I had a small position in kpit that I took as an opportunistic technical bet but sold when it rose beyond what I thought were the fundamentals. Currently waiting on the Racl concall transcript to see how they handle EVs so I can build my position further there. Apart from those two I’ve not looked anywhere else. I don’t like auto. A shift to electric vehicles wont be smooth. There will probably be a period of pain while auto shifts and il buy then when clear winners emerge. Just the thought of the number of machinery/employees etc that will need to be written off along with the public acceptance of these vehicles makes it look like a road of pain ahead.
Maybe the financiers of these vehicles/the likes of Tata elxsi/ancillaries that will be safe no matter what(for eg the car glass manufacturers… though it won’t be a tailwind for them… just business as usual) could be the play but I prefer sitting on the sidelines/increasing my Racl position until everything is clear. I’m already betting on solar so I don’t want to be stuck betting on 2 nascent sectors incase there are hiccups and delays
Yes even I will b playing this theme with ancillary. But ancillaries, it is a different story. It is a very large universe.
All issues u expressed i do agree .
Motherson sumi i am tracking coz it has a globally diversified manufacturing base and a globally diverse OEM relationship. They are with all the big automobile manufacturers in the world and cater to multiple segments in the ancillary universe. But it has large debt.
Let’s c how it goes
Managed to add full Quota of Oracle financial services in Portfolio 2 (the safer portfolio ie wife’s) at under rs. 3000/-. It’s rare to get any of these companies anywhere close to their 200 DMAs AND in oversold territories so I took the bait. Now together we own literally the whole suite of IT BFSI ie OFSS (Established product), IDA (Growing product), Expleo (Services and testing).
OFSS looks fantastic at these levels. The main con is that information is scarce from the promoters side(no Concalls/Presentations) but considering I want portfolio 2 to be less hands-on this makes sense for me.
With a well known product and with its leadership in the listed IT BFSI space in India with Tailwinds in the digitization of IT BFSI space I’m expecting growth to come back for oracle finserv even if it’s just at 7 to 8 percent per year. Add the dividend yield which could be maintained easily at 6 percent per year considering the amount of cash they generate along with the long runway of growth and this satisfied my rules of portfolio 2 regards permanence of capital and low downside especially when bought at current valuations of just 16X which means returns could have an upside too. Rites, ITC, OFSS, Piramal I’ve so far managed to be added in/around 200 dma levels.
Will wait for the rest patiently to complete Portfolio 2 in its own sweet time ie infoedge, relaxo, icici Lombard, polycab, Tata consumer, Reliance
In general, I know that many of the stocks are available at a reasonable prices TODAY when compared to last week or last month, but are we not overlooking the change in global investment strategy i.e raise in bond price yield which is making the FII move back to safer avenues.
I am not saying that we should time the market, but don’t u think that we need to wait for a correction which is bound to happen , I am expecting the market to fall another 10% (atleast 8 % in a weeks time) above and beyond todays 4-5 , I may be wrong but this writing was on the wall.
I am not to discourage anyone here, but thought of sharing my POV given that i have gained so much of insights and made money from your knowledge and findings.
Please delete this post if it is not in accordance the forums rules
There are no rules in This thread no worries 
… I am a firm believer in not overpaying. The likes of Rites/Oracle/ITC etc that I’ve been concentrating buying towards lately are fairly priced imo considering they have dividend yield as a return too. I wouldn’t be paying 50+ multiples for anything right now. If there is a crash I will just buy more in the companies Ive currently invested in.
Infact I’m hoping for crashes so I can deploy cash. Hence why I’ve switched to a tranche system for small caps instead of buying in a lump-sum and only running with the safe stocks(dividend yield) /the ones I have a huge margin of safety in(Deepak/laurus etc). Being too careful and leaving the markets altogether is risky for me. Staying… conservatively and buying on dips and crashes will lead to huge wealth creation over this decade imo and I want to be a part of it.
I’ve reached the point where I’m happy when the market rises(yay… unrealised gains ) and I’m happy when the market falls(I can buy slowly but surely).
