From the HIV drug perspective I understood the tailwind which the company going to get. Any idea are we going to get any benefit with Pfizer being the innovator just like the drug founded by Merck.
Dr Chava says in interview at the end part that laurus looking forward to launch of oral covid medicine where Laurus will have an important role to play.
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The link that I posted was to clarify that it is a fake news . The link I posted clearly states that its fake. You can reopen the link and check again. I had posted it in response to a link that was posted for the arrest
That’s why the link started with " fact-check"
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Uploading: E9BB6E45_3754_4AE8_80F6_D051426CCD8E_191435.pdf…
Dr chava and his wife transferred their share holdings to nsn holdings. I request accounting experts to comment on the motive behind the move. And what sort of benefits chava w
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After dr chava formed NSN holdings I did some research on motives behind forming a holding company/firm. my findings are as below
Total number of shares 124126740
The amount of dividend he gets before farming holding company is 9.93 crores and he has to pay 42.7% I.e 4.24 crores as income tax. After forming holding company the tax rate for the holding company goes from 42.7% to 25% I.e only 2.48 crores. Tax reduces 17.3 %.
Normally promoters form the holding company to increase their shareholding from the dividends given by the target companies as its a very tax efficient way to do so. Hence in this month or next month we may expect some buying from NSN holdings after the dividend gets credited. I can’t see any other reason to form the holding company other than to increase the share holding.
For more clarifications one can visit
So in future the dividends from laurus could rise substantially to aid promotors to increase their stake in the company.
Above all are my assumptions based on the existing tax laws in the country. I request the senior members to point out if there are any wrong assumptions.
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Hi,
I did not understand the fundamental risk you are talking about. From accounting perspective, you are saying that company has more borrowings & liabilities than reserves, but why you are not accounting for the assets? What fundamental risk do we get by comparing Reserves against Borrowings+liabilities?
Regarding the FII/DII selling, I don’t see any change in institutional holding (FII+DII) over last 4 quarters, except that promoter holding has moved to retail.
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Borrowing + liabilities greater than reserves…what kind of financial metric is this? Never heard of this one. Please do help us understand how this can be used to analyse companies
I have heard about debt/ equity, net debt/ equity, total debt/ ebitda and net debt/ ebitda
The one you mention is new.
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So trade payables, other liabilities is part of debt? 
Then you should perhaps adds receivables, inventory and net fixed assets as a part of the cash balance and create new accounting measures
It is important to learn accounting/ finance before commenting about the same. Half or in this case quarter knowledge is very dangerous.
You might be completely right that the stock might go down further or the stocks you mention, "abbot labs, biocon, syngene & sanofi " are better bets…but what I cannot understand why you have taken the onus of of “dissuading people from averaging down”?
BTW promoter sold down his personal stakes to repay debt to bring down pledges.
FIIs and DIIs have increased their stake in the company. Who are you to pass judgement who is a prudent or non-prudent FII/ DII? If one investor sold, someone else bought right?
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To begin with some fun, Hey @ASPACETIMEBOT - as your name suggests; are you a bot ?
whose job is to create panic among others?
Coming to this reply – I personally don’t have any emotional connect with any company. Because if you have emotional connect as an investor you cannot make rational decision to sell if the company does really bad. So this is not any reply post to justify my investment thesis is right and you are wrong.
First, there is a concept called “Weekend effect”, where people used to worry about their investments on every weekends and thinking to sell their holdings on Monday.
In your post, you have mentioned a new concept of “Borrowing + liabilities > reserves”. I agree you want to have some margin of safety but as per your metric, its slightly difficult to invest with such philosophy. It’s basically you are telling like, “A person will default his 30 lakhs home loan since he doesn’t have 30 lakhs in his bank account. Since you are not considering his next month salary to pay EMI and other assets like gold/stocks etc which the person already has”.
Second, There are many times which FIIs, DIIs failed to spot the company early on and they poured the money after 2x, 3x or even 10x. Remember Peter Lynch saying, “Spot the company early on before the Institutions”. (E.g: Balaji Amines, Alkyl Amines, Saregama, NGL Fine chem etc., )
FIIs reduced their stake even in HDFC Bank, so is it bad sign ?
