Lupin - Is it the time to buy for long term

FY22Q2 notes:

  • US revenues ~ $184mn (albuterol and brovana led to gains + improvement in base business), should recover to $200mn+ from next quarter
  • Seeing pricing pressure in US (high single digit for Lupin)
  • EBITDA margin was ~14.6% (famotidine erosion + contribution from in-licensed brovana + Longer term albuterol contracts coming at lower prices but higher volumes) AG
  • H2 EBITDA margins will be 17-18%. Hope to get back to 20-22% margin over time (no time period given).
  • Will pay the litigation expenses of glumetza over the next 1-month ($250mn), solosec impairment charge ~ 708 cr.
  • US specialty business scaled down further (should lead to $15mn annualized savings)
  • Goa plant: Will be able to address 6 out of the 7 observations and need more time for one.
  • Albuterol: Seen sharp uptick in market share (16% generic market share with target to reach 20%)
  • Fostair ($600mn market): Seen good uptick in UK, potential to become $50mn product
  • Brovana: 55% market share
  • Spiriva: Confident of launching in June 2022 (Pithampur Unit III, compliant)
  • Dulera: Will file CRL response by FY22 end
  • R&D spends ~ 8.5% for FY22/23
  • China exposure: 15-20% by volume
  • Change in capital allocation strategy: Will allocate more towards Indian business along with moderation in US allocation
  • Spinout of oncology division, potential spinout of biosimilar division

Disclosure: Invested (position size here)

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