Note: in this huge crash my overall portfolio has fallen under 2 percent. So playing safe works sometimes. I don’t have any banks or leveraged institutes and don’t plan on owning any for a few quarters or maybe even years too. I have built my portfolio around Fmcg, Pharma, Low valuation tech, quality chemicals, agriculture, renewables, dividend stocks bought at lows… basically so while my upsides have not been as high as the market of late I have some sort of downward protection and a long term outlook. The biggest risk I’ve taken is my low valuation expleo punt which I can exit at profit at any point and that ive taken a tracking position in just dial today at rs. 730
Hey @Rumble_in_the_Bronx … Thanks. Read about that. I bought just 2 shares to track it for a bit of fun. I am one of those believers that something big could happen here in the future but right now it’s quite obviously a traders game with low delivery etc. There will be a time when it’ll be right to enter. My gut instinct was enter at rs. 400 or so but I ignored it. Now il be waiting for at least a couple quarters to see how b2b performs before entering with a meaningful amount since it’s all speculation right now
In complete agreement with you and in that i feel it a juicy stock provided we enter at a right price point. Im tracking it as well. I was hoping that there would be a panic sell and would seal a deal but i suppose, i’ll have to wait for a while.
I have a confession to make @Rumble_in_the_Bronx …
I bought my tracking quantity at 730 and when it fell down to 705 later in the day I couldn’t resist and initiated a 1 percent position.
Treating just dial purely as if I’ve invested in a start up and probably the most speculative bet I’ve ever made… however, I couldn’t resist especially since technically it’s been trying to break a 3 year resistance and Friday looked like just a drawdown on the charts.
I’ve no idea what will happen here but I won’t be adding any more to my position for atleast a few years. I’m just going to hope I’ve struck B2b platform gold with my initial amount since I’ve missed all of the other similar options in the stock market and see if it works out. I’ve posted my thoughts in the just dial thread. So far it’s been a wild ride. There are high chances im going to burn my fingers here though since we know nothing about JD Mart performance. I’m betting on their database, brand, Salesforce, good balance sheet, cash cow core business to make leveraging to JD Mart a success though there’s a lot of speculation involved for obvious reasons. Let’s see how it goes.
At worst I lose opportunity cost and at max 1 percent of my portfolio… at best I get the a functional b2b platform player and the sky is the limit. I’m pretty sure il never get a tech based platform stock at under 20 PE for the next few years so this is my bet in that space.
@Malkd feeling is mutual. I had placed an order at 650/630 and was hoping that the panic selling would favour. However, it didnt. I have used their service in the past and i know the database that they have is no less than any goldmine. JD Mart should be a promising venture.
Personally, (no offence) even during an adverse event you shouldn’t be worrying as it is just 1% of your portfolio. Good luck.
will join the wagon soon.
Yup. Not worried at all. Hence why not too bothered about the 1 percent. I couldn’t risk my usual 5 percent now though. Il add and increase my holding as the story improves. If things go well I’m hoping that the 1 percent contributes 2 to 3 percent over the next few quarters and il have to add less to maintain my limit for JD … for now I’ve written my thoughts on JD in the JD thread. I am very bullish. And surprised that it’s only considered a trading bet by most tbh. Hopefully works out for both of us.
I did considered the stock as trading bet before the announcement. I had it for a considerable time and I had the purchased it as 360 level.
I have few observations from your approach
1…Warren buffet recommands for concentrated portfolio of 5 to 6 stocks,but they have controlling position in management of company.As minority share holder,i would recommand atleast 10 to 20 companies as per size of portfolio.
2…Peter lynch says,market is right in long term but in short run it is unpredictable
=Never follow share prcie,follow fundaments n earning
I want to ask u ,why u want to sell companies whose share price is not rising but fundaments are intact
I would like buy n hold approach if fundaments are intact
3…I dont follow Deepak nitrite hut it has lifelime high margin at present which is sustainable?