Promoters continuously reducing their stake even in Divis and Dr.Reddy for the past 2 years.
Except September, remaining all the months FIIs are net seller in the whole Indian equities itself, on the other hand DIIs are buyer. So whose side are you?
When it comes to long term investment, promoter quality is important along with business moat.
Like Vaibhav global, Tesla, Apple kind of companies are in a verge of collapse but they bounced back.
So these kind of companies promoter itself a moat and Laurus is one such company.
You forgot to mention the Laurus 10 year contract which is almost 25% of revenue of the Divis revenue.
Almost all the pharma and chemical companies fallen more than 10% in this correction except few.
One more thing if you notice in the Indian equities, all the companies which posted good results and profits are falling. Those new age startups/Platform companies are commanding high valuations and increasing despite posting loss"
I am in no way want to back up the Laurus labs with these positive vibes. If you really have any solid proof to back your claims, I am ready to look into it and even accept your anti-thesis for the company, rather than providing some cooked up stories or theories with some accounting gimmicks.
Also for other retailers, whenever you see some negative/positive news, your mind wants someone to post by confirming your thesis and this is called “Confirmation bias”. You basically want to hear what your mind wants to receive. So analyse yourself and clarify it without taking judgement or influence from others.
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Can you please elaborate on the Laurus having 10 year contract bit ? Thansk in advance.
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Learnt so so much from this forum and the great intellects here very indebted to them my few thoughts…Brother Bot Request atleast see the last interview of Doc Chava with Neeraj on YouTube most of your questions will be answered…we all want huge sales growth, that needs expansion and that costs money, I think Even in q2 gross margins from material cost were roughly same as other last quarters checked from screener, the material cost of last many quarters roughly the same only employee cost has increased due to huge expansion in future , have to hire and do R&D in advance… depreciation has increased as we all know due to build up of assets… And Dr Chava has assured of 30 % gross margins abit here or there for future also which is good and they are maintaining have to see year wise, & he always says we track gross margins and are serious about it… So to maintain 30% if required they may increase rate, as they are backward integrated China doesn’t affect them much only solvents which they use have turned expensive…
Even shipping cost as of now have reduced by roughly 40%… n soon operational leverage will kick in as sales are bound to increase, Hardly a pe of 24 , and price to sales is of 4.68 and expecting huge things from this company(nothing compared to the huge huge growth it is staring at) … Please check the darlings of stock market trading from 80… To. 1600 pes and loss making companies increasing loss Quarter on quarter check their gross margins,Roe,Roce, we will have lots of admiration for Laurus… Very very few companies have gross margins hovering around 30, Only real problem of Laurus this Quarter was reduce in sale of Arv Api and even from this month or max next sales are picking up h2 is always better than h1 as per Dr Chava…as this market is also poised to grow, also as per article from biospace on 4th Nov 2021…(can check on internet)Antiretroviral (ARV) Agents Market Registers Strong Growth as Efforts to Curb Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Escalates Also antiretroviral (ARV) agents market is projected to register a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2021 and 2031 , the only engine which is slow of Laurus will get boost with this…
And also If pfizer, merck(through MPP) covid pill gets approval sooner rather than later then it will be a game changer for hiv drug producers, as laurus can produce both Molnupiravir (merck) & Ritonavir in real low prices & help millions of people including LMIC to easily fight Covid, trying to understand the business, they are slowly and smartly shifting from arv api dependence to non arv api, fdf, Cdmo,bio , (this is how I judge a visionary , cleverly beforehand responding to changing scenarios) the last three are stars and hugely underestimated… laurus was never dependent on Covid… The problems of Aids, Cancer, diabetes,cardio are massive & for real and laurus has to cater to them, post Covid think there will be more focus on them,
Bio has hardly started and only one customer wants all 4 fermenters which they had to deny…
and they are planning 1 million capacity imagine the growth with good margins… The theme of plant based meats ,milk is a very good theme to play here, plant based meats start ups need companies with volume like laurus Bio to reduce their cost for it to go mainstream, Richcore acquisition by Dr Chava I think was a steal, looking at its future, 16 years of their experience in bio… He cut down on 16 years of gestation , please go to linked and check the profile of Subu his messages U will understand how highly he is regarded…180Kl will be operational before December 21 huge huge market for this… He is already planning 1 million liters and many say he is brilliant n will achieve this before schedule…
