ji among many others. This year I want to write and contribute to this forum more. I believe the more we selflessly share the more it comes back to us. Thats a rule that holds true in life, relationships and compounding of knowledge and wealth alike. I really like the idea of Guy Spier of selfless giving and equating value investing with living a virtuous life https://fs.blog/education-value-investor/.
Part of the reason why I left my job and jumped into the uncertainty of jobless life was because of the endless monotony of meaningless meetings and corporate politics.
I also would want to be part of a group of like minded investor friends whom I can sound out ideas and learn and grow together this year. -
Avoiding FOMO and Panic is probably a big part of investing success. Equanimity, self belief and courage are virtues that will hold me in good stead. I believe bear markets / sub optimal return periods are around the corner (But no one knows when). Selling is something I am very poor at. I want to learn more on selling strategies . I like the ideas of Rajasekhar Iyer on selling and am trying to build a system of selling around it.
I also want to pursue meditation this year to improve concentration and overall mental wellness. I am realizing now that full time investing is an individual sport and you need to constantly back yourself. There are constant chances of relapse , lethargy and drudgery and you need to motivate your self constantly especially in the times of negative markets .
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Position sizing and trimming the positions : Position sizing is something I need to learn and implement . I have around 28 stocks currently in my pf and that I realize is a bit too much . Eventhough 80% is held in top 15 stocks and rest are foot in the door kind of bets , I need to strive to make the pf 15 at best for more concentration, deeper study and meaningful positions. Selling is a painful process and I guess thats the reason why I hold so many positions. I guess one of the mantras for this year would be Go Deeper and avoid the shallow. Deeper research probably builds better conviction, lets you connect the dots and possibly makes you a better investor.
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On a personal front the aims are to eat healthy, workout more, work on mental health and be grateful more. As the saying goes "to finish first you need to first finish ".* Its important to lead a healthy life both mentally and physically. Plan is to eat more protein ,avoid sugar , refined carbs and processed foods as much as possible . Workout , mobility and strength training for 5x a week . Other endeavors are Chain /guide the mind monkey , worry less, be less angry , forgive easily and take responsibility and pray /meditate more. Need to build a habit of daily journaling , pen down the buy/sell decisions. (I started last year but have been erratic ). Another goal is to read more books . In fact I have read much lesser since turning full time than previously . Lack of general/broad reading makes me feel hollow which I intend to correct in '25.
Apologies for this long monologue , but this serves as a sign post of my thoughts and aspirations in 24-25. I wish you all a great new year !!!