37% is too much but it is okay if you have a conviction. I am also invested 27% in PNB.
But i am here giving a comparison of very attractive PSU bank with this PVT bank.
Lowest NPA, book value advantage, all psu bank NPA increased except of PNB and this one.
Screenshot - 1:
SS - 2:
SS - 3:
Note - No buy/sell recommendation. Sharing just comparison for learning purpose.
Yes itâs going down, there could be multiple reasons (debt could be main) but I sure donât know the same. Can only bet on catchup of market price with earnings
https://x.com/persistencecap/status/1900439695970246664?t=akaRu8h-qEbUpZ7mOQnPhQ&s=19
Go through above, one of the DII fund thread on Samhi. Even they are not sure 
This is CAT 3 AIF run by SOIC guys
Note: Not a recommendation, just sharing notes from fellow investors
Thanks, makes sense. Itâs tested my patience though I retain my conviction. Personally think it should be over Rs.200 at least, but in the current environment, I guess if it crosses Rs.180, should be thankful! The key issue is they need to show stronger growth without increasing their NPAs and slippages. If that happens, I think the market will reward it well.
Kudos to you for backing your conviction so strongly - letâs hope it plays out well!
Update
Sold out
HDFC Bank - 1925
IDFC First - 66
Both gave 16-18% IRR
Bandhan Bank - 170
CUB as well (made some 13% post tax on CUB)
Keeping Cash (sold out of emotion maybe, banks kind of shot)
Added profits from CUB to Ugar Sugar works
Sugar shortage this season, and promoters loaded. So just gambling here, hopefully not much to lose
Update
Sold off Samhi around 195 on the day of GIC news (news based selling, short term thinking took over)
Added most of the proceeds from above and samhi to
Ugar Sugar - 42-43
Federal Mogul Goetze - 333
Now Ugar is 20% and Federal mogul is 20% of folio. Federal is more of a special situation play, supreme court hearing in Aug for mandatory open offer price ( expecting for some 600+ same as last time and ruling out 295 as approved by SAT)
Donât see much downside in Federal although growth is almost nil, cash per share is around Rs. 100. Found to be pretty cheap. Worst to worst I may not lose and may make 20-30% in a year
Note: Not a recommendation on both
Could you please elaborate more on your reasons for 650+ open offer for Federal Moghul.
I have also started my research on this but thought of checking with you and if you can share a detailed note on your this position.
In short
Last time around similar case happened SEBI used independent valuer around 2019-2021 sometime I guess, not sure and SAT agreed with it. Valued at Rs. 600/ share
Now this time SAT sided with company, but SEBI went to supreme court. Logically if Supreme sides with SEBI then independent valuer would have to value and could be around 600 minimum as it was valued at that price back then when cash balance was not 500 cr which it is at present
Open offer is kind of mandatory as both the times itâs triggered from parent company acquisition and merger by Tenneco and Pegasus respectively
Although not sure what would open offer implication be (havenât researched on this) but if at all, price will be rigged up as market will see optimism. If not the worst is I am getting 1270 EV company at 130-150 Free cash flow
Negative thing is all companies in this sector are cheap I think due to terminal value loss from EV disruption, but I ll take that risk as this is second high market share player next to shriram pistons I guess
One thing I am also thinking is their practice of 80 Cr maintenance cost every year for a 560-580 Cr gross block which I find strange. I think they might be just feeding parent company in the name of maintenance (just a hunch)
No concall or IPs from 2022 and no news except mandatory disclosures. Itâs like they donât care anymore, itâs just a cash throwing company for promoters. They may have chalked out way to pull cash out who knows
End of the day thesis is
Margin of safety is nice, good cash/share, cheap, dividend optionality, capex optionality (highly unlikely), open offer playing out or return at par with market if positive/ downside protection if market turns bad
