Hi Valuepickrs
Please read down and suggest. A bit lengthy, appreciate the patience
Equity Holdings as on 2023-12-08. As on today returns could be +2% (i.e. 27%) over what is mentioned here in portfolio table
| S. No | Symbol | Company | Sector | Qty>1 Yr | Qty<1Yr | Average Buy Price | Last Closing Price | Unrealized P&L Pct | Invested Sizing | Current Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARE&M | Amararaja | Industrials | 100% | 0% | 554 | 752 | 35.7% | 5.64% | 6.11% |
| 2 | AVANTIFEED | Avanti Feed | Consumer Staples | 47% | 53% | 369 | 402 | 8.8% | 5.52% | 4.80% |
| 3 | AWHCL | Antony Waste | Industrials | 0% | 100% | 245 | 462.85 | 88.6% | 1.66% | 2.50% |
| 4 | CUB | City Union Bank | Financials | 0% | 100% | 121 | 155.9 | 28.6% | 13.87% | 14.25% |
| 5 | DELTACORP | Delta Corp | Consumer Discretionary | 0% | 100% | 145 | 137.3 | -5.4% | 1.34% | 1.01% |
| 6 | GLS | Glenmark Life | Health Care | 91% | 9% | 419 | 635 | 51.5% | 4.07% | 4.93% |
| 7 | HDFCBANK | HDFC Bank | Financials | 100% | 0% | 1348 | 1653.2 | 22.7% | 4.27% | 4.18% |
| 8 | HEMIPROP | Hemisphere Prop | Real Estate | 100% | 0% | 116 | 143.05 | 23.6% | 2.72% | 2.69% |
| 9 | HERANBA | Heranba Ind | Materials | 100% | 0% | 546 | 359.15 | -34.2% | 3.38% | 1.78% |
| 10 | IDFCFIRSTB | IDFC First Bank | Financials | 100% | 0% | 39 | 88.07 | 128.8% | 1.41% | 2.57% |
| 11 | IGL | Indraprastha Gas | Utilities | 0% | 100% | 393 | 401.65 | 2.2% | 4.05% | 3.31% |
| 12 | KOTAKBANK | Kotak Mahindra | Financials | 0% | 100% | 1755 | 1838.45 | 4.7% | 16.21% | 13.56% |
| 13 | KRSNAA | Krsnaa Diag | Health Care | 15% | 85% | 419 | 665.75 | 59.0% | 13.68% | 17.36% |
| 14 | LUXIND | Lux Ind | Consumer Discretionary | 100% | 0% | 1939 | 1371.65 | -29.3% | 1.42% | 0.80% |
| 15 | MANAPPURAM | Manappuram Fin | Financials | 100% | 0% | 111 | 163.85 | 48.1% | 5.93% | 7.01% |
| 16 | MATRIMONY | Matrimony | Communication Services | 56% | 44% | 624 | 541.05 | -13.3% | 2.30% | 1.59% |
| 17 | THYROCARE | Thryocare Diag | Health Care | 36% | 64% | 539 | 609.45 | 13.1% | 3.59% | 3.24% |
| 18 | ZEEL | Zee Limited | Communication Services | 0% | 100% | 182 | 278.95 | 53.5% | 2.71% | 3.32% |
| 19 | Cash | 6.23% | 4.97% | |||||||
| 21 | Overall Portfolio | 25.2% | 100% | 100% |
| Exists Till date | Avg Buy Price | Exit Price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cochin Ship | 350 | 1070 | |
| Repco Home | 155 | 300 | Willing to get back below sale price |
| Hero Moto | 2250 | 2997 | |
| Midhani | 180 | 293 | |
| Muthoot | 1249 | 1234 |
Rough Total Dividend Earned - 2% on invested cost. Added Exit cash back onto portfolio, around 7% of portfolio (on cost basis - Invested sizing) invested is back from realised profits. Will be paying some good tax on exits as all are this FY exits
Core Philosophy:
Could say maybe a mix of Value and GARP, bottom up only. Not sure what would it be going forward but this is what I am following now. I do not study business in deep sense but try to understand what I am paying and how much I can lose/ gain in a rough scenario. Top priority is clean Balance sheet for high allocation bets, bottom allocation is towards deeply mis-priced as per me or kind of speculation
Rational Summary:
I do not read up much deep into companies, rather rely on balance sheet and rough math for valuations and industry economics. All my positions are built over time from April-22 (Started as got savings from corporate) to lets say till -12-09-2023. I do not calculate current XIRR as such but a bit back through m-profit got to know its at 35% or so, feel very lucky that its trending at this level almost similar levels as if mutual funds with SIP done in last two years. I keep holding cash in bank account if I am not sure and this is all my money though not much. No Mutual funds or Debt or anything else. Very short summaries of my rationale shared below for each position
Amararaja: High lead prices and cyclical bottom margins while I bought, not looking to exit as I believe it is still reasonably priced at around 17-18 PE and good chashflow with clean balance sheet. Yes growth has been slow and could be slow going forward as well but optionality of Lithim ion and pretty safe revenue share in replacement market which is kind of here to stay for medium term
Avanti Feeds: Again clean balance sheet with excess cash with optionality of pet care business. Mean reversion play, as current margins are supressed due to resaons we all know ecuador, high raw material etc. Might or might not pan out but if I can make 100% due to favorable conditions within next 1-2 years still the cagr is 20% plus which is decent
Antony Waste: I like their Waste to energy initiative and bought at lows, not sure when to exit but keeping this for now. Yes its a B2G business, but waste is a big issue and might do well if not due to cashflow but due to thematic play as per herd behaviour in the market. Plan to exit if cash flow is not visible in near future. Not high allocation
City Union Bank: High allocation as I believe its tails I don’t lose much but Heads I make good enough kind of bet. Has historical evidence of quality, ROEs, ROAs etc. Growth might comeback as per management guidance by next FY and was trading near 1.1 PB when I got it, Wish to keep long term (3 or more years) if it doesnt run up much in short term