Hey @pragnesh
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I have a total of 20 companies. They are split between my portfolio and my wife’s portfolio as mentioned above. I have huge allocations in certain companies and sectors… but rather than trim I’m allocating future capital in other sectors so that in time Il be spread out over more companies and sectors. So I agree with you
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I barely sell any of my companies. I only sell them if my thesis breaks down or if my portfolio gets too overweight in one sector. I am a serial holder so not sure what the question is here
… I’ve Held businesses for a decade + and plan to hold the ones in my portfolio for a decade + too. I act quickly when my thesis breaks down… SBI cards there was no way id be able to justify holding it at 100+ PE when the earnings weren’t close to what management were saying they would be. So I sold at approx 80 percent profit. Kaveri seeds the more I read the more I realised there were too many contingent liabilities and promoter queries for my liking. Alembic and granules I reduced so I could go back to a tranche based system since my portfolio was 75 percent pharma( my thesis that covid would destroy visibility in every other sector broke down when the vaccine came out and I was underweight in every other sector)!. I’ve not sold any other companies and don’t plan on selling either. I take a few swing trades with small amounts of capital here and there(muthoot capital services, kpit etc) but that’s just my 1 percent allocation for swing trades when there is a short term event and I dont want long term participation. My holdings overall haven’t changed at all in portfolio (laurus, Deepak, ITC , Vaibhav, borosil etc have remained untouched… I’ve just added more) -
Deepak nitrite I noticed the change from chemical to specialty chemical back in June. I’ve posted a lot about this in the thread and Deepak Nitrite thread too. My average price is around 600 or so since I’ve been buying since 500 and stopped at 700. I wouldn’t add at current levels since everything looks priced in now(and I bet my house in it already… not literally… but almost
) … but it’s a company that il probably be passing down to my children. Their capital allocation is such that they can counter cyclicality perfectly. When basic and Perfoemance dont perform they have phenol and vice versa. now they have specialty as a long term high margin generator with sticky clients. There will be a few bust quarters… but also a lot of boom quarters…but overall should be sustainable And it will even out as fantastic earnings for the company in the long run.
That being said @Pragnesh I just measure ownership by how well I can sleep and whether I would be scared or excited to average down if they fall by 50 percent. So I don’t mind owning 5 or 6 companies tbh. Would I be able to sleep peacefully with 50 percent of my networth and get excited if Laurus/Deepak/ITC fall by 50 percent . . yes!! would be I able to do that with Borosil renew/Vaibhav etc… no… but as the years go by I probably will if the investment thesis plays out and hence why tranches… for now I can handle 5 to 10 percent. Can I sleep with more than 1 to 2 percent of the likes of expleo and just dial etc… not at all.
I’ve found that this dictates how I allocate lol. When sleep becomes a problem I diversify/trim. Maybe I’m a an idiot who was born without the fear of risk… but once I study something thoroughly I get very comfortable
Of late there’s been a lot paranoia about a market crash everywhere… This has led me to plan out all of the various scenarios possible so that I don’t get blindsided.
I’ve taken the following assumptions
a) At current portfolio value my business gives me approx 10 percent of my portfolio as a salary every 3 month(ie approx 3.33 percent of current portfolio worth per month)
b) A long term horizon of 10 years
Scenario 1: Market crashes in the short term and recovers ie a flash crash (1 to 6 months or under):
Apart from small amounts of panic and the inability to average down with more than 3.33 percent to 20 percent of current portfolio(via salary over 1 to 6 months) there is no harm or foul here
Scenario 2: Market crashes in the medium term and recovers (6 months to 1 year):
Lets me average down with 20 percent to 40 percent of current portfolios worth(via salary over 6 to 12 months) so again not too worried about this.
Scenario 3: Slow long bear period for 1 to 3 years:
Lets me SIP into my portfolio with 40 to 120 percent of my current portfolios worth at cheaper rates. So not and issue again
Scenario 4: Consolidation for 5 years:
Since period of holding is minimum 10 years all this does is give me an opportunity to keep on accumulating at lower prices.
Scenario 5: Decade long consolidation:
I can’t see this happening… but even if it does it’s just a matter of extending the timeframe. Dividends should atleast provide some relief during this period
Scenario 6: Bull run continues at CAGR of 10 to 15 percent over the decade:
Continue buying companies on dips during this run.
Obviously, this is the best case scenario and considering the risks of the first 5 scenarios can be mitigated a bit with SIPS and long term horizons I firmly believe time in the market is more important than timing it.
In short I firmly believe that:
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The market is far too risky for short and even medium term horizons
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It may be a good idea to keep aside approx 10 percent in Cash to make full use of flash or short term crashes
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SIPing on dips during the bull run OR SIPing on crashes during a bear run is compulsory.