The FDF capacity and the new synthesis 10 year contract all know about so no need to mention about the massive growth here but this is just the beginning…Dr Chava rightly said no one will give a 10 year huge contract if our credentials are doubtful all in all even if he achieves 70 % of what he says I will be happy… Being a visionary he builds capacities before demand sets in… Was greatly impressed by his last lines TOUGH TIMES ARE GOOD FOR TOUGH LEADERS don’t know technicals so don’t know about price but my gut feeling is either some big investor is selling or its game of operators to scare retail don’t know am not an expert…or last so many days FIIs are continuously selling Indian market & this has a very high FII shareholding… Cant say…I only try to see business
But will give Laurus atleast one year, picture will be very clear by then, again many people say Dr Chava ne bewakoof banaya sold at high rates…he and his partner sold shares in nos of crores around March 21 for 368 Rs per share, could have waited to 700, he sold to release pledge…pls see his video on you tube regarding pledge shares you will get an idea how Honest humble, having good integrity he is… the Selling is in few lakhs last few months is by relatives over them I think he cannot exercise control… Some say they must do buyback… I personally feel is they just sold shares thats the last thing to do, to remove pledge so dont think they have that kind of money right now, or they would not have sold shares, as a company they shouldn’t buyback now as they are spending 1000 crores this year and approx 700 crores next year for expansion and thats better thing to do if you think from a business point of view other than being a pharma expert what a capital allocator he is, bought richcore at a fantastic price, honestly very impressed by Dr Chava and Subu of Bio a few wise people have said and I agree Laurus will be one of the best pharma companies of India within 3 years, and will not be surprised if we get 4 or 3 individual companies from this giving tough competition to their respective peers viz …Laurus Api, laurus fdf, laurus cdmo/synthesis, Laurus Bio invested so biased no reco please DYOR
Please let me know if I am wrong anywhere as have bought a few months back and still learning about this company, many ups n downs should be & will be part of this journey how they tackle them is important n till date am greatly impressed by the management, the more I study the more it positively surprises me, will keep tracking fundamentals quarterly not sold any shares sorry for the lengthy message take care stay safe
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There is a error I can see I made in the above article excuse me for that Dr Chava has assured of 30% ebitda margins not gross margins, as am not good in accounting so missed it, they track gross margins & those are pretty stable, once sales kicks in say a increase by 200 crores reference to q2 operational leverage kicks in n ebitda should be around 33% like before… Also in Q1 when Dr Chava was giving interview to Ravi Dharmasi ET now big picture he always says we think like a start up company and we DO NOT take risks on quality, safety and regulatory… What risks we take is in capacity, and what we need in one year we build that before 6 months… These he feels are not risks but investment and help them to capture opportunity ahead of time n competition. In short as they are getting experience and what took them years are now taking them months to build, he says we are risk takers here and risk averse in other areas like regulatory, quality… So due to experience things will get better as years roll on as the old saying goes fortune favours the bold. USfda n other risks do remain as with other pharma companies think so far Laurus has fared pretty well can hope n pray same continues in future…
On a lighter note…Think markets should only expect Laurus to give good growth quarter on quarter in sales and profits if its ready to give it a pe of minimum 80 and above which even high pe walas are not able to live up to😉
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Dear Inthingakhlak, there is an editing option available, which will be displayed in the bottom of each message we post. One can always use that option to edit for correction, for any inadvertent mistakes in the original message. We too share your conviction.
Thank you.
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Transfer/movment of shares from Chava to Chava
C81619A4_8755_47BD_ACC6_C734851E3ECE_193149.pdf (bseindia.com)
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Margins are hit almost 90% of companies this time due to rise in commodity, fuel and logistics costs… This may still have an overhnang for Q3 as well. However good companies doing capex and long ter, contracts are reasonably at good valuation. 1-2 bad qtrs just due to margin rather gives good chance for accumulation. Let them fall down (dont catch the falling knife) if they take support then grab there or wait for reversal. like Lauraus did today so is PI, Navin/ DN are all showing signs of reversals/
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