Delta Corp: Pure speculation play based on logic of GST nonsense, Yes management is not great but possibility of 20% plus in a year. In terms of business, no one knows after that GST call. Less allocation
Glenmark Life: I got it due to high dividend yield at that point in time, pretty much value buy with high cash flow, reasonable growth, clean balance sheet and good margins. Related party transaction is sure a concern but NIRMAs acquisition terms might help in short term. Honestly no idea about long term business prospects. Kind of confused on exit as well
HDFC Bank: Evergreen history, got it at reasonable price. Maybe could have had high allocation but did not go that route due to merger
Hemisphere Prop: Asset play due to their land bank, its a pure speculation and no business logic as such. Math is there as Assets are 30% of market cap but market would not recognise unless some business move by management. Exit really not sure
Heranba Ind: Thought good historical growth, capacity expansion but chemical down turn played a spoil sport. Whole industry is in doldrums. Loss aversion preventing from exit. This could be a big mistake in portfolio
IDFC First: Vaidyanathan 
Indraprastha Gas: I think too much negative priced in due to the EV policy bill. Maybe it will not be a 2x bet but very clean balance sheet, always optionality of charging infra setup, new GAs although not much visible volumes. Consider it as better than Cash or FD in current market as there is dividend yield. IGL and KotaK are very recent entries, like in October and Nov
Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak exit factor uncertainty is gone, could inch up once the new head at helm proves. Growth is back in whole industry, I kind of like their unsecured loan growth as they are nicely cushioned with high CAR and less NPAs. This unsecured growth helps in keeping the NIM at good enough position and not take ROE drastically down with high CAR. I like that Kotak still holds 25% and believe he wont let it go bad. When cycle turns Kotak will regain old glory is what I believe. Currently trading at low calculations in comparison to its historical numbers
Krsnaa Diag: Comfortable entry price, low valuations due to B2G nature. Need to keep close watch on cashflow, growth would come as contracts are executed. I believe Krsnaa is a business where ROCEs will improve as capex matures into regular business. But who knows what might pan out as we go ahead
Lux Ind: Did not pay much heed to management issues while I got in which was a mistake. Kind of mean reversion play as raw material prices cool down and hopefully when demand is back. I am not sure what to do with this, plan to exit but again loss aversion
Manappuram Fin: Good dividend yield when I got it and low to reasonable valuations. Good management, low NPAs, IPO of Asirvaad, and no red flags in funds (no Commercial papers and other bad stuff for ALM issues). Dont plan to exit
Matrimony: Brand matters in long run. High spends on marketing keeping the margins low, the day this will go off stock will move is what I believe. Yes growth is not there, I got this basis the past and not the future as such. Great management and they are exploring avenues for growth. I think I have high cost price in this counter but happy as allocation is not high
Thyrocare Diag: I believe this is highly priced and keeping for now. Growth is there but margins are not helping in comparison to past, dividend yield is the cushion I see as positive. Pledge removal could playout for short term
Zee Limited: Was lucky to get it at that price and if sony announces merger in lets say next 1 year, will keep it else will exit
Exits till now (More like regret selling as market has run up)
Cochin Ship: Felt too high a valuation and exited to protect gains. Not sure if it was a right move. Opportunity loss of 70% on buy price
Repco Home: Management seems to be doing fine job, was not sure of fast run up and exited. Opportunity loss of around 60% over buy price
Muthoot: Great company, but somehow I felt Manappuram is enough
Hero Moto: Did not anticipate such high growth. Got it during tax claim issues and sold recently before it moved. Opportunity loss of 33% over buy price
Midhani: Again exited due to run up and not comfortable with Defence stories
Now I am confused on what to do going forward now that market is at kind of highs although still might not peak out, not able to find low effort high return picks :). And do not want to pay tax by exiting short term positions. Suggestions would really help me going forward
Also believe none of my portfolio stocks are in overvalued zone, need inputs here. Willing to deploy remaining cash if I find low effort high return picks
Was Seriously looking at Nippon HSI ETF and Alibaba to buy, but our tax laws are too harsh for outside India investments. LTCG is 20% and STCG is income bracket with 24 months as period
I am thinking now if I should replace Heranba with Shardacrop given corp gov redflags with Heranba. UPL over Shardacrop because it’s Largecap and I am comfortable building big position even upto 10% if opportunity arises, I do not want to do that with Shardacrop. As on debt, yes it’s pretty high and can be a double edged sword only time will reveal. With interest rate cuts around some relief at that end, also Valuation wise UPL is better than Sharda I feel being a Largecap