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Investing in tranches in small/micro caps instead of lumpsums as their story improves QoQ and YoY and SIPing into safer mid/large caps on any dips could be the way forward since volatility could be a lot more in the smaller companies.
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Dividend paying stocks like ITC, Rites, Oracle near 200 dma could be good buys in lump-sum manner to give additional cash for SIP purpose in the portfolio or general expenses so that compounding is allowed to continue over this next decade
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Do not take on loans or spend money needed for expenses(atleast 6 months to 1 years worth of them) on equity. Probably the most dangerous thing to do right now.
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Stay in the market. Do not sell positions in panic. The rewards over the next decade could be life-changing if following above rules.
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Ensure quality companies with good promoters. Worst case scenario is being stuck on the sidelines with a poor company in a bull market OR losing all capital in an extreme bear market OR with no conviction to average down when the time comes. So obviously if one fails at this then all of the above pointers go moot.
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Personally I’m avoiding a direct play on financials (going with IT BFSI instead and Piramal with nbfc+pharma) since I don’t want to be exposed to leverage based companies next few years. The rewards could be huge but the risks for me are just too high.
I have spent the last few weeks rebalancing my portfolio and thoughts to fit the above plan
Disc: not a sebi advisor.
Even i was ignoring this but looks promising
In a report, the brokerage said Just Dial’s recent B2B platform launch JD Mart could give it a leg-up. The core search engine business attracts 14 crore users in a quarter, and has about 1,00,000 paid subscribers. This could help give a kickstart to the B2B business and help it scale up to compete with B2B commerce market leader IndiaMart.
“JD’s core strength is its large sales force (9,000), which should help monetize JD Mart. The company showed a strong commitment to the new initiative, earmarking $15 million for JD Mart branding and indicating it will hire senior management and a specialised sales team,” the brokerage said.
It expects JD Mart to become a competing second player with a 25 percent market share in the next three years and contribute 19-27 percent of revenues in FY23-25E.
“While IndiaMART is the leader with 150,000 paid subscribers and US$90m in revenue in the previous fiscal year, this is a fraction of the number of MSMEs in India. Given the room for growth, we think two or more B2B platforms can co-exist,” UBS stated.
The brokerage also noted that JD trades at 13x FY22E PE compared to 60x for IndiaMART, suggesting the market is ignoring JD Mart’s potential to become a relevant B2B platform. If Just Dial is able to successfully drive its sales strategy execution, it could result in a significant rerating for the stock, UBS said.
Great. No mention.
This is the link if anyone interested.
@Aniesh7 i’ve just been listening to all the Concalls of the past few years and reading all the annual reports/presentations and watching all the interviews I could. I must say… I was wrong… I always assumed just dial was a dying business with poor management. The more I listen to them and check their performance the more I’m impressed. I don’t like the core product… so i assumed noone would. Slowly beginning to realise that their customer base still likes it though and management has done wonders with it considering Google is their main competitor. Now consider this… they have 1500 crores in cash… their core business can churn out 300 crores a year and even if growth in core slows down to single digits or remains flat they have a cash cow there. So basically the B2B business Is available for free. The synergies between their current b2c business and b2b business are huge(sales fleet, businesses database) will make it easy for them to leverage it to build their b2b business. Management has already said about 200000 customers would be low hanging fruit. They’ve got 10000 downloads within days with rave reviews and it looks fantastic… and their main app has 10 million+ so they know how to get customers.
It will take 6 months or so for b2b to be monetised. Once the results start coming in post that I’m expecting a huge re rating. Add JD Xperts and there’s a lot to like here. A company in this domain with 15000 Cr cash (which will increase) can easily acquire new growth verticals too. And management have said they are looking for opportunities. All of this makes it enough for me to take a punt.
. I haven’t looked at any articles so far. Just made my own conviction and I’m already pretty convinced. Thanks for the link though.
There’s something about just dial that makes me almost feel embarrassed owning it at the moment lol so I don’t blame people for ignoring it. It’s not the usual calculated investment since there’s a lot of speculation that needs to be done… but I am banking on something huge happening here. I will add to my position if I get a chance at reasonable valuations post Q2 of next FY once actual data of the b2b business comes in.