Lazycap's Portfolio - Feedback

24

Hi What is the high conviction in IGL to up 10%?

25

Hi

For me it’s more about price at which I buy. Current valuation is such that the probability of loss seems to be almost negligible. Dont know how long I can hold

Company has seen many regulatory hiccups from the past, same is also highlighted in valuepickr thread of IGL. High probability they might just pass on the cost to consumer if not immediately slowly, even if ROCE falls to 17-18% I think a PE band of 15-20 is fair enough for a business like IGL

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26

Am just scared because of valuation we should not compromise on growth…what you feel ?How much they grow… and do the have any moat(may be noob)

27

Growth might moderate for short term but over let’s say 3 years timeline it might just be there

There is policy support from Govt in terms of gasification of fuel and growth from new GAs. At fundamental level CNG cost per Km is lower than Petrol/ Diesel cost per Km. Unless heavy disruption from EV ( Which doesn’t seem probable) it should do ok

Moat as per me, IGL is monopoly in its markets with already layed out pipelines etc. No way others can establish without atleast leasing pipeline from IGL which can be source of revenue as well. Yes Govt is involved but then that’s the risk we take basis our individual judgement

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28

What’s your take on 15th Nov announcement whereby there is 20 percent anticipated volume reduction

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29

This is the reason for such drop in share, it’s short term. Over 2-3 years this should normalise in terms of gradual price hikes or volume growth. Didn’t do exact calculations

Market reactions are generally over pessimistic to such news. Maybe pricing in further reductions as well in APM allocation who knows

30

One cent: I agree EV will take very huge time to catch-up…

31

Update

Sold off IGL fully at 388, it ran up 25% odd in 2 weeks time due bonus shares and GST inclusion of CNG I guess

Just took some profit. Holding 12% cash now, might enter back into IGL around 330s if at all it falls

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32

Update

Added few proceeds from above sale to Credit access around 880 per share

Now CREDAG is 14-15% of folio on cost basis. Simply because of risk reward, don’t see much downside unless heavy loss reported in Q3 & Q4 nos

33

Update

Used full cash and also sold Radiantcms, everything is added to creditaccess grameen. Now Avg price of around 930 and position size of 20-22%

Let’s see how it goes, cyclical bet. Might fall further as well for sure, will see if I need to add more if it falls more. But will be holding for the upcycle. Sold Radiant as it’s not a significant position and may add later if needed

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34

Update

Sold out UPL round 540s, made some 20% return, 16% post STCG. Sold 20% of Kotak at around cost (cash proxy)

All of the above added to CREADG at different prices, now holding CREADG at 903 avg price and as 25% position of folio

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35

Update

Trimmed Kotak and added to Samhi around 150 levels

Now Samhi is second biggest position after CREADG, around 18-20% of folio at avg price of 165

Added some bandhan bank around 130

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36

Update

Fully exited leftover position of Kotak at 1980s. Made some 20% in Kotak pre tax, so 16% post tax

Added all proceeds to Samhi at 138, now Samhi is 20%+ weight of portfolio, I think avg price would be155 from all downward averaging

Now only HDFC bank left to rotate if needed

37

Hi lazycapinvestor…why do you sell kotak bank? I see further upside in it, once quarter results are announced. Will love to hear your views.

38

Hi

Not that Kotak is bad, upside sure could be there and much safer bet

But wanted to rotate out to small cap given the selloff last few days. Samhi felt like something with better risk reward than Kotak, although probability of loss of capital is sure high in smallcap like Samhi

Expecting this quarter results will be strong for Samhi

Also I have added CUB heavily at 150 (more than half of current portfolio) with temporary money (2-3 months or more not sure). So just playing the banking part through CUB temporarily

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39

Hi @LazycapInvestor what is your current total portfolio looks as ? And can you give like summary 1-2 liner for each it will be helpful.

40

Hi

That’s too much work for Lazyman like me.Nonethless, below is the current portfolio. CUB is just temporary position with temporary money

CUB 37% -150 (avg price)
SAMHI 15% - 154
CREADG 15% - 903
Manappuram 11% - 128
Krsnaa 9% - 450
HDFC 4%- 1410
GPT health 3-4% -154
Bandhan 3-4% -147
IDFCFB 1% - 38

As you can see if CUB is removed most of folio is in top 4-5 names

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41

Interesting portfolio! I can never get this concentrated. But I am curious about CUB given I am invested there. What do you mean it’s a temporary position and why such a large position then? Is it just that you are parking your money there assuming it will not go down or may go up slightly or do you have some other rationale? Would love to hear your thoughts. Thanks!

42

Hi

For CUB yes , hoping it won’t go down further much as already at PB of 1.1-1.2

It’s a temporary position yes and hence the large position on high conviction risk reward bet

CUB results should be above average as per management from here on and given the decreasing NPA trend, I think it can be valued anywhere between 1.5 to 1.7 with let’s say BV of 130 it should be at 180-200 range. So it’s a good 20-25% return. If you read my thread I have done this before on CUB in the past, 120 buy and 170 sell

But then I don’t know if this is gonna happen again

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43

Oh Samhi i have noticed many of fellow investors bullish on it. So can be consensus at this point but why it’s falling at 12 times EV/EBITDA seems to be trading at bottom end of valuations.