My Investment rational in HIKAL:
#Rate of change moving forward looks good.
1.FY25 is mainly depended on human pharma.
2.FY26 Crop protection business start contributing.
3.FY27 Animal pharma starts contributing.
I think all the three segment are going to rampup till Fy28 where ROCE is above 20% and ebidta margin went upto 25%.
| HIKAL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
| Revenue |
1720 |
1943 |
2023 |
1785 |
1850 |
2127 |
2446 |
2812 |
| Ebidta margin |
19% |
18% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
19% |
23% |
25% |
| Ebidta |
326.8 |
349.74 |
262.99 |
267.75 |
296 |
404.13 |
562.58 |
703 |
| Other income |
5 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
| Interest |
36 |
31 |
48 |
56 |
60 |
60 |
60 |
60 |
| deprecition |
85 |
96 |
109 |
118 |
130 |
135 |
130 |
125 |
| PBT |
210.8 |
227.74 |
110.99 |
95.75 |
111 |
214.13 |
377.58 |
523 |
| TAX |
36 |
27 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
| Net profit |
133 |
160 |
78 |
70 |
75 |
156 |
272 |
376 |
| CURRENT MCAP |
4731 |
|
| EXIT PE FY28 |
EX MCAP FY 28 |
CAGR |
| 25 |
9400 |
26% |
| 30 |
11280 |
33.59% |
| 35 |
13160 |
40.64% |
Dis. Invested and biased
2 Likes
My Investment rational in JUBILANT PHARMOVA
Their Q3 FY 25 presentation was very detailed, worth reading
As per management the are targeting 2x sale till fy30
and improvement in ebidta margin from 15-16% to 23-25%.
they are also trying to become debt free till 2030.
going through their cashflow it looks possible.
if things got in direction where management is guiding
this is what we can expect
JUBILANT PHARMOVA
2030
Revenue 13500
Ebidta margin 24%
Ebidta 3240
Other income 0
Interest 0
deprecition 430
PBT 2810
TAX 28
Net profit 2023
| CURRENT MCAP |
14604 |
|
| EXIT PE FY30 |
EX MCAP FY 30 |
CAGR |
| 25 |
50575 |
28% |
| 30 |
60690 |
33.00% |
| 35 |
70805 |
37.00% |
Their are many things which can go wrong that is why I am diversified into 4 stock in pharma.
Dis. Invested and biased
1 Like
@mayank_raghuwanshi Thanks for sharing. One of the concerns that I have about Jubilant pharmova is their Montreal facility where they make Radiopharma products (highest contribution to their revenue at present). The relationship between US and Canada being fragile, the uncertainity quotient is a bit on higher side for Jubilant. Besides, doubling the revenue over 5 years period is rather a mediocre growth to my view.
Yes it can be a issue of a real but for that risk we make a portfolio.second on growth side PAT growth looks good and 15% sales growth is not bad. My expectation with portfolio is 15-20% it’s enough for me.
Good updates on pharma segment by aditya khemka sir
Krsnaa
Thesis-
Krsnaa has consistently expanded its diagnostic centers, particularly in underserved regions, through PPPs. This strategy has enabled the company to tap into a broader patient base.
Cost leadership - They have Superior cost structure enabled by PPP contracts, combined with operational efficiency, enables disruptive pricing (50-60% discount) without compromising on profitability.
Extensive Network: Wide presence in tier II and III cities, tapping into underserved markets.
This makes KDL possibly the best proxy for ‘bottom of pyramid’ healthcare growth opportunity in India.
Company is actively expanding into the retail (B2C) diagnostic segment through multiple strategic partnerships, focusing on developing end-to-end retail capabilities and not restricted to any one particular business channel.
Government initiatives promoting healthcare accessibility and increased health awareness among the population have positively influenced the diagnostic sector.
Technological Integration: Adoption of teleradiology and digital platforms enhances service delivery.
Risk-
Technological disruption.
Heavy reliance on government contracts, Changes in government policies or delays in contract renewals under PPP models could impact operations.
As payment timelines of the Government receivables tend to be high, KDL’s debtors holding period remained at ~125days as of September 30, 2024, up from 55 days and 104 days as of March 31, 2023, and March 31, 2024, respectively.
Brand Recognition: Compared to peers, Krsnaa has a relatively lower brand recall in the retail segment.
Competition from regional and established players, however, KDL’s established position in the PPP segment mitigates the competitive pressure to a certain extent.
my expectations
| KRSNAA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
| Revenue |
396 |
455 |
487 |
620 |
700 |
840 |
1008 |
1209 |
| Ebidta margin |
24% |
29% |
25% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
27% |
28% |
| Ebidta |
95.04 |
131.95 |
121.75 |
142.6 |
182 |
218.4 |
272.16 |
338.52 |
| Other income |
5 |
15 |
19 |
17 |
25 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
| Interest |
26 |
18 |
8 |
16 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
| deprecition |
35 |
41 |
54 |
75 |
85 |
90 |
100 |
105 |
| PBT |
39.04 |
87.95 |
78.75 |
68.6 |
97 |
118.4 |
157.16 |
213.52 |
| TAX |
37 |
21 |
23 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
| Net profit |
25 |
70 |
61 |
56 |
74 |
90 |
120 |
162 |
| CURRENT MCAP |
2586 |
|
| EXIT PE FY28 |
EX MCAP FY 28 |
CAGR |
| 25 |
4050 |
16% |
| 30 |
4860 |
23.00% |
| 35 |
5670 |
30.00% |
Dis. Invested and biased
1 